I agree @vnktshb . But Sundrop has been holding on to 45% market share and seems to have grown better than Saffola in recent Q. But having said that building a food business needs lots of trials and is a real slow process. I read somewhere it took Nestle more than a decade to make Maggi profitable in India.
But it these concerns are captured in mcap @ 2 times sales.
I used to be a shareholder in this company and I sold out in frustration. Post FY12 there is hardly any growth. Edible oil (Sundrop) business is declining/ not growing due to competition from Saffola and Fortune.
Act II Popcorn and Peanut Butter are growing, but at a slower than expected pace. They launched a ready to eat product and dessert which never took off. Now they have launched Nachos which is another crowded category.
Conagra acquired Delmonte Foods globally but that is a seperate business and is not included in Agro Tech Foods.
Overall Conagra is a great global brand. Unfortunately has not delivered in India. I think even Rakesh Jhunjhunwala holds this stock hoping Conagra does some magic. So more of a thematic stock with poor delivery so far.
This is good to hear!!! Can you help with the price points of Eicher vs. other dominant players in Taipei?? Also do these other players have a manufacturing plant in Taiwan - this question is coming from the context of you mentioning higher import tax...
Thanks!
According to BNP Paribas and Equirus reports released recently, there have been fall in volume as well in ATBS and in IB.
In ATBS, the volume fall is due to lower crude prices affecting demand of Enhanced oil recovery (EoR) while in IB they have lost one of the large client. BNP says the reason is that the client has switched to another alternative product (which is a concern). Logically EPS of 3Q will reflect the impact due to loss of this client.
The concern further is that if one client is able to find substitute of IB, will other clients also follow suit or it was just one-off case depending upon the nature of industry of the client (particularly when they are adding capacity for IB). Another concern is there is no disclosure in this direction from company.
It has fallen because they've had to pass on RM (crude oil) price decrease to customers thus leading to drop in realizations. I don't think volumes have got affected (though haven't checked this) and margins and PAT have both expanded. Seems to be attractively priced at these levels (has fallen from a ttm PE of ~23 type to ~15).
Disc: Invested
Rightly pointed out. We have to be careful of that balance. We are mindful not to be seen as sitting on "Judgement". That's NOT our job.
At the same time we are very CLEAR we want to encourage participation from those who value VP culture and ethos. We want to see that belongingness, that sense of pride, and responsibility.
Members have to allow and empower us to exercise that discretion when we find clear evidence to the contrary - not from just one post - but usually from a "pattern" that establishes itself. Members must also be alert and warn us if , say, we are clearly on the wrong side of that discretion. It could happen!
We would welcome feedback ...that establishes errors on our part. It's part of our growing up at VP too.
Sunrise v/s sunset sectors.. Nice high level representation of history data available at http://www.bajaar.me/blog/hist.html.. Snapshot pasted below for a quick reference.. Thanks to @vml (Random Walker).. Brilliant work..
Takeaways (non-exhaustive)
- Pharmaceuticals, Autos, Auto Ancillaries, Agrochemicals, Furnishing on rise
- Metals & Mining, Electric Utilities, Exploration & Prod, Tobacco and Telecom Services on decline
- IT and Cement stable
Trending sectors for 2016? Barring few exceptions, I think the above trend would continue.
By Jwalit Vyas, ET Bureau | 2 Dec, 2015, 02.03AM IST
ET Intelligence Group: In a weird twist in the pharma land, Dr Reddy's Laboratories' loss due to the delayed launch of a generic drug may in fact benefit the investors of Torrent Pharmaceuticals and Cipla in the short term. The drug in focus is the generic version of Nexium, a heartburn pill, which has earned over $5.5 billion for the owner AstraZeneca so far.
Dr Reddy’s pain may bring gains for Torrent & Cipla Torrent Pharma got an approval to sell the drug's generic version last month. Cipla, too, will benefit since it is supplying ingredients to Teva, another foreign pharma company, which is selling the generic version.
Dr Reddy's launched Nexium's generic version in September end. The move was immediately challenged by AstraZeneca because Dr Reddy's version came in purple, which was starkly similar to the patented drug. This resulted in a temporary restraining order on Dr Reddy's Lab.
Recent appeal by Dr Reddy's has also been turned down last week by the Delaware Federal judge. Some analysts believe that the recent observations at Dr Reddy's plants would need a side transfer which could further delay the re-launch of Nexium. A side transfer is manufacturing the drug at some other plant and may need plant approvals by the USFDA. The benefit to other pharma players may not be necessarily in market share gain. "The operating margins of such drugs are around 80% and a new entrant can really create price erosion," said Nimish Mehta of Research Delta Advisors, a pharma focussed research firm.
According to the US healthcare information provider IMS Health, Nexium's branded and generic sales put together amounted to around $5.2 billion or `35,000 crore in the end of July.
Disclosure: Have been investing since last 2 years and continue to add on dips.
Company: This was an subsidiary later acquired by Conagra Foods USA. They hold close to 51% in the company.
Products:
Crystal edible oil (Non strategic brand and company intends to phase out slowly)
Sundrop edible oil
Act 2 popcorn
Sundrop peanut butter
Act 2 snacks
Risks:
Conagra not doing well and some restructuring going on
All conagra brands may not find favour with Indian taste
Financials: One can look at details on www.atfoods.com .
At current price it trades at PE of 38 and MCap of 1400 cr
Price to Sales : 2 times
Topline and bottomline have been erratic due to change in product profile, new product launches, Ad expenses, tax rate changes etc.
Opportunity:
Compare Unilever/P&G parent Mcap to Conagra: Approx 8-12 times
Compare Agrotech Mcap to HUL: 100 times
This is not for folks who are capable of chasing 25%+ opportunities every year.(I know there many on this forum) It is more for laid back investors who lack capability of analyzing Q financials threadbare( like me ) and who don't mind lower returns during the journey as long as they can hold it for a decade for decent returns. 
Any thoughts
