Lets get rich- prove ourselves

Friends I am tired of seeing us analyze stocks and these loose focus. The current bloodbath has left me wondering where we went wrong...when I began earnestly investing I made some real great choices JK Tyres LG Balakrishnan Brothers HPCL etc. etc. The Namo rally brought hope...but now all that has fizzled out stocks are below pre-rally levels....I have decided I will now work with great focus and suggest stock picks for the forum...I believe retail investors were taken for ride by the talk of multi-year bull run when the govt. came to power...it was all by vested interests to get our hard earned money in the markets and then pull prices down (see video below)....but now marks the return of common investor...lets all get together to use the bottom to suggest great stock picks...just focus on the individual stock...no comparison...how good is it...what returns can it give...no debates without mentioning fundamentals or expected returns...lets do it...

 

Means to just top picks? No debate and no discussion. Sounds interesting

 

Excellent suggestion

I think Bholu is saying that there should be no debates without fundamentals discussion. i.e. fundamentals must be discussed first.

 

Yes Mr. Mukherjee, today is birthday of Netaji Subash Chandra Bose..he said "jodi tor daak sune keu na ashe tobe ekla chole re" (if nobody listens to your call then walk alone). With my humble respect to the great man I have decided to follow his words. I am walking alone. I will help my fellow boarders select high quality stocks which will give market beating returns. Thank you to Parin and Sourata but I have to walk alone. Debate, discussion is futile what investors need is information, and the facts. Ultimately is their money and nobody will cover their losses. I will do this. I just want investors to know about the quality stocks to buy and then act according to their risk appetite and investment strategy. Jai Hind.

 

mcx 30%, bajaj electricals 20%, tci 30%, munjal showa 20% % is asset allocation
buy and hold for 10 years - 2026 you can sell it and you will be happy you bought it in 2016. if you invest in for a 10 lakhs portfolio you will be minimum 50 lakhs in 2026.
buy price mcx-830, bajaj elec - 182,tci - 235, munjal showa -177
all the best @bholu

 

Thank you way2wealth really appreciated...I will review the stocks you suggested..I request all boarders to consider your stocks...I am doing constant research ...my computer is running non-stop...I want every boarder to read this post and make valuable suggestions...in this way retail investors will become a force in this market...and not loose any money ....way to go...let us do this....yes we can

 

I am also buying blue chip midcap stocks in SIP mode

 

Dear bholu,
please find my suggestion below .

Pharma space : Lot of good suggestion been give on this board (Talk to sroutaji also ).


IT : For large cap, HCL/Infy are better placed . We are having lot of discussions on IT related small caps on this forum . Peoples are betting on ricoh,Rolta, subex etc.

Plastic : My choice if Prima plastics.

NBFC : My bet is Indiabulls hosuing finance(Considerable dividend being paid) . DHFL is cheap as compared to any other NBFC as of now but not moving much for last few years .

Pantaloon fashion : Indian consumption story with genuine management.

Deccan gold : It may need buddha's patience, but its well placed, I dont mind holding for 10 years .

Vidhi dyestuff : I am already holding and will continue for next few years.
V2 retail : I bet on promoter .

I am fan of small/micro caps so you may not find much suggetion from me.

I am holding few more stocks, but either they ran up very much or are bit risky , so will not suggest them.
Hope it helps .

Thanks & Regards,
Prashant

 

prashant which microcap/smallcaps you are interested/invested?

 

Dear w4wealth,
Apart from above mentioned stocks I have cybertech,sankhya infotech,rajoo enginers too .
Cupid had a dream run and am going to hold it for few more years .

Thanks & Regards,
Prashant

 

Thank you Prashant...I hope you have done your research before recommending these stocks. At the end of the day this post is for the benefit of retail investors like you and me so we should be judicious in our recommendations. Congratulations on doing well with the small caps..if you feel they are solid companies please do not refrain from sharing them.

