Top Diwali Stock Picks

100% Agreed

 

My first Choice is Larsen & Tuobro because it trading at its year low and now government has approved 49% FDI in defence. From here I am expecting 40% return from current CMP@ 1348.

Second choice would be AllCargo logistic becasue of GST Bill.

 

Sheru tips.... short term...
11th Oct.....
Buy Ashiana housings @ 164 for target of 200..

BUY DCB BANK @ 82 for target of 100

Buy Good luck steel @ 90 for target of 110

Buy Nitin spinners @ 58 for target of 72

Buy Hsil @ 284 for target of 340....

Time frame 15 > 30 > 45 days...

 

How about Atul Auto, Singer India, Infosys and Polaris Consulting

 

Government has allowed 100% fdi in poultry farming. So will SKM egg and Venkys benefit?

 

Yes, You are correct that Government has allowed 100% fdi in poultry farming. But you should not totally depend on FDI factor.
If you look Debt Equity Ratio of both the comnapies then you will realiaze both can be risky bets for long term.

 

Yes. You are right.

 

Low cost housing schemes are just a eyewash. Poor people will never be able to buy houses. These schemes will not suceed. So I think that you should rethink about Ashiana housing. DCB is a long term candidate for portfoilio. Even Nitin Spinners, Siyaram Silk, Vardhman Textile, Nandan Denim and Arvind are good.

 

My top pick will be Shilpa Medicare. The Capex Cycle is almost behind them, they are in the oncological space and have a solid track record.

My second pick would be Granules India and Camlin Fine in equal measure.

Finally, I would keep a solid eye on Kitex Garments and Kaveri Seeds.

Discl : all the stocks, except Kaveri Seeds, form a significant part of my portfolio.

 

SHILCHARTECH now 181 could reward well. Fundamentals are exceedingly well.

 

Good start for all my picks... enjoy the ride till each stock hits my targets...

 

I would like to request members to explore syngene spunoff from biocon. The ipo of syngene oversubscribed 34 times and the shares are trading at more than 25 % above the IPO price.

Syngene is in contract research and will start manufacturing on its own by 2017. the roe of syngene is more than 20 % whereas the roe of its parent biocon is around 14%. To me it appears to be value unlocking by biocon.

In my view The valuation of the company needs to be assessed by investinvestor based on his risk profile.

 

Chemfab alkalies and TCI.

 

my picks are HSIL 287 and NIIT 86. HSIL is leader is sanitary ware business and glass containers. NIIT is leader in education and corporate training.

 

@Sonia buying at 30 PE is not advisable even though bull market is going on. so rethink on the same before you buy as an investment. for a trade it is quite OK.Thanks for sharing.

 

Kitex is a very interesting one for various reasons :

1. Is a simple PE approach enough to value a growth stock?

2. If Forward Earnings CAGR is equally important, how do you really estimate the forward earnings? Normally you depend on management guidance. This management is known for its aggressive guidance which they do achieve but normally with a time lag of anything between two quarters to a year. How do you discount the guidance and by how much?

3. Are they any other textile player or a player who has found an interesting niche in infants segment with only 12 - 14 players in the list of global buyers? How do you factor this in?

4. How do you factor in the data that they have a revenue of USD 90 million, an addressable market of close to USD 10 Bn in the U.S. alone? And that a significant part of this will eventually reside in these 14 firms of which Kitex is the third largest today?

5. Will the eventual merger of KCL with Kitex Garments be fair to minority shareholders ?

6. Why on earth do they have cash of almost 200 crores in banks in forex ? Why are they missing out on the interest on this if held as INR? Indeed, does the cash really exist? Or is this Satyam part two?

7. How will they deal with the TPP?

8. Given the clear headroom, competences and industry structure, Kitex will grow. But will it grow as per the guidance? As per dizzy expectations around it?

9. If it does not, will the PEs sustain?

10. All the above are reasons PE has already deflated to around 32.

11. There are no simple answers where Kitex is concerned. I proceed with the assumption that there is an interesting and sustainable opportunity but growth and profitability will not sustain at these levels.

12. Given that, I buy but very very cautiously on really bad days and have no expectations of a 3x kind of return in the medium term. ( which management continues to insist is possible) I buy for a very simple reason : Kitex is a damn good business which is run very well.

 

I don't know much about Kitex,but now a days there are large no of small and mid cap funds in market and always in search of good ideas and Why less than 3% total holding by FII and DII combinedly. It is mostly held by non institutnal investers.

 

Yes, that is another red flag as well. I think funds will not like Mr. Sabu Jacobs style of functioning. The main overhang is the INR 200 crores in fx, the TPP and a generally over enthusiastic guidance.

 

One note worthy positive bat. Kites is its relations with the employee's. Textile industry is a Labour intensive industry. It is not easy running labour intensive business in Kerala without Labour troubles. But to the credit of Kitex as reported elsewhere in the forum there has been no labour trouble what's so ever so far. Shows management's commitment towards employer, employee relations and eventually their business acumen.

 

FIIs held large chunk in Amtek, Eros, Alok ind., and a spate of infra cos. such as Era infra, GMR, IVR etc., What's the fate of these cos., now?