My understanding was also the same that shutdown was in Q1 and hence was expecting betr nos. from cement biz.
Anyways lets wait for the mgmt. commentary.
Posts in category Value Pickr
Apollo Tyres- Do not understand the valuation (13-11-2015)
All
I am new to Valuepickr, however must say very impressed with the input people provide, and all most all shares I had identified and increased were mentioned by one or the other on this forum
Just want to write about Apollo Tyres.
Few Details
Market Cap 8000 Cr.
Debt Approx. 1200 Cr.
Enterprise Value 9200 Cr.
Last Year 2015 EBITDA 1800 Cr.
EBITDA in 2011 972 Cr. and continuous growth year on year.
Profit for 2015 977 Cr.
Profit in 2011 440 Cr. and continuous growth year on year.
Current plans of the company
Setting up a plant in Hungary to supply in High value European market.
Increasing capacity in Chennai for radial tyres
company has closed down its South African loss making operations resulting into lower turnover but higher margins
Market Dynamics
Rubber prices are at its lowest resulting into higher margins, which may be difficult to sustain
Chinese imports of commercial vehicle tyres is increasing at an alarming speed and has now increase to around 10% of the total market for commercial vehicles and Passenger cars, it may spoil the margins in the short run, as Govt has not done anything to protect the interest of Tyre companies
While the plant in hungary can be an opportunity and can increase substantial margin, however it is only a marginal player and any adverse market condition can wipe it out
Ownership
There is a clear succession plan in the company and chairman son is being groomed to take over the chairman position
It is number 2 player in the Indian market and as the market grows it should benefit major players
I had bought this stock and it form 10 percent of my portfolio however in huge loss,
Would need expert advise from senior members of what had gone wrong with this stock, which has givens CAGR growth of more than 40 percent in last 5 years is being quoted at less than 10 PE
NCL Industries – Resumption of growth? (13-11-2015)
NCL #s looked decent on the first look. I am waiting for MD's comments on plant maintenance shutdown. My understanding is that the maintenance happened in Q1. On the contrary, if it had happened in Q2, these are excellent #s. Need clarity here.
Boards division has performed very nicely. EBIT : 7cr vs 5cr last quarter. This is operating at ~35% EBITDA margins. This is a positive development though minor.
Raising 320cr through NCDs could be looked upon as positive depending on the borrowing cost. Their current borrowing cost stands @ 12%.
I believe the utilization levels were fairly decent this quarter(assuming plant maintenance happened this quarter). If the company was going through sub-60% levels for the 2nd quarter, the management wouldn't have confidently come out asking for capital for expansion.
Waiting for MD's comments on maintenance shutdown.
Thanks,
Ravi S
Disc - Invested from lower levels.
Canfin homes ltd (13-11-2015)
Hi Amitayu,
PNB housing on its website provides annual reports for last 5 years which are an excellent read and provide detailed analysis of the sector and company.
www.pnbhousing.com/about-us/financial-highlights/
PNB Housing is the fastest growing HFC and has been growing even faster than canfin over the last few years with loan book rising from 3000 crores in 2012 to 22000 crore currently at a CAGR of 60% plus.
Immense potential now given that Carlyle fund recently bought a significant equity in the business - Carlyle were early investors in both HDFC and Repco housing - both of which they made an excellent return..
Check their H1FY16 outstanding performance - www.pnbhousing.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/H1-Results-2015-16.pdf
Hester Biosciences – Growing Steadily (13-11-2015)
Hi.
While I don't have a concrete answer, what I have understood with respect to the delay is:
- Promoter exuberance. Rajiv Gandhi has in the past offered tall claims that do practically take longer to pan out. Timelines are not his strongest point
- In the initial period there had been delays in getting approvals with respect to layouts and design that took sometime to be resolved.
- As you mentioned the earthquake slowed down work earlier this year
- In the last conference call he specifically mentioned the social trouble, in particular the border blockade being another reason for the delay.
There could be others which I am not aware of.
While he sounded confident of running a test batch in December (on the con call) - Personally I think it may take a little longer than that.
Disc: Invested. >5% of my PF
Indian terrain—play on consumption (13-11-2015)
What I meant was exactly what dhawaldoshi said.
REPCO home finance – another Gruh in the making? (13-11-2015)
- If you listen to Repco's management they see ample growth, so till
the time you see this 25-30% growth entry of all other HFCs is not a
concern - Also, you need to factor in the fact that, Repco is very
less leveraged, with higher leverage in future ROEs would increase,
MOSL report on this says ROE would improve to 24% by FY20 - Also, in 10lac segments they are still primary in Tamil Nadu... whole country
represents growth opportunities - Non- salaried is also a growth niche, not easy to penetrate
I dont see why it won't double in 3 years unless a global meltdown happens.
Indian terrain—play on consumption (13-11-2015)
Oh yes, definitely. That was just on a lighter note. Maybe I shud have qualified my statement in terms of doesn't matter on sales booking front.
I have been invested (9% of my PF) in ITFL since Feb'2015 and expect better things ahead
Although I am not sure of what to make of the related party transaction, but none the less I expect better things business performance wise.
Indian terrain—play on consumption (13-11-2015)
Diwali shopping normally happens for customers 15-20 days ahead of Diwali and stock gets purchased by franchisee nearly a month ago, last year Diwali was at around 20-22 October, so sales of Diwali season was fully booked in sales figures of Indian terrain or for that matter all garments company in Q2 only, this year Diwali was on November 11th, so much of Diwali season sales would have been booked in October month. Only Q3 figures would tell actual figures. Fingers crossed....
Hester Biosciences – Growing Steadily (13-11-2015)
Can someone tracking this provide insights as to why the Nepal plant has been such a drag? The first post on this thread way back in Dec 2012 mentions that it was expected to be ready by Feb 2013, and we have now seen three years go by and its still not up? Is this because of pending client contracts? regulatory approvals? government clearance? The annual report and stock market filings do not give out much except for the Nepal earthquake which happened in early 2015.