Which sector is likely to lead in current bull market

If you are likely to make huge wealth then please vote

 

Bull market ? ;D..its a bear market now...but ultimately its the stock quality that matters..not the sector

 

Frankly I do not know the answer but I would buy IT stocks now...all frontline IT stocks beaten down are trading at reasonable levels...these are highly profitable companies, good corporate governance, strong balance sheet, visible earnings...all the criteria of a good investment

 

I guess all the easy money has been made in the last one year. Now its a task to search for value and growth stocks.. Even within sectors there is a vast difference in valuations.. eg Gruh Finance vs Diwan Housing Finance.

So from here on it will be stock specific action rather than sector specific. Try to buy stocks with good visibility and reasonable valuations.

 

After correcting less than 10% how come you can tell it as bear market. Look at the base of this ongoing moment, started at much lower level, it's the only correction it's facing. If you can't have a stomach to digest 10% loss after getting 50% profit then don't come to share market.

 

You are talking about IT that's great. But remember that this is the only one sector whose business changes much frequently than others. Model of IT business is changing try to catch the best value.

 

Infra is at idle mode till now. Though all the sectors are in the radar of the investor but those are likely to remain the core theme of this bull run. May be next 1 year it's going to be stock specific. After that it's the rally from sector. If you are a long term investor then do remember about the quality.

 

Business does not change. None of the IT companies is really in the products business. They are all in people business. Time and material model, where material means people. That is moved now to Fixed price contracts, but nature of business remains the same - assign "N" people to project, multiply Y $ per head and that gives your revenue. 15 years ago, all the IT companies were furiously working on Y2K projects, now its Infrastructure management, or application development and maintenance. Irrespective of their focus - BFSI, or Auto or manufacturing, at the end, there is only one business these IT companies are in - People.

 

The markets rose by 30-40% , so a 10% correction means 25%-30% gains gone...I do not care much about losses, at least till now, but if Infosys can correct by 10% after declaring a bonus...then it is definitely a bear market

 

I believe that the most of the sectors are flavor of this bull market comparing to the previous ones where one particular sector led. But the catch is the one who holds the right stock will be the ultimate winner in this bull market irrespective of the sector. Hence one needs to be stock specific rather than sector. Even alternate energy sector can also do well. Banks and financing companies will be a part of this big move.

 

I guess the safest sector to bet on is Financials. Banking, NBFCs and Housing Fin Companies. You cant go wrong there. It is always a safe spot.

Other sector would be Infra and cap goods. L&T, AIA engg, Cummins, BHEL, EIL, Voltas, SKF etc are some companies which will surely do well. But that will take a bit of time.

 

The traditional indian IT business is all about skillful people, but this is not at all. Because they work in the back office job or api. But world is changing very fast but this companies are not changing their business models. And in terms of contract maintenance it's the only butter in their bread. Bcz consultancy revenue is not a big contributor in their business. Though I am hopeful that they will position themselves in the sweet spot.

 

If you can't stay with the volatility then it's not the right place for you. And when market rose 40% then profit gone in my portfolio is around 500%. If it corrects by 10% then my profit will be erode by 20%.After getting 500% if 20% gone so how does it matter? And most of the stocks rallied between 50%-400%.

 

Well if you have made handsome profits well done..I am also ready for volatility...but I do not think markets can go high from here easily...the trend has turned negative...results are very ordinary...it is a sort of reality check for the market ...if the rally resumes I would also be glad...

 

I agree with Bholu ji.. The current fall of 10% in the nifty is a reality check. We are crying that markets have fallen from 9000 but they should'nt have gone to 9000 in the first place. There was a lot of hype in the Modi story. Now people are coming back to ground.

My sense is that though markets might not move up a lot in the near term, they will also not fall much now. Because the excess premium have been wiped off. Even if for the next 2 quarters if we see average results I dont think the markets will fall 10-10% like this time.

On the other hand, there can be a positive surprise from GST front which can cheer up the market. I guess we will have a long consolidation of 6 months now

 

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Pharma sector has lead this bull market till now and will continue to do so. Huge upside left in pharma sector.

 

Market may not move upwards till next month or to be frank this quarter. Because the valuation is at high level from where upside is less. Until the valuation catch up it will remain in the current range. Market is in consolidated phase. And do remember that other em's are at cheap valuations so fii's are likely to put their money in those markets too. Because the ground reality is quite same in India. Monsoon pan out, RBI rate cut, Banks pass rate cut effect to customers, Fed rate hike, Greece debt crisis, Oil Price, Inflation level, Debt crisis of public banks. All the factors are likely to effect. So be prepared.

 

Leading bull market sectors are transformational in nature. At the end of the bull market, we will realize how the country benefitted from the bull market. So it has to be something big like pharma or defense or infra or something like that. I'd bet on pharma since we've seen leadership from that sector. There will also be fads that need to be separated from secular trends.

 

From 2009-2013 pharma was the leader. So do you think pharma in general will do good in run too?