Confusing the stock price with the story is biggest mistake an investor can make ~ Peter Lynch

@Fun_Da_Mentalist -Holds good for long term.There is also a well accepted opinion -Market knows every thing and thus reflced in charts. This, in my opinion, is valid for short term. What are forum's opininon including Mr Fun_Da_Mentalist"s ( not participating for quite some time)? Kindly speak from experiences.

 

thanks for sharing

 

My understanding of charts and technicals is pretty much non existent.

Reliance Industries is a good example of divergence between company performance and stock performance.

They are getting much better at what they do, their new revenue streams are firing up and yet, the share price is caught up in a time warp. ( I wrote about this when then share was around 830; now it is around 1030)

The opportunity to make money lies in the gap between company performance and share price performance. So knowing the company's story well is really the most critical thing for generating wealth in the long term.

 

RIL may perform next year to cover past under performance. Market needs few stocks ideas every year. Now unluckily ,all old ideas FMCG is over priced,Pharma is followed by FDA,banks with NPA,metals are saddled with Recession ,Infra under debt,telecom under competion, crude under price..So now what is left to keep matket moving ,it is old advertisement like only Vimal ,looks of a winner,ie RIL.So operators and fund manager has no choice but to play RIL..They will find all type of justification for this ,as they have been doing for other stocks during their performance time.I am a long term share holder in RIL.

 

Kindly quote some examples from your OWN past experiences to make things more understandable , specifying how long u had to wait for market's appriciation to prove you right.@MR MURTHY is also reqested to share views with examples from past experiences.

 

@Mr Fun_Da_Mentalist@ Mr Kharb --- As per my view, market price of any stock is market's perception of future earnings. RIL is very widely followed and analysed . How could market be wrong in this case ? Why is market unable see what you and me can, easily ? Please be kind enough to make me understand.

 

TINA.There Is No Alternative.Who says market is wrong.Slowly RIL is Moving up is just 5% lower than 52 week high and is among very few large cap Stocks up YOY and is up by 25% from 52 week low .More over at year end is among few large cap who has strength.I have been positive on RIL for last one quarter and has been posting the same under different threads.

 

Hype around RIL in 2016 - intuitive or backed with some tangible knowledge?

 

TINA to RIL ? Really?

 

To me it looks to be TINA.If not,please suggest alternate ideas in large cap space in Nifty or Sensex on which market can move forward in 2016.Happy to find anticipated questioning of my exploring post,but your questioning remain incomplete without giving alternative answer to TINA. We are just discussing Sensex or NIFTY or mega cap stocks movement in which 2/3 of Indian money is invested .In my view 2016 belongs to RIL due to TINA till Indian economy recover and afterwards may be in 2017 may belong to recovery in Indian infra and capital goods sector benefiting L&T,ICICI,AXIS bank and SBI and 2018 may be year of ONGC and Cairn and who knows may be metals also have slim possibility . In between IT,HDFC bank,Kotak ,HUL,Asian paintsAuto sector,Pharma may continue to give market returns.Personally I dont bet PSUs. These are just my exploring views and cross views are most welcome.

 

Shakti,

Excellent question. I don't have a real answer. I don't know. But if I have one I will post.

 

My questioning was complete for i just wanted a confirmatory 'yes' or 'no'. And since it appears to be a strong yes, in your view by how much will RIL outperform market returns

Our large cap wallet for 2016 stands exhausted vide investment already done into Tata Motors during oct/nov 15.

 

As you know mega cap don't give huge move,in my view it should move up by around 20% and it is just yes only ,not strong yes as you mentioned, as I am neither expert nor insider but a conservative invester.....As usual I don't recommend any stock to any body and these posts are just for discussion .I have every right to be wrong due to large no of variables in stock market , as always.

 

The answer may lie in that immortal line : "in the short run the market is a voting machine; but in the long run it is a weighing machine"

 

Too dificult to understand & to implement . How short is short term, and how long is long term ? Buffett can wait indefinitely to be proved right because his conviction is based on inputs from enormous sources,a retail investor does not have that advantage. I for one like market's approval right in the stort term to hold for long term

 

Very true. We need to evolve our own rules of thumb. Which is why this is as much art as it is science.

 

this is the weak theory of efficient market hypothesis.market is semiefficient not 100% efficient.all market participents are logical and mechanical is not correct. emotion,greed fear interferes a lot in sound decision making process.
in semi-efficient market there is a time lag between the available information and price movement.if possible this lag may be exploited.
whether a company is good or bad is not important,but more important is crowds perception about the company.

 

One of the best quotes I have come across.

Thanks SM