Heads up on coming crisis in late 2019

I am writing from a US centered perspective but with an interest in Indian markets. US Fed is going to raise rates around 4-5 times from now toward end of next year. This, along with the quantitative tightening by the Fed, will pull lots of capital out of emerging markets. Lots of money from the US had flooded into emerging markets in search of yield in the last ten years. There are estimates of it being at least around 9 trillion dollars. As the interest rates rise in the US this money is going back into US dollars. Indian local flows are not enough to hold the market up. I believe that Indian market will crash in the near future. US will have a recession beginning toward the second half of next year. US will crash as well. The Fed and the Wall Street behind it--with their global investments around the world--will deliver a US recession in the lead up to Trump reelection in 2020 as they want to make sure that Trump does not succeed in coming back next time.

I have gone largely into cash and debt. Will invest when the market is down 40-50% down.

 

present US financial position is good it is showing good progress ...

all global funds selling some stock positions in EMs
and convert to dollars and bring back to US is positive for US
trade deficit also reducing down is another positive

but indian market is now facing negative
due to From November onwards Iran issue
and mainly NBFCs LC is another biggest issue
MF s are hugely invested in NBFC is another negative
now in my view redemption presser faced by MF Industry
crude is also 81.5 dollars
dollar and rupee reached 72 rs.
and next year 2019 election is another issue

so in my view all negative points , so cash is king at this stage
and portfolio and risk management is vital for all

all the best

 

@RAMA MURTHY SASTRY CHALLA
Nice to be back to this site after a very long time.
We are in Wave 4 of Wave 5 from 2009 lows imho. Nifty target 9300-9800 for bottom of this correction. We should start preparing shopping list for the last leg of Bull run after this correction.
Regards,
Victor

 

@ Dear Victor ji ,

in my view market is showing weakness because 200 DMA 10755 BROKEN yesterday
in my own analysis market get good support between 9900 - 10300 levels in near future
below 9900 closing Bears are gain complete grip on Bulls

in my view , if market crash i think bottom may be at 8800 - 9000 levels

i think every high selling pressure is possible ,

so my suggestions are

1. Maintain some cash position always
2. Stick on with Quality stocks
3. concentrated portfolio is good at this time ( above 10 stocks and below 25 stocks is better)
4. in portfolio maintain some stocks in Defensive sectors like " Pharma & FMCG "
5. Dont Invest more than 6 - 7 % (approx) in any single stock
6.Dont Invest more than 15 % (Approx) in any Sector in your portfolio
7. Money Management , Risk Management & Portfolio Management is Vital
8.Dont Follow any Tips , Do your own Home work
9. Make your own Investment or Trade Plan with Back Test
10.Stick on to that Trade or Investment Plan dont change frequently
11. In market fall Loss is inevitable , but we have to beat market growth is vital
12. Dont change your Investment or Trading plan due to some failures
13. Make mastery on single Strategy is vital for success it is Technical or Fundamental analysis
(Elliatt Wave or Gann or candle sticks or Moving Averages,any thing you take Understanding and Application is vital for success )

ALL THE BEST SIR