How far are we from the bull market?

It appears from sources that now almost every expert accepts that we are in the secular bear market with no visible end . In fact most ot the experts are advising keeping away from the market and protecting the capital.There is no hopeful voice.However I venture to take contrarian view in this regard.. It Is mainly based on two counts. One, market has the proven old habit of surprising everybody. Two, when bear phase is university recognised with fear of no early recovery and staying away from the market for capital protction is advocated- it is the tell tail sign that bottom is very near-this ,i have read in various books , has been guidance of many legends of the markets. Thus my view is that we have been in the secular bear market for quite some time interspersed with mild bear market rallies - which we were mistaking for bull market rallies- with out being aware and we are quite close te end of bear market.. What would be trigger for change ,I am not sure? Members opinions on this topic is requested for.THE REAL BULL MARKET IS ABOUT TO BEGIN .

 

dear friend i think that the next budget will be focussed on infra spending. so bull market will be initiated by infra co.s. it may start around the time of budget. other areas of budget focus may be solar energy and housing. so the co.s in these sectors will start the bull run . i think so.

 

Dear Shakti,
if every so called expert asking to stay away, its time to take dive . Believe me .
No need to take these so called experts seriously, no one predicted bear market just 6 months back .

If these experts were so experts they should have yelled Sell and Run , few weeks ago .
I firmly believe we are at the start of the bull run . Lower crude and all efforts by government will start to show the results very soon . We will see very soon these same experts predicting sensex 30-35k very soon .
Regards,
Prashant

 

I do remember Shankar sharma had forseen this fall much earlier. Many times he was right in the past.

 

Some people say this. Some people say other thing. So total confusion is there of what to do.

 

If these so called experts are not to be believed, then why believe their stock recommendations and tout them as multibagger ? Dont many in here not do this endlessly? Should we collectively agree not to highlight/recommend stocks where reliance is placed on research reports and/or recommendation of these so called experts / stock gurus

 

Good proposal ! If at all any such reports is presented, it should be along with another view giving contrary opinion. Thus investor can make independent balanced opinion with conviction.

 

Budget round the corner, expectations flying high about the positivity contained therein, voices indicating it will trigger the bull market again with all the infra spendings etc.

But I would rather place my belief in our Governor. Thus I sincerely hope that

- our Excellent Governor's advice is heeded by our pragmatic FM in that it shouldnt be simply assumed that time is still in favour of the government to continue their last year’s exercise of stepping up public investment in infrastructure, even if it means we have to defer by a little the sticking to the fiscal consolidation path. Here in we have committed to the world and investors to assure them that the Country would not stray into populist or spend-the-way to growth approach.

- the feel good factors like the 7+ % growth, low oil prices, low inflation and a low current account deficit doesnt lure the FM to plunge headlong into any borrowing to fund public investment in infrastructure programme or higher borrowing strategy discarding the future consequences of this.

This message has been in his usual style of speaking out his mind with gusto conveyed loud and clear to the government particularly to the Finance Minister. Thankfully our FM has responded that he is weighing the pros and cons of higher public spending and its impact on the fiscal ganit.

Looks like greater long term benefits if we go the Guv's way...... Else who knows chances of Sensex kissing 100,000 may get pushed back

 

Saurabh Mukherjea of Ambit Cpital predicted that the sensex would touch 22000 ... We are very close to that

Our G8 RJ told in one of the interviews that if Nifty breaks the support level of 7400 then there will be a carnage ... We are experiencing it

 

@kharb @RAMA MURTHY SASTRY CHALLA my thinking is that Bull market is about to start when psu banks gets a new life. Banking system is a mess and need to to be cleaned for efficiently supporting the growth in agriculture, business, and heavy infra. since 51 % of our population depends on agri, growth largely depends on agri sector. small farmers should be empowered with low interest loans and full assitance by agri department. if agri sectors grows even only 2% pa it will make huge impact on economy and overall savings of country.

 

@w4wealth ,
Banking reforms is very much needed but Banking Laws should be changed in parliament
hard punishments to will full defaulters is needed

 

Strong Political will is required for that. Some of these will full defaulters have political connections.

 

In India laws are enforced only on people without muscle power & money power ...

 

my strong belief is that agri sector shud b included in make in india program. india can be the food supplier to the world if india limits its populaton growth and increase productivity of the agri land.
India is very behind of other countries in terms of techniques in farming. farms shud be mechanised to reduce labour dependency and profitability. govt shud look into that seriously.

 

@ w4wealth ,

https://www.israelrising.com/israel-steps-up-indian-agriculture-with-outstanding-results/

 

I second you ... But the most important thing which has been long pending is the "national interlinking of rivers" ... If they do that, we can see leaps & bounds of progress in agriculture ...

 

interlnking of rivers are very large scale projects which requires meticulous planning and huge funds. in current situation of india, is it that possilble?

 

yes , this is possible ...in Andhra Pradesh central government announced " polavaram " project on godavari river
and simultaneously Andhra Pradesh state government start " pattiseema " canal project to this and link to godavari river to krishna river , in godavari almost 98 % of the water waste and enter into bay of bengal , krishna river there is no water at all ...so if godavari polavaram project dam completes through that pattiseema canal water supply to rayalaseema area in andhra pradesh which is second highest drought area after rajasthan state
will get plenty of water and will get excellent agro production to our nation , last year center is given 100 cr. very less amount to that project ... now this budget we will expect very high ... because all water projects separeted in telangana state formation ...at that time congress brutally separate our state and Andhra pradesh lost hyderabad city revenue, all industrial area and all water projects , at that time they include special statutes to our andhra pradesh , and polavaram project , special railway zone include in separation bill ....
but those are only in paper .... if rivers are connect with small canals and lift irrigation country will develop rapidly

 

yes sir, if state govt and central govt shares the project cost it can be possible.the project you mentioned is already started. right?
if one such project get done, then every state will try to do such projects.
i strongly believe that farmers are the strength of india. i am also a small proud farmer. small farmers must be empowered with better seeds , better techniques and irrigation facilities. crop insurance , better farm produce procurement system, better prices for produce must be ensured by the govt.
sad thing is that small farmers are not effectively suppurted by the govt. heard that last month or so 1800 farmers suicided in a district in maharashtra.
i feel govt shud throw out all intermediary forces in the agri market. they exploit the small farmers and put them in horrible situations.

 

Yes , my view is in India there is no tax on agriculture income since 1947
but 50 and 60 acres land lords also enjoying tax holidays it is not correct ...

government should impose tax above 10-15 acres land and decide according to annual yield basis,
and also government impose tax on " Aqua , and Tobacco " and it should be deleted from agriculture list

aqua they are earning lakhs of rupees but they dont pay any tax , and discourage Tobacco farming and impose tax and give all benefits to small and medium farmers
and impose compulsory crop insurgence policy half government and half farmer policy is best