Portfolio Re-Allignment

Dear All,

I have been reading your blog for last few months and have been highly impressed with your knowledge and selfless services.
In the same regards i wanted your advise.
I hold the below listed scrips in my name and want your advice that which ones should i liquidate and which ones i should keep for medium to long term.

1 Allied Digital Technology 4350
2 Anant Raj Real Estate 5000
3 Bartonics Technology 500
4 Bharat Forge Ltd. Auto Ancilliary 100
5 BSEL Infra Realty Real Estate 10206
6 Cairns India Oil & Gas 4700
7 Chambal Breweries Liquor 2225
8 C Mahendra Export Exports 6000
9 Claris LifeSciences Pharmaceuticals 500
10 DB Realty Ltd. Real Estate 4000
11 Delta Corp Ltd Casino 6000
12 Edserve Soft Systems Education 2000
13 Electrosteel Steels Metals 45000
14 Empee Distilleries Alcohol 1000
15 EON Electric Electrical 5000
16 Everonn Education 100
17 Future Consumer Products FMCG 22000
18 Granules India Pharmaceuticals 1000
19 Hindustan Zinc Metals 2000
20 HOEC Oil & Gas 1000
21 HCC Ltd. Infrastructure 5000
22 HT Media Media 1000
23 IDFC Ltd. NBFC 10000
24 IDFC Bank Ltd. Banking 14300
25 IL&FS ECCL Infrastructure 1000
26 Jaiprakash Assoc. Infrastructure 20000
27 Jaiprakash Power Power 20000
28 Jaypee Infratech Real Estate 37000
29 Just Dial Ltd. Ecommerce 100
30 Kingfisher Airlines Airlines 5000
31 Lloyd Electric Durables 1000
32 Lanco Infratech Ltd. Infrastructure 5000
33 Lumax Industries Auto Ancilliary 200
34 Man Infrastructure Infrastructure 7000
35 Man Industries Steel Pipes 1000
36 MCX Exchange 400
37 MMTC Ltd. Trading 10000
37 MRO Tek Ltd. Plastics 5000
38 NCC Ltd Infrastructure 1000
39 NOCIL Ltd Chemicals 5000
40 NCL Ltd. Cement 1000
41 Omkar Speciality Chemicals Chemicals 1000
42 Pidilite Industries Adhesive 100
43 Pipapav Shipyard Defence 2000
44 Pincon Spirits Alcohol 1000
45 Polaris Consulting Technology 1000
46 Pyramid Saimira Theatres Entertainment 3808
47 RattanIndia Infrastructure Infrastructure 60000
48 Resurgere Mines Metals 10000
49 Rolta India Software 2000
50 Sahyadri Industries Building Material 1000
51 Sanjvani Parental Pharmaceuticals 5000
52 Spicejet Airlines 7000
53 Snowman Logistics Logistics 500
54 South Indian Bank Banking 5000
55 Subex Systems Auto Ancilliary 30000
56 Suzlon Energy Ltd. Non Conv. Power 40000
57 Suven Life Sciences Pharmaceuticals 1000
58 Tamil Nadu Petro Products Petrochemicals 10000
59 Tanla Solutions Technology 2000
60 TCI Logistics 100
61 TRIL Capital Goods 4000
62 U Flex Industries Chemicals 600
63 Unitech Ltd. Real Estate 5000
64 Xl Energy Ltd. Non Conv. Power 10000
65 Varun Industries Ltd Trading 3000
66 Videocon Industries Durables 400
67 VRL Logistics Ltd. Logistics 100
68 ZF Steering Systems Ltd. Auto Ancilliary 20

I know its a long list. Sorry for that.
Kindly revert
Abhishek

 

Can you specify your time horizon and your risk appetite so that the members here can advise you accordingly. And are you fully invested or you have some cash to be deployed? The members can help you with picking stocks too according to your investment profile

 

Almost all my holdings are for minimum 6 months and maximum 3 years baring Suven, IDFC Bank and Future consumer which plan to hold for 5-10 years. I am still siting on 20% pc cash. I am not a newbie to investing and have built this portfolio over 10 years. But I saw a lot of learned fellow here and I think I can use some good advise.

