Posts in category Value Pickr
Ola Electric – Full Stack EV play? (11-10-2024)
Let me start with a disclosure: I am invested in OLA, and my views are biased, so take them with a pinch of salt. This is for educational purposes.
For investors, it’s important to see through the noise. There is a lot of noise in the market—so heavy that it seems OLA will be out of business soon. However, on the other hand, most brokerage reports are very positive.
There is a scarcity of data, and it’s difficult for investors to find reliable data. Hence, it’s important to view opinions/data holistically and read between the lines.
A YouTuber did a small but reliable survey. His 257 subscribers who owned OLA responded. It is reliable because he asked his subscribers to post pictures of their OLA vehicles along with their responses.
The enclosed screen is taken from the video.
Ola EV: India’s Biggest Automotive Chaos Explained!
According to it, 63% of complaints are tech-related. The YouTuber rightly pointed this out as well. And if you add suspension complaints (25%) and reverse mode (12%), other complaints are literally 1 or 2. Reverse mode also seems to be tech-related glitches, so you could say 75% of complaints are software-related, and the remaining 25% are suspension-related. If you look at it this way, it seems easily manageable.
The book, Innovator’s Dilemma, is a must-read. According to it, tech revolutions often start with inferior products and eventually improve in quality, replacing incumbents who ignore the tech revolution, thinking it won’t match their quality.
Disc: As indicated above.
Aurion Pro : Yet another IP product company? (11-10-2024)
13bd5d26-9a2a-493e-9802-509e566ba966.pdf (823.1 KB)
A new multi-Million dollar contract with a leading Saudi Bank
My 0.001% stock market journey (11-10-2024)
Indian Renewable Energy Development Agency Limited (IREDA) received in-principle approval from the Department of Investment and Public Asset Management (DIPAM), to establish a wholly-owned retail subsidiary for handling the retail business under PM-Suryaghar (Rooftop Solar), PM-KUSUM schemes and B2C segments in RE and Emerging RE sector including EVs, Energy Storage, Green Technologies, Sustainability, Energy Efficiency, etc.
Commenting on this development, Shri Pradip Kumar Das, Chairman & Managing Director, IREDA, stated, “This new retail subsidiary marks a significant milestone in our journey towards fostering sustainable energy solutions at the grassroots level. By extending our expertise in renewable energy finance to the retail market, we will provide innovative financing options for both urban and rural consumers, promoting sustainable practices and reducing carbon footprints.”
This expansion aligns with the Government of India ’s vision to accelerate renewable energy adoption across the nation and create new opportunities in the clean energy sector.
Source: IREDA (Press Release)
Sugar Cycles: 7-8 years of losses followed by 2-3 years of super gains! (11-10-2024)
Today’s International price (Dec 24): $ 566.70 ~ Rs 47500/-
Three Factors to be tick
- Current MSP ~ 31000 and industry demand of ~ 36000 – 40000
- Ethanol price revision from Rs 65.71 to 70+
- Export quote
There is some disparity on MH mill price and UP mill price ~ 4/- per kg
and season will start @ Nov’2024
Tube Investments Ltd ~ Diversified Engineering Company (11-10-2024)
TII’s market cap of about Rs.81000 crore is almost equal to the the value of its stake in two of its listed subsidiaries, CG Power (58% stake) and Shanti Gears (70% stake).
On standalone basis, its PAT was Rs.735 crore in FY24, which grew at a CAGR of 24% in last 5 years.
Its EV subsidiary TII Clean Mobility has trucks, 3 wheeler and EV component business and have plans to launch LCVs and Tractors, apart from ramping up components business. TII clean mobility has raised Rs.3000 crore through equity and CCPS from reputed funds.
Other key businesses, which are in early stage, include medical devices and CDMO.
One may argue that there should be significant holding company discount assigned to the listed subsidiaries and current market cap might also be indicating the same.
However, in my personal view, extent/existence of holdco discount in future may depend upon extent of success in new businesses and also if it is be able to achieve its aspiration of becoming a manufacturing giant.
Disc: Invested. I am not SEBI registered Advisor/Analyst. My view may be positively biased. I am not suggesting any investment action. The information provided above is for education purpose only.
NPST – Technology Provider for UPI Tech (11-10-2024)
If we look at Annual evok revenue vs Payee PSP nos. trend for FY23 vs FY24. It seems evok revenues grew 4x while Payee PSP nos. grew 2.5x. This leverage in evok revenue growth can be attributed to 2 factors.
- GTV grew faster than transaction nos. (customer spent more per transaction). One can make an assumption that change won’t reverse if no. of transactions reduce.
- NPST did charge more to customer per order value which is what evok revenue divided by GTV (from the limited data we have) seems to suggest, as this grew from .27% to .47%. We can make an assumption, this too shall not reduce if no. of transactions reduce.
But, from this point onwards, how do we assume the quantum of fall in evok revenue will not mirror the fall in Payee PSP nos. ? Unless we want to assume that the rise in 1 & 2 will continue and offset any fall in no. of transactions.
I fear, am not crystal clear that I am coming to same conclusion as you. Because these are big assumption?
Auto Industry in India – We had a chequered Past, can we expect a bright future? (11-10-2024)
Tesla launches autonomous robotaxis and humonoid robots Optimus. Massive implications.
BSE (Bombay Stock Exchange)- Bet on Financialization? (11-10-2024)
They already have declared Sensex.