Blockbuster quarterly result

Discussion in 'Ask A Query About Your Stock Picks And Portfolio' started by Rahul Arora, Oct 21, 2015.

  1. Rahul Arora

    Rahul Arora Member

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    Hi
    In every quarter, some companies comes wid blockbuster results from where they start to attract huge attention of traders as well as investors...sales or profit or both increased by multiple times..they r get rerated...investors took long position while trader keep close watch on these co. n take trading positions b4 nxt qtr result to b benifitted quickly...like in Q1, some I can remember rt now are Chennai Petro, Hatuson agro, IG petro, thirumalai chem, gen tech , gm brew. etc...
    it would b beneficial to all of us, investors/traders, if u highlight all such cos posting multi fold sales/profit change in any quarter...
    M startibg with Hatuson agro...yesterday posted hugeeee result..
     
  2. Sachin pathak

    Sachin pathak Active Member

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    I believe gm breweries has posted excellent q2

    DIC india is another name. There is a thread on this i started before results

    Others uptil now

    Gati,
    8k miles
    Heritage foods
    Kajaria
    Himmatsingka

    Watch out for pokarna next week...
     
  3. Rahul Arora

    Rahul Arora Member

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    Brother. ..by blockbuster , I meant sales/profit up by multifold...from where they will b rerated...plz keep it in mind....
    I hv not seen yet Gati's result in Q2...was it blockbuster?
     
  4. Srouta Mukherjee

    Srouta Mukherjee Well-Known Member

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    No Gati's results were bad. Stock lost 6%. Even Kajaria results were okayish. revenue growth was low as per Nirmal Bang.

    I think idea of tracking blockbusters is good one. Sometimes we may get big winner this way.
     
  5. Sachin pathak

    Sachin pathak Active Member

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    Gati consoidated is bad. Standalone good.

    Kajaria : topline +13% and PAT ~ 50%. these are strong numbers
     
  6. Rahul Arora

    Rahul Arora Member

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    Yes bro...thats y requesting you to keep in mind abt really blockbuster result I.e. sales/profit/both increased by multifold...we will definitely get many winner of future from this...
    ..like gm brew emerged in Q1 n now again in Q2...after Q1 blockbuster result,GM brew has gone up by more dan 3X in last 3 months.......we will surely get many more like GM Brew. if u can track these blockbuster cos...
    Personally feels IG petro, thirumalai chem, Zen tech, Chennai petro also coming to this qtr wid blockbuster results. ..plz keep a watch on these...waiting for your inputs ...
     
  7. Srouta Mukherjee

    Srouta Mukherjee Well-Known Member

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    Nirmal Bang has put Kajaria under review on basis of weak revenue growth:

    Weak Revenue Growth, But Strong Margins

    Kajaria Ceramics or KCL’s 2QFY16 revenue grew by a modest 13% to Rs6,104mn with volume
    growth of 11.9% against 14.0%/12.8% in FY14/FY15, respectively, in line with our/Bloomberg
    estimates. Following a higher share of in-house manufacturing of tiles as against traded tiles
    and a better product mix, gross margin improved 680bps to 66.4%. Following lower crude oil
    prices, gas prices declined and led to a 93bps fall in power and fuel costs, thereby resulting in
    a 438bps improvement in EBITDA margin to 19.5%, 365bps/380bps above our/Bloomberg
    estimates, respectively. We expect KCL to pass on a part of the benefits to consumers to
    support demand and therefore the current margins may not sustain. Growth in blended
    realisation moderated to 1.3% in 2QFY16 against 5.4%/2.5% in FY15/1QFY16, respectively, and
    in the wake of weak demand we expect KCL to go for a slight price cut to improve volume.
    Following better margins, EBITDA grew by a strong 45.6% to Rs1,193mn, 23.4%/25% above
    our/Bloomberg estimates, respectively. Adjusted PAT grew 47.8% to Rs587mn, 29.1%/19.4%
    above our/Bloomberg estimates, respectively. Capacity utilisation decreased from 100%/94.9%
    YoY/QoQ, respectively, to 93.1%, while the net working capital cycle increased to 57 days from
    32 days YoY. KCL is expanding its capacity by 26.8% in FY16, but in the wake of weak demand
    the utilisation rate may come under pressure. We have increased our EBITDA margin
    estimates for FY16/FY17 by 166bps/103bps to 17.4%/17.3%, & PAT estimates by 14.6%/8.4%
    respectively, to capture the benefit of a higher share of in-house manufactured tiles, better
    product mix and lower power and fuel costs .Currently, KCL stock trades at 26.7x/13.9x FY17E
    P/E and EV/EBITDA, respectively.