 

Are you comfy with so many stocks? What is logic of so many stocks? (not criticizing only trying to understand logic). Do you have a limit or you plan to add more?

I think there is low-conviction bias in investing policy. That is why there are so many stocks (more than of mutual fund).

Have you tracked returns from the portfolio? Is it outperforming Index (Junior Bees) and by how much?

If you are comfy with so many stocks and you are getting reasonable return it is OK. Otherwise I suggest consolidation of portfolio to eliminate duplicates and focus on top performer stocks and removal of non-performing ones.

 

Firstly thanks for spending time. Your keen eye has observed that I have in many cases multiple stocks of Same fleet. Yes I am comfortable with so many stocks but my general average is between 40-45 stocks. I normally pick best fundamental midcap/small cap in a sector. But normally it may not be the best mover then I also pick the best momentum one in that sector. I am also quick at spotting turn around script. I have never benchmark ed myself against any index as I am not a big believer of it. But my portfolio has grown from 14 lacs start to 1.3 crore in 11 years which is a decent achievement for me. I don't believe is large caps much as they don't multiply much. I did very poorly in initial 4 years but there after recovered fast. While many stocks have been multi baggers with recent ones like IDFC @ 50 which has been split into IDFC and IDFC Bank, FCEL@11, SpiceJet @14, Lloyd @120, suzlon@12, Hindustan zinc @7, Lanco@3, subex@9. But then I lost heavily in Allied Digital@225, Jaypee assoc@35, Jaypee Infra@38, Videocon@230, mmtc@86.

 

Banking I only believe in IDFC Bank to multiply. But I do believe i have very low exposure to Pharma and software.

 

Bartronics, bsel Realty, c Mahendra and king fisher were my other duds

 

WOW That is CAGR of 25.17%. Great achievement

 

Why? Pharma has been consistent performer for several years. I suggest look at JB Chem, Ajanta, Shilpa Medicare and Granules India.

 

Yes. But has been much higher in last 7 years cosindering I screwed myself in 1st four years and lost 50% capital when market were roaring. Yes I wish to add pharma, it's just valuation too high right now. I already hold granules and Suven. Looking at Lupin,/Shilpa/ JB Chem /strides.

 

making 9 times returns on a large portfolio over 11 years is not a mean feat. congratulations on that. first of all i must say that i am not as experienced as you in the stock markets. even then my opinion is that your portfolio is strong on fundamentals and can give you good returns in long run. a periodical(yearly/half yearly) follow up should be made to ride on the performers and get rid of non performers.

 

Thanks for the compliment. Yes I do review my poftfolio after every quaterly result and also when there some important sectoral or company based news/change.

 

Hi Abhishekji,
First of all let me congratulate your patience and willingness to hold stocks for so long. Good to see returns you have generated, but I think it would have been much higher by deweeding of portfolio .

I like your below holding and these will generate good returns I beleive .

22 HT Media Media
18 Granules India Pharmaceuticals
43 Pipapav Shipyard Defence
50 Sahyadri Industries Building Material
53 Snowman Logistics Logistics
57 Suven Life Sciences Pharmaceuticals
60 TCI Logistics
67 VRL Logistics Ltd. Logistics

I used to follow one gentleman long ago, extremely knowledgeable in banking and stocks, he used to say he do not buy stocks with south based names, markets do not give them their fair due .


You have already seen 2/3 bull runs, may be you can just get rid of stocks who are giving below average returns or not turning around ? For me it is that straight forward .


Last few quarters, thought of growing stocks in my portfolio was running in my mind .
I had some stocks where I booked partial profits to generate free shares and was willing to ride. But soon I realized It consume good bandwidth to track so many stocks. Also we may miss lot of other good, fast moving opportunities during this bull run, where lot of stocks are multiplying in just few quarters.


