Identifying features of the bottom of bear market

As matter of fact market panic has just started, which is indication of bottom of bear market. But how long this bottom will last? What are the IDENITFYING FEATURES OF THE END OF BEAR BOTTOM? These are the questions which need answer urgently- given the prevailing panic situation. I understand we have , amongst us, many experieced, knowledgeable- both from fundamental and technical perspective- ,and intelligent investors like Mr kharb, Mr darth, sashtriji, MrFun _da_mentalist,Mr Mukherjee, Mr bombay boy, Mr pravin gala, Mr kartikay et all who can guide, we nervous investors, in this regard.

 

CNBC TV18 had conducted a Broker's poll regarding the subject. Most of the Brokers feel that 6800 is the Nifty Bottom. However, Technical Analyst Vivek Patil feels that Sensex would go down to 15,000 if it breaks the 21,300 level. Vivek Patil is the only Analyst, who had predicted that the Markets would fall sharply when the Sensex was around 30,000.

 

View from S Nagnath's (Chief Investment Officer - DSP Blackrock MF) - 12th Feb 2016. The same is also echoed by other senior fund managers in the industry.

His view going foward is

1. We are nearing the bottom around 6800-6900 on the Nifty where it will find support. Likely downside from here can be 2-3%

2. Central Bankers across the globe likely to make policy and procedure changes by way of monetary easing or fiscal stimulus for growth over the next 3-4 weeks.

3. This will give rise to a Relief Rally which may last 1-3 months.

4. This rally could take the markets 10-20% higher by may -june period to touch 8000-8400 on the Nifty.

5. Second half of the year we may see renewed global crisis as Highly Leveraged Commodity Companies unwind, China growth slowdown and devaluation of Yuan, Banking shares under pressure and continued pressure on Commodity producers with low commodity prices. This will lead to another equity meltdown.

6. India from a relative standpoint would fare better on :

A. GDP growth of 7.6%, even a 7% on downside it will be the fastest growing economy.

B. Lower oil prices contributing to better Current Account and Fiscal Deficit.

C. While earnings have been lacklustre and in single digits over the last 2 years, they will show improvement in the next 2 years with FY17 reflecting a 15% growth.

Reasons for Earnings improvement :

1. No more downgrades of Commodity producers. This may lead to flat or improved earnings

2. Benefit to Commodity consumers on lower oil and commodity prices

3. Expectations of normal monsoon in 2016, should push rural demand and consumption will improve. Consumer discretionary sector will do better.

4. Private Capex will start in the next 9-12months on back of Government spending especially in infra starts adding to growth. Capital goods and engineering companies to benefit.

Interest Rates cut likely in 2 nd half of the year about 25-50 bps.

Gold to remain between $ 1200-1400 which is currently $ 1243.

 

A Must See Article ... Please do watch the video of Dale Davidson ...

https://thesovereigninvestor.com/exclusives/80-stock-market-crash-to-strike-in-2016/

An analysis based on charts ...

https://www.profitconfidential.com/...ow-were-on-the-verge-of-a-stock-market-crash/

 

Buying opportunities exists in all markets. One must get out of overvalued stocks and switch to undervalued stocks

 

G

Can you give some names of good undervalued stocks currently and also stocks which should be sold because they are overvalued

 

What is your/members view about Eicher motor as many ( I don't know ) say it falls in later Catagry you mentioned.

 

For me eicher is a hold at these levels as I dont think it will go beyond 21-22k in the next 6-12months. But a clear buy on corrections... Like I did in the recent market correction

 

I think they are having paid service. May not give stocks names just like that. Fees has to be paid.

 

Isn't this a site meant for retail investors? If yes then what is a paid services doing here

 

Good point.

 

Advertising/ promoting their services

 

And i suppose with the knowledge and approval of the ADMINISTRATORS

 

@ shakti ji

i already mentioned market bottoms in my old posts with nifty spot chart and after that it reached my nifty level at 6825 bottom and take support at that point and began pull back to higher levels now at 7716
there is a chance of high supply area at 7900-8000 levels

if it break nifty spot 8000 level and sustain for few days it may went to 9000 level

if it again break 6800 again it may get good demand area at 6500 level