e commerce companies

Discussion in 'Ask A Query About Your Stock Picks And Portfolio' started by shakti khanduri, Sep 12, 2015.

  1. shakti khanduri

    shakti khanduri Active Member

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    kindly give names of listed leading e commerce companies.Buying their shares is investing or speculation? And WHY?
     
  2. Meenakshi Razdan

    Meenakshi Razdan Administrator Staff Member Moderator

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    Well, some names that come readily to mind are Info Edge (India) Ltd, Vaibhav Global, Izmo (Logix Micro), Intrasoft etc. Buying their shares could be investing or speculating, depending on the valuations that you pay for them. Each one of them has a business model and a revenue model and it is a question of correctly evaluating what the stock is worth.
     
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  3. shakti khanduri

    shakti khanduri Active Member

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    How many of them are in profit? How many of are fairly valued, in your opinion? Is their business model long term sustanable? Is there any MOAT to resist future competion? kindly enlighten me.
     
  4. shakti khanduri

    shakti khanduri Active Member

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    Keeping risk reward and margin of safety ,how many of them are fairely valued for investment?
     
  5. Meenakshi Razdan

    Meenakshi Razdan Administrator Staff Member Moderator

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    Well, the popular ones, if you go by what some well-known investors are buying, are Palred Technologies, Izmo, Vaibhav Global, Intrasoft and Info-Edge.

    I don't think these businesses are being valued on the basis of their present profitability but on the basis of their "scalability" and what the profit could be when the company achieves its full potential. The business model requires huge cash discounts to be given to the customer to wean him away from traditional shopping methods. So, there is a lot of "cash burn" and "losses" expected to be incurred in the business model.

    In fact, even Amazon, which is one of the first and oldest listed company in the USA is not entirely profitable even as of date though several years have passed since its inception.

    The other thing that the investors in ecom companies are banking upon is the impending IPO of Infobeam. That may create some hype in the sector and send the valuations upwards.

    The question of a "fair valuation" at present does not arise because as I said earlier most of these companies are not profitable/ have low profit. The valuations are based on the "future scalability and profitability" There is a lot of crystal-gazing involved in determining the valuations.

    Whether the business is "long-term sustainable" and whether there is a "moat" is difficult to say. The business model is per se a simple one in the sense that you are creating a "market-place" for local vendors to sell their products. So, anyone with the ability to raise huge funds can be a potential competitor. In fact, the intense competition amongst the existing e-com players, Amazon, Flipkart, Snapdeal, Infibeam, Shopclues etc apart from local ones like Localbanya, Bigbasket, Pepperfry, Grofers, meragrocer, freshfalsabzi etc is an indication that there is no moat. The customer is ultimately concerned with the largest discount that he can get and this creates cut-throat competition amongst the vendors.
     
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  6. Meenakshi Razdan

    Meenakshi Razdan Administrator Staff Member Moderator

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    Local Banya itself has a large number of competitors. This gives you an ideal of what the "moat" is in these businesses.
    In the regular products category, there are competitors like HomeShop18, eBay, Indiatimes Shopping, etc.
     
  7. shakti khanduri

    shakti khanduri Active Member

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    Thanks,quite elaborate answer. l understand buying shares of these companies is more of SPECULATION in future.
     
  8. kharb

    kharb Well-Known Member

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    E commerce is Presently vehicle to burn cash of Angel investers.So enjoy e shopping at great discount to cost , forget off line high cost.Similarly these shares are betting ground for investers taking undue risk for losing,who's last gamble had paid off somewhere.Ultimately these e commerce compnies will create model,which will be used by original manufacturer to eleminte the non value addition of intermediater. You may have off line to create brands , feel and after sales service mostly of compnies owned ,e commerce directly to customers by manufacturer.I think customers,logistic players,IT compnies will be ultimate winner.E commerce Model will survive but e commerce compnies which are in products selling of others may not survive.But service providing E commerce compnies may survive.
     
    Last edited: Sep 13, 2015
  9. dineshkapoor27

    dineshkapoor27 Active Member

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    I think if you want to ride the ecommerce wave, then instead of betting on the ecommerce companies themselves, you can play proxy by investing in CV Auto co.s, logistics, packaging etc. That way you will not be bound by one ecommerce company in particular. Generally, the valuations of the listed ecommerce companies are quite inflated and therefore it might be a better bet to invest in the proxy plays IMO.
     
  10. Sanjay Kumar

    Sanjay Kumar New Member

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    I think a proxy play is better in this case.
    Because ecom companies per say dont have any profits to talk about.
    But the logistics players make money.

    My pick will be patel integrated logistics, which has a tie up with Amazon.

    It also have 70 % market share in Air cargo industry.
     
  11. New_Investor

    New_Investor Active Member

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    What about justdial?
     
  12. dineshkapoor27

    dineshkapoor27 Active Member

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    @New_Investor Justdial is a great choice right now. Their search plus app is going to be a game changer I believe. But you would need to wait for the monetization to kick in in fy17. Till then keep accumulating. I am also invested in JD.
     
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