View on the following scrips

hello friends, I require your view on the following stocks, which are in my portfolio with a long term view

1. Fortis health: 150 shares@ 145
2. Kitex garment: 30shares@ 800 (recently added)
3. HSIL: 80shares@ 400
4. MCX : 20 shares@ 1190
5. DHFL: 100shares@ 400
6. Claris Life Sciences: 50shares@240
7. Biocon: 80shares@ 450
8. JB chem: 150 shares@ 190
9. Axis bank: 50 shares@ 570
10. South indian bank: 1500shares@ 25
11. DCB bank: 200 shares@ 105
12. Genus power: 1000 shares @ 20
13. IDFC: 100 shares@ 150
14. JK tyre: 300shares@ 98
15. Suprajit engineering 200shares @ 120
16. Escorts: 300 shares@ 120
17. Ashok leyland: 750 shares @ 61
18. Tata global bev: 252 shares @ 139
19. Godrej prop: 150 shares@ 245
20. JVL agro: 1000 shares @13

I wish to invest further an amount of Rs.2lacs in either of the above and also like Greenply, IFGL refractories and Asian Granito. Friends i require your views as to which scrip is to be added and which of them should be eliminated or some other scrips replacing the above. I have a view of 5-7 years and can SIP an amount of Rs. 30000 every month.

 

Fortis healthcare is in an exciting business but it seems management is not that good which is reflected in low roe and roce.even they are not able to turn their profits into cash.Positive is that recently Rakesh jhunjhunwala baught into it.

Kitex seems in a good spot , but it has already run up a lot in price which reduces the chances for further appreciation wrt its fundamentals.

 

thanks sir for sharing ur valuable info..will take the same into consideration. Would like to know ur view about greenply also.

 

Good stock selection. I would say its better if you could limit your stocks to 15 or less. May be you can gradually reduce the number.

One more comment, I don't see any IT or NBFCs stock in your portfolio. Its better to have at least one stock from each of this category.

 

Thanks mr. gautam for sharing your valuable comments and look forward to take ur suggestions seriously by reducing the no. and going for nbfc and it realted stocks.

 

I agree completely.

 

Greenply is in a capital intensive industry they need to invest both in fixed assets and in inventory and receivables which is a negative.
But it is clear they have improved their performance in last 3 years , cash flow have improved in last 3 years.
So you need to decide yourself whether you want to invest in it or not, As their are some things which favors
them like they compete against un-organised sector, also to enter this sector you need government license.


But personally i like businesses like MCX/CARE where you dont need to continually invest and whatever your business earns it can distribute it to shareholders as dividend or share buyback.

 

you may find this link helpful:
https://www.vccircle.com/news/commodities/2015/03/04/westbridge-raises-stake-greenply-128-around-10m

 

all of these are mid caps, small caps,most of them are of decent quality, somebody already raised red flag of fortis, greenply is discussed so often in this forum, Kitex is next touted as next multibagger but I wonder how..I really cannot say whats so special about them..the plyboard business is dominated by informal players but some experts may know better, the kids clothing market is also very competitive... I can suggest NMDC,ICICI Bank, PSU banks, mid cap IT like NIIT , Mphasis, realty stocks look cheap, also look at railway stocks given the high capex govt is planning so Texmaco Rail...instead of Asian Granito, Kajaria looks better, atleast on fundamentals..IPCA Labs could be high risk high reward bet from here if you can wait ... if you can do SIP of 30,000 then choose a mutual fund...SIP in stocks is never a good option, unless you can monitor regularly...timing matters in stock markets....but if you want to go for SIP select six good stocks and can invest 5k regularly...HDFC Bank,ICICI, HUL, ACC-Ambuja, Dr Reddy, GSK pharma, Infy, TCS from blue chips..is what I can suggest...

 

thanks Mr. bholu for bringing out the gist of my portfolio and yeah your advice on stocks selection with regards to absence of bluechips, infrastructure related stocks and red flag on some already run stocks is very genuine.

 

1. Fortis health: - i genrally don't like hotel/hospital business - high capex business
2. Kitex garment: okay business + hungry mgmt - i feel it's overrated as business economics usually trump mgmt quality
3. HSIL: okay
4. MCX : first class business but you probably overpaid - you'll need to aptient for this one
5. DHFL: okay. I'm invested from 150/sh. I don't like mgmt theatrics.
6. Claris Life Sciences: I don't like Promoters.
7. Biocon: okay
8. JB chem: I made a quick 3 bagger here. Mgmt keeps hoarding so much cahs and depressed return ratios.
9. Axis bank: Good choice. It's underrated. They have improved on all metrics.
10. South indian bank: It will take time for growth to come back. I prefer Federal bank.
11. DCB bank: Only bank to improve NPA in absolute terms in tough times. Market is expecting too much and my hunch is that it will be disappointed.
12. Genus power: No view
13. IDFC: No view
14. JK tyre: No view
15. Suprajit engineering: No view
16. Escorts: Turnaround will take time. Not a big fan of promoters. What are doign in 50 HP plus tractors is pretty interesting.
17. Ashok leyland: Need to dig. Kenneth bhai bought it.
18. Tata global bev: Tatas have their own way of doing things. Need patience.
19. Godrej prop: I avoid RE.
20. JVL agro: Dump the stock find something better in decent industry.

 

Very good analysis.

 

just an observation about this point:
<<1. Fortis health: - i genrally don't like hotel/hospital business - high capex business>>

There is a difference in hotel and hospital business though both are capital intensive.
1)Hospital chains can develope competitive advantage because of Brand for e.g. Apollo in india, and because its capital intensiveness and have high gestation period its business model is difficult to replicate.
2)Second in hospital business you earn in recession also if you have brand equity.

 

and third point is Hospitals can have pricing power.

 

yes relatively hospitals are better than hotels. But in absolute terms I don't like either industry. Personal preference.