    Weak demand to impact revenue and capacity utilisation: With weak demand, net revenue grew
    13% to Rs6,104mn, in line with our/Bloomberg estimates. Sales volume improved 11.9% to
    16.13msqm, compared to 6.4%/14.0%/12.8% in 1QFY16/FY14/FY15, respectively. Utilisation of
    expanded 4.5msqm capacity at Jaxx Vitrified, which commenced operations in September 2014,
    improved to 77% in 2QFY16 from 57% in 1QFY16. To utilise higher inventory, KCL reduced blended capacity utilisation to ~95.0%/93.1% in 1QFY16/2QFY16, respectively, versus ~100% in 2QFY15.

    Higher production, up 22.9% to 14.46msqm in 2QFY16, mainly led by a 60.1% improvement in
    production at joint ventures or JVs and a comparatively lower sales volume growth of 11.9%, resulted in the inventory rising 39.6% to Rs3,584mn on YoY basis, indicating weak demand. KCL is expanding capacity by 26.8% in FY16, the utilisation of which will be under pressure because of weak demand.

    Current margins may not sustain: Following a higher share of in-house output, earlier price hikes
    and a decline in power and gas costs (93bps fall), operating margin improved by a strong 438bps to 19.5%, 365bps/380bps above our/Bloomberg estimates, respectively. Growth in blended realisation moderated to 1.3% in 2QFY16 from 2.5% in 1QFY16. In order to further improve sales volume, we expect KCL to go for a moderate price cut and pass on some of the raw material cost benefit to consumers. Thus, with weak demand and additional capacity, we do not expect the margins to sustain their 1HFY16 level.
     
  8. Srouta Mukherjee

    Srouta Mukherjee Well-Known Member

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  9. Sachin pathak

    Sachin pathak Active Member

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    Havent ever followed kajaria. So basically coming quarters are trying for the company is it?
     
  10. Sachin pathak

    Sachin pathak Active Member

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    Noted. But then why not look at positive turnarounds as well?
     
  11. Rahul Arora

    Rahul Arora Member

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    Sachin....That is a also a gd idea...for that, one new thread may b started ...because all people may not b dat interested to b in d turn around storey as d risk involved there is a bit more dan these cos ...so better two separate sections b dedicated for these....
     
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  12. jeett

    jeett Member

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    Look at Pioneer Embroidery, NCL Industries and Srikalhasthi Pipes as well.
     
  13. jeett

    jeett Member

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    Tanla Solution as well
     
  14. dineshkapoor27

    dineshkapoor27 Active Member

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    Adani Transmission
     
  15. Srouta Mukherjee

    Srouta Mukherjee Well-Known Member

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    IPCA Labs due to FDA disapproval. When approval comes stock will turnaround and give healthy profits as before.
     
  16. Sachin pathak

    Sachin pathak Active Member

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    Tell me more about this one pls...
     
  17. Sachin pathak

    Sachin pathak Active Member

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    Alembic pharma?
     
  18. shakti khanduri

    shakti khanduri Active Member

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    Positive. Holding for longterm.
     
  19. RAMA MURTHY SASTRY CHALLA

    RAMA MURTHY SASTRY CHALLA Well-Known Member

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    ALEMBIC PHARMA Q2 cons PAT Rs. 289 Cr. Vs Rs. 77Cr. YOY , vs Rs. 70 Cr. qoq
     
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  20. Rahul Arora

    Rahul Arora Member

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    We are looking for YOY rise in sales or profit or both by at least 100%....so dat screening will b much strict n we will b close to find d rerating candidate more easily
     
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