Repco Home Finance

Article at Janav.wordpress.com

Before valuing the business let’s first understand the thesis on which our valuation is going to hinge on. There is a shortage of 18.78 million homes. In 2015 RHFL had 57,415 accounts. If we assume that each account represents one home then RHFL current market share of homes is 0.31%. From the chart given below we can see that mortgage penetration in India is very low. From these two facts we can safely assume that there is a lot of room for future growth.

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With a reasonable exit multiple of two times book the market capitalization + dividends of RHFL in year 2025 will be around Rs 10,500 crores. Its current market capitalization is Rs 3,750 crores. If someone buys RHFL today and holds it for the next ten years then he would get a compounded return of around 11%. Given that lending business is prone to negative black swans, I need additional returns to commensurate for the risk incurred.

https://janav.wordpress.com/2015/06/09/repco-home-finance/