Grossly Undervalued Stock

Discussion in 'Ask A Query About Your Stock Picks And Portfolio' started by Rumple, May 22, 2015.

  1. Rumple

    Rumple New Member

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    Recently came across a grossly undervalued stock and would like to check with others if there is something I am missing. Why is it so neglected in this bull market.

    Here are the facts.

    1. It is the market leader in its business in India.
    2. Eps Rs 90 for year ended 2015
    3. Dividend 200%
    3. PE ration just 7
    4. Book value over Rs 550
    5. Current Market price Rs 640

    Unbelievable but true. The stock is HIL Ltd
     
  2. Meenakshi Razdan

    Meenakshi Razdan Administrator Staff Member Moderator

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    Well, the one problem with HIL (and Visaka Industries, which is its smaller competitor) is the use / reliance on asbestos. Asbestos is highly toxic and a known cause of mesothelioma cancer. It is banned in more than 50 countries and its use is dramatically restricted in others. It is only a question of time before India takes some stringent action on this. This fear has been plaguing HIL for several years now. The stock has always been cheap for that reason.

    HIL is conscious of the risk (Asbesto cement roofing firm HIL shifts focus to greener building products) though the costs will rise if they shift to a non-asbestos product and the margins could take a steep cut.

    There is a research report from IndiaNivesh which recommends a buy
     
  3. Rumple

    Rumple New Member

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    Thanks Meenakshi from your response as well as the links.

    The company's annual report is bullish about future prospects since the BJP govt is focusing on low cost housing.

    As an experienced investor, would you suggest avoiding HIL all together or having a small exposure.
    Do you think an equivalent performance this year or a bonus would lead to a rerating?

    Look forward to your response.
     
  4. Meenakshi Razdan

    Meenakshi Razdan Administrator Staff Member Moderator

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    Well, there is no doubt that the housing space is going to boom. There are a number of ways to play that theme. Roof top makers is only one of them. The only problem with HIL is the overhang of the asbestos issue. This has kept serious investors away from the stock. That trend may continue in the future as well until the company totally goes green.

    I suggest you prepare a shopping list of the various mid-cap companies in the housing space (ceramics, sanitary ware, finance, cement, etc). We can then evaluate their respective strengths and weaknesses and decide on the appropriate stocks to play the theme.
     
  5. Rumple

    Rumple New Member

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    Thanks Meenakshi, your answer suggests I forget HIL till it goes fully green....which is unlikely for the next five years at least.
     
  6. Meenakshi Razdan

    Meenakshi Razdan Administrator Staff Member Moderator

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    Well, there is no doubt about the management's ability or the demand for the product. The company also has in place an ambitious expansion project. However, I am a bit nervous about the stock because of the asbestos issue. It is already a highly controversial issue. The Supreme Court refused to ban it even though some NGOs filed a PIL. However, there is pressure and if the Government takes some regulatory action, the stock would react adversely.

    https://www.ctvnews.ca/business/banned-in-much-of-the-developed-world-asbestos-going-strong-in-india-1.1955931

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asbestos_and_the_law#India
     
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