Cairn India - what is wrong with this stock

Discussion in 'Ask A Query About Your Stock Picks And Portfolio' started by aditya_ravipati@yahoo.co., Mar 28, 2015.

  1. aditya_ravipati@yahoo.co.

    aditya_ravipati@yahoo.co. New Member

    Joined:
    Mar 19, 2015
    Messages:
    22
    Likes Received:
    0
    hi all ..can some one tell me why cairn india is at such low valuations. the stock is 5 trailing PE, .7 of book value, dividend yield is 5%.

    row is 20% of so..no debt and total current assets are 18Cr and market cap is only twice current assets. that mean the rest of the business is only valued at 20cr.
    even if the profits go down 50% which is how much the crude oil has fallen the stock is at 10PE..

    i understand that crude oil is at all time low prices...but i am unable to see why such low valuations.
    is it all the things that management does or is it just fear that's pulling this stock down.

    does anyone follow this stock can you please let me know
     
  2. Meenakshi Razdan

    Meenakshi Razdan Administrator Staff Member Moderator

    Joined:
    Mar 19, 2015
    Messages:
    430
    Likes Received:
    150
    I think there are two reasons why the market is shunning Cairn. The first is the steep fall in the crude prices. The second is the act of corporate (mis) governance where they lent $1.25B to a subsidiary of its affiliate. It is feared that this will adversely affect Cairn's own capex plans.

    However, some experts feel this is an opportunity to buy Cairn at depressed valuations. I covered the interview of Prakash Diwan of Altamount Capital a few days ago. He said:

    https://rakesh-jhunjhunwala.in/the-stock-picks-of-prakash-diwan-of-altamount-capital/

    IndiaNivesh has same view:

    https://rakesh-jhunjhunwala.in/two-stock-picks-of-daljeet-kohli/

    Dr. Vikas Gupta of Arth Veda has also cited Cairn India as a "value buy" as per Graham-Buffett formula.

    https://rakesh-jhunjhunwala.in/top-10-value-stocks-based-on-graham-buffet-formula-give-29-cagr-gain-in-11-years/

    However, the unknown variable is how long crude prices will remain depressed. Unless that cycle reverses itself, the prospects of gain from Cairn may be elusive.
     
  3. devansh.goel

    devansh.goel New Member

    Joined:
    Mar 22, 2015
    Messages:
    11
    Likes Received:
    0
    I think that $ is bound to come down sharply sooner or later. We havent seen the effect of huge Savings the GOI is making due to the steep crude fall. Theoretically,the imports should come drastically down as crude is a major part of India's imports, and as a result INR should strengthen considerably. We havent seen much of that. I wonder why.

    I see USD stabilising in the 55INR range in less than a year's time.

    So, I wouldn't bet too much on Cairn right now. But that's only me!!
     
  4. aditya_ravipati@yahoo.co.

    aditya_ravipati@yahoo.co. New Member

    Joined:
    Mar 19, 2015
    Messages:
    22
    Likes Received:
    0
    thank you...great analysis by all of you
     
  5. anindyaswati

    anindyaswati Member

    Joined:
    Aug 9, 2015
    Messages:
    34
    Likes Received:
    19
    i will never invest in cairan as i do not rust the promoter
     
Loading...