Friends my first pick is Exide Industries- Exide is one of largest manufacturers of industrial and automotive batteries in India. The stock has corrected a fair bit but the results have been encouraging and now the stock is available at less than 15 times forward earnings. With a turnover of almost 10,000 crores and equivalent market cap Exide is definitely looking attractively priced. The reason for stocks under performance has been loss of market share to competitors and non-performance of its life insurance business. However the continuous fall in raw materials (crude,lead) will benefit the company to maintain strong profits. It has a very strong balance sheet and good product recall with a strong distribution network. It makes a product which will always have a high demand given the number of vehicles in the country.The insurance company is now a 100% subsidiary of the company and this has led the company to give a strong push its business. The results are however yet to be seen.
All in all, I can say @125 this stock is bargain. If the commodity prices remain where they are and the insurance business shows decent growth leading to some value unlocking in the future the stock can give a good return even within a year.

 

i will say one thing. stocks mentioned here are not recommendations. study yourself and take your decision to invest or not.

 

Yes w4wealthji,
everyone need to study and take position only after they are convinced. Some stocks may not fit the risk appetite of individuals. Individuals may have different views on stock stories and their future too .
So all of us need to take picks which they are comfortable and convinced .

Thanks & Regards,
Prshant

 

dear prashant, can you please give me logic of ctbertech, sankhya, and rajoo? i am very interested to know.

 

Dear w4wealthji,
original ideas are from blog aceinvestortrader.wordpress , so let the credit go to the respected author .

Thanks & Regards,
Prashant

 

Instead of Exide I would suggest Amara Raja Batteries.

You have said that 'The reason for stocks under performance has been loss of market share to competitors and non-performance of its life insurance business.' Why are you buying a company which is losing market share? Also why is a company making batteries which is losing market share interested in life insurance? Instead it should focus more on its core business and try to regain its market share.

 

if you like the insurance business more than battery busineess then one should buy exide and if one is looking to invest in battery business only then one should buy amara raja. its simple.

 

Thank you for your comments. I hope investors are noting them down.

here is wishing everybody a very Happy Republic Day. Long live democracy in the country and the plurality of thoughts in the country. May everybody get a chance to represent their fair and honest and judicious opinion without any fear of harm, repression or persecution.

My next pick is a surprise ICICI Bank. I have been critical of the bank management and I stand by my views. However this is not a time to focus on negatives. Instead on the positives. ICICI Bank now trades at attractive valuations. At around 1.5 times price to book on forward earnings it trades much cheaper than other large private sector banks like HDFC and Axis. It has the largest deposit base , branch network, and loan book size among private banks with 4000 billion rupees in advances. It has solid investments in subsidiaries, particularly in life and general insurance, and asset management.

The biggest drawback of the bank is its NPAs. It has gross NPAs of almost 3.5% and its provision coverage is among the lowest in the large private banks. Also it has a high percentage of restructured loans. The RBI has decided to tighten norms for restructured loans/ NPAs meaning the bank faces prospects of high increase in NPAs which will lead to increased provisions and lower profitability.

Qualitatively, I think every investor can see the difference in functioning of various banks. Let me tell you the market values the functioning of banks at branch level very seriously because at the end of day all the retail business of the bank is generated there. If the retail performance of any bank is not good in a highly populated country like India the market is going take note of that. I reserve my comments here.

I can conclude the cheaper valuations, investments in subsidiaries, large branch network and deposit base and strong loan growth make ICICI Bank a good calculated bet. The market will keenly watch the results especially asset quality over the next two quarters.

 

ok @prashant . what did you liked in these companies?

 

My experience of ICICI at branch level as a customer has not been good. My worst experience were with HDFC. My best experience was with IOB. But that does not mean investing in IOB is a good idea. Also different people might have different experiences. So I don't think that 'personal experience at branch level' must be considered while investing.

Good analysis. That is the reason why ICICI must be avoided for at least 2-3 quarters. After that one can consider entry provided that the worst is over and ICICI has made some changes to make sure that they do not lend to companies like Lanco Infratech, Jaiprakash Assocaites, Electrosteel etc... Or if they do lend they must be able to identify at early stage that there is some problem in these companies. Many good suggestion made by RBI to banks in this regard: - https://rbi.org.in/scripts/BS_PressReleaseDisplay.aspx?prid=30519