Hope it helps.
Thanks & Regards,
Prashant

 

Thank Prashant. Appreciate your advise. Do let me know which ones you think that I should discard and which ones to replace them with.

 

Dear Abhishekji,
I will not advice to replace anything, I will advice to reduce to 20-30 .
I have advised what you can hold . May be you can just have a bucket of turn around bets, study them again and get rid of stocks whose stories are either with less conviction or not working out.

Other bucket that need not attention and will keep performing .
But now you may need to spend lot of efforts in visiting so many stocks and decision making .
Please get rid of all reality stocks, its not worth . Since I have not done any homework can not suggest on other unknown stocks .

Hope it helps .
Thanks,
Prashant

 

I am not specifically targetting realty stocks. I had purchased them in last 2 months purely with the hope that we will see a strong turnaround in H2 next years and will turn multibaggers.
However, i am immediately looking at getting rid of these stocks and just waiting for a slight increase in prices:

1 Allied Digital Technology 4350
3 Bartonics Technology 500
5 BSEL Infra Realty Real Estate 10206
7 Chambal Breweries Liquor 2225
8 C Mahendra Export Exports 6000
9 Claris LifeSciences Pharmaceuticals 500
12 Edserve Soft Systems Education 2000
13 Electrosteel Steels Metals 45000
14 Empee Distilleries Alcohol 1000
15 EON Electric Electrical 5000
16 Everonn Education 100
19 Hindustan Zinc Metals 2000
20 HOEC Oil & Gas 1000
30 Kingfisher Airlines Airlines 5000
37 MRO Tek Ltd. Plastics 5000
39 NOCIL Ltd Chemicals 5000
40 NCL Ltd. Cement 1000
42 Pidilite Industries Adhesive 100
43 Pipapav Shipyard Defence 2000
44 Pincon Spirits Alcohol 1000
46 Pyramid Saimira Theatres Entertainment 3808
47 RattanIndia Infrastructure Infrastructure 60000
48 Resurgere Mines Metals 10000
49 Rolta India Software 2000
50 Sahyadri Industries Building Material 1000
51 Sanjvani Parental Pharmaceuticals 5000
58 Tamil Nadu Petro Products Petrochemicals 10000
64 Xl Energy Ltd. Non Conv. Power 10000
65 Varun Industries Ltd Trading 3000
66 Videocon Industries Durables 400

 

1.Bharat Forge Ltd. Auto Ancilliary 100
2. Future Consumer Products FMCG 22000
3.Granules India Pharmaceuticals 1000
4.Hindustan Zinc Metals 2000
5.HT Media Media 1000
6.IDFC Ltd. NBFC 10000
7.IDFC Bank Ltd. Banking 14300
8.MCX Exchange 40038
9.NCC Ltd Infrastructure 100042
10.Pidilite Industries Adhesive 10049
11.Rolta India Software 2000
12.South Indian Bank Banking 5000
13.Suven Life Sciences Pharmaceuticals 1000
14.U Flex Industries Chemicals 600

hold these stocks in your portfolio and remaining stocks exit in a market rally

You are a high net worth investor .... please reconstruct your portfolio .... limit maximum up to 25 stocks maximum above mentioned stocks are some good stocks in your entire portfolio


ALL THE BEST

 

thank you Mr. Murthy, will definitely ponder over what you said..

 

I bought 40k Lanco infra @ 7.2. Pls suggest..

 

hold on for the long haul.
i bought 5000@3.60 and wanted to add but it straightaway shotup to 6.5-7 and never got a chance. waiting for levels of 5.5 to add more. Operationally the company is positive about a turn around. They have put on hold all stake sales showing their faith in the operations to turn around. Cost cutting has been done at ground level. With Infrastructure seeing signs of revival with major thrust on THermal and clean energy, this stock could see a sun rise. My target is 26-30 till dec 30th 2016. However, i shall be selling half the stock when the price doubles just to be on safer side.