WANT TO PLAY BEATEN DOWN LARGE CAP FOR RECOVERY,KEEP A WATCH ON ICICI,AXIS & L&T

Fear ,Greed and Fear .Now again it will be turn of Greed.Many large caps have been beaten down beyond what they deserve due to fear factor .Stocks beaten down in Name of Unknown which every body pretending to be knowing under fear.But ICICI bank,Axis bank and L&T are more than capable of crossing the Storm with less pain as has been built into price under fear.Cat will be out in next four months and market may surprise to see the size of cat which will be smaller ,while they have priced in Tiger under fear.So market may take guard to correct this .So these three may be option to look for a definite recovery in six months So those having these can hold on without fear and those want to play Recovery may look into these for Sharp Recovery when market stablise. Only for discussion as I never recommend any stock.

 

crouching tiger, hidden dragon?

there will be no sharp recovery from at least what i see it as and the excesses built up in the small/mid-cap space is yet to see a serious correction which will continue because earnings won't catchup with the hyped expectations

currency wars in a global economy with deflationary pressure, the beloved INR will be heading towards 70 vs the USD, falling exports, capital controls on gold imports

those 3 stocks aren't beaten down for no reason, but for valid reasons - yes, you can debate that my argument is flawed and invalid but the markets seem to be thinking otherwise

i must state that i'd love to be proved wrong and see a V shaped recovery not just in stock prices but the real economy, alas

 

Crouching tiger, breathing fire dragon more aptly describes the situation. We as a country are not likely to rise to our true potential for various reasons that plague our country, society and all of us individually and collectively and who add up to us remaining crouching tiger iso roaring tiger.

But as they say pessimism (however realistic) is injurious to health. So my friend get optimistic. Just keep believing that this correction is shortterm, India will gain from China slowdown, the govt efforts will bear fruits soon and 2016 will be a bright shining year for Indian stocks. But In the midst of this, do brace yourself for currency wars, rupee depreciation ( 72/- coming in the next 2-3 qtrs), parliment logjam, terrorist attacks, Big Boss Finale, Filmfare Awards, big debate with arnab, fiscal indiscipline, higher taxes and inflation.

All the best..

 

Will the real RJ join this forum? Will he give small retail investors a share of his knowledge? Is this the bottom? What to buy/sell?



among all the gloom and doom and the depressing stock prices, Arnab rises to the occasion

 

Why do you think that ICICI, Axis and L&T will correct?

Axis hid NPA's and was punished by the market. There is a fear that Axis and ICICI have classified NPA's as bad loan. But due to RBI pressure, it is no longer possible to do so. So their NPA's may increase tremendously leading to fall in share price.

As for L&T, as long as A. M. Naik is associated with L&T, I will not invest in it.

 

Why so?

Have usually heard the otherway around. People investing because of the person at helm of affairs.

 

Shall we tune in tonite for the 1st debate or the 2nd?

 

i think even kharb doesn't like that, vaguely remember reading a post where he's unhappy with the management of LT because there's no demanding owner (LIC & UTI largest shareholders) and these guys have practically lived their entire lives in LT and grown along the way, but there comes a time when one must let go

LT does have the attraction for people, but the old timers - Naik and his team should move on

i was at LT Infra Finance for a short time in one of the projects in an earlier employment and the environment was like a govt company - many employees call it Lunch & Tea

 

Tomorrow the China economic data will come out. I think that market fell because they expected China's GDP to slow down from 6.9 to 6.5%.

So my logic is that if China's GDP has not slowed that much i.e if it slowed down to 6.6 or 6.7 % (instead of 6.5%) then market should stabilize if not rebound. Your views.

 

The data plus what the Chinese Central Bank does/say will be important. I'm not qualified to comment on that but do understand that when you're talking about 10-50 basis points of the Chinese economy, it translates to billions of dollars. The Chinese Yuan trades within a narrow band specified by the govt. If needed, they'll devaluate it further to make Chinese exports cheaper and more competitive.

As for our markets, the bears won't let go off any reason to pounce on the fear and the negative sentiment.

 

So even if there is some bad news (very high possibility) then bears will use this opportunity to thrash the market. If there is good news then experts will accuse China of cooking the books and bears will thrash market. So tomorrow and for the next few days very high possibility of market falling.

If currency devaluation then 'bure din' for tyre, steel and even textile companies.

 

Good show ,all three are in green.

 

It seems Axis and L&T has reversed and ICICI is still giving opprtunity. After one year all pain may be over and stock might recover sharply .

 

Feeling happy on good reversal returns in all three.

 

Those who went for ICICI,AXIS and L&T at the time must be smiling with return of 32%,37% and 45% from lows by now and I hope they will be having good return in next two years also.I am enjoying ongoing party.

 

I am still bullish on my this call which was taken by me at beaten down prices 2 years back. No recommendation but for discussion.