Stock Ideas From Rakesh Jhunjhunwala, Kenneth Andrade & Few More Investors...

thanks for sharing

 

From: https://alphaideas.in/2016/06/03/notes-sohn-india-conference/
Sunil Singhania started his presentation in a very unusual fashion by showing two Bollywood scenes. One scene was 20 years back where the Villain was drinking whiskey.The second scene was where superstar Deepika Padukone is drinking. He explained that earlier Villains used to drink and now heros/heroines drink.Drinking has become socially acceptable. He mentioned a startling fact - "One third of all people born after year 2000 are Indians". The young demography of India,the low per capita consumption,the social acceptability makes India Alcohol story a compelling one. He said globally liquor companies were large value creators for shareholders and India shouldn’t be any different.

From: https://www.alphainvesco.com/docs/sohn_india_-_stock_ideas.pdf
Alcohol is gaining social acceptance : Compared to 90’s & 00’s, acceptance for drinking in social environment has gone up with every year. Will go up further. It is normal to see 2 generations sharing a drink over a family gathering now days.

Opportunity Size : Multi-decade theme. More than 55% of our population has not even entered drinking age yet.

India’s alcoholic beverage market : 38 billion US $ ( 75% unorganized sector, 25% organized sector ). As discretionary spend goes up, Indians will spend more on premium liquor & share of organized will only go up from present. Compared to India, China’s alcohol market is 250 billion US $ as on date.

Margins to move up : Globally, beverages companies make around 40% plus operating margins. In India margins are at 10-12% due to various factors including higher
transportation costs, multiple taxes, different tax policies across geographies as alcohol is a state subject, low paying capacity etc. See margins moving up towards 40% range in the coming decade or so. Most of the analysts come up with 1 or 2% margin variations! Need to look at the big picture. Margins are set to go up as prices increase, costs are rationalized & operating leverage kicks in with additional demand.

Prohibition concerns : In one of the most regulated market i.e. Saudi Arabia, consumption has gone up despite all efforts. Do not see it as a serious threat barring minor hiccups here & there.

As we know, GST will give negative impact to alcoholic beverage sector. United Spirit is languishing at 52 week low, is it time to buy it?

Your views please @RAMA MURTHY SASTRY CHALLA @Srouta Mukherjee @w4wealth @kharb @BombayBoy

 

I fully agree about the positive facts mentioned in favour of alcohol stocks but Govt has the capability to neutralize all these with single strock to attract female votes..I had united spirits till recently ,although very small Quantity but sold it after new found trend of demanding ban on it in every state Election.

 

100% agreed with @kharb Sir when there are so many good stocks sectors why go for dangerous stocks and sectors like alcohol industry. If same money is put in FMCG, Pharma, NBFC stocks so much more return is there with no tension.

 

How is Britannia in FMCG?

 

LDF will come out with a clear liquor policy: Kerala Excise Minister