General Sense of the Market

I wanted to start a thread, to discuss Macros and other factors which are influencing the market.
We shall put our opinions and guess where it is heading.

Right now, I think the market is directionless.

My observations past few months
1) Europe slows down, Whole world goes into Jitters, every one slows down. So Indian Market also goes down
2) The China story breaks out, same thing, Indian Market goes down again.
3) Mixed news about US, some days it goes up , some days goes down. When it goes up, Asian markets open in green, India also opens green and invariably ends in red (even when the other markets are up)

It is like Indian markets are just waiting for a reason to go down, Even if there is a reason to go up, it goes down, its like some one is selling into rallies.

Now the FED rate hike drama is going on for far too long..that I cant wait for the soap opera to end.

Last time the exact same thing happened with stopping of Quantitative easing, they were talking about it for months. All discussion was about the same. But when it actually happened, No body even cared. It was a non event in market.

Now my sense is that, even if NDA wins in bihar, there will be a 300 points rally in sensex and that will also go away by end of the day..

In the mean time, markets have royally ignored, whatever the good reasons to go up and simply sitting there and going negative for the slightest reasons.

If indeed there is a fed rate hike, we may have a good entry point, IF nifty goes below 7600 and beyond. The year will end on red.
But the next year, when the good news starts flowing, all good news will keep coming from all corners and then there will be green.

Again this is my feeling, Please feel free to share your thoughts about the MACRO's and the directions where we are heading.

 

I agree with your points. It is difficult to make any sense of where the market is headed. It may be a sensible strategy to lie low till the overhang of the FED rate hike is behind us. Once the rate hike process starts, even if on a token basis of 25bps, it will get factored in.