My view – Open for discussion and feedback from veteran boarders.
1. I feel results are pretty decent from all angles, sales for H1 is flat as compared to H1 last year despite delayed festive season this year. This means most probably we will see far better Q3 results.
2. Operating margin for H1-2014 was 10.20% (15.81/155.35) which has increased to 11.29% (17.20/152.33) in H1-2015. Company had already indicated in their AGM that they are expecting margin to grow 1-1.25% annually and that it will peak out at 15-16%.
3. PAT figures have increased by Rs. 8.1 crores from Rs. 9.04 crores in H1-2014 to Rs. 17.15 crores in H1-2015. This is due to increase of interest income by Rs. 2.5 crore, reduction in interest cost by Rs. 1.8 crores, diff in provision for tax by Rs. 2.4 crore and rest is 1.4 crores increase in operating income. In my view except Rs. 2.4 crore of provision for tax, rest 5.7 crore is genuine increase partly due to operating margin increase and partly due to financial structure change.
4. ROCE part- ROCE for H1-2015 is very healthy at 27% approx. (Avg Capital employed is Rs. 125 crores and EBIT is 17.20 crore for half year.)(Capital employed = Cap + Res + Long term loans + short term borrowings – Current investments.) For me any that generates more than 24% ROCE, ie., > 2% per month is good model for investment, irrespective of whether is cash and carry or last mile investment model.
5. Valuation – Due to delayed festive season, Q3 is expected to be very good, but even if it turns out to be decent growth, we can easily see 42-45 EPS for full year. (EPS of H1 is Rs. 24). So at cmp of 630, its still trading at just 14-15 PE multiple of FY16 earnings.
6. We may see some positive revenue surprise from their Indian Terrain Boy brand, their new accessories launch or effect to TV commercials. That’s all additional benefit.
7. The only point that I think is not their best decision is to buy that property of Celebrity fashions. That will unnecessarily reduce that ROCE and profitability. Anyways, considering the fact that there are benefited much coz of captive manufacturing by Celebrity and fact that celebrity is in needs of funds, it seems ok.
8. Also one more point that I consider as positive point is recent entry of few visionary investors in this counter, BSE bulk buying shows Indian terrain has been bought by Kedia Securities, Malabar fund, and Om Kedar Investment (Prof. Shavanand Mankekar). (all at around 550 levels in month of January).
So to summarise, I feel there is much scope for business and valuation growth in near term in this counter.
Disclaimer – Invested at 600 level.
Posts in category Value Pickr
Indian terrain—play on consumption (09-11-2015)
Avanti Feeds (09-11-2015)
Provision anyways hits PL before coming to Balance Sheet. Try passing a JE for inventory hit without routing through PL.
Also this kind of expense would have shown in the margins or the exceptional items in PL.
Page industries (09-11-2015)
Now PE of 70X looks extremely high for Page Industries, seeing its last 3 QTRS Growth rate of 20-25% .....Its slowing down definitely.
Exited the stock today after 3 years of Holding.
Avanti Feeds (09-11-2015)
ashwini
thanks - the way I thought about it was such short term provisions are also created for issues related to product liabilities - eg., warranty claims, deficiency in quality. Given that I know for a fact that there have been a few issues, is it possible that they created a provision which they will flow into the P & L whenever approrpriate (when litigation is complete or negotiation is done), so could it be a few containers of shrimps which are returned/of lower quality which will soon hit the PL.
your views would be enlightening.
Mastek Demerger – Special Situation (09-11-2015)
Sorry - I do not hold any shares of Mastek / Majesco. thanks
Mastek Demerger – Special Situation (09-11-2015)
IndiaNiveshSecuritiesLimited_MajescoLtd(MJCO)Q2FY16ResultUpdateNov_06_2015.pdf (300.1 KB)
Hello - Attaching Majeso report from India Nivesh. Target price 549. But India Nivesh forgot to subtract the share of Mastek Ltd. and of USA listed entity Majesco to arrive at the valuation of the India holding company Majesco valuation.
India's Majesco share is roughly 2/3rd so the target prices should be 549 *2/3 = ~ 366 rupees and not 549 rupees.
My two cents.
Awaiting comments
VSt Tillers and Tractors limited (09-11-2015)
The kind of places tillers would sell need to have small holdings. So places like Punjab are out. The company sells quite a few units in Maharashtra but here the land holdings seems huge. As such Kerala is also a good market. Another places where tiller markets would be huge is Bihar, Bengal, Assam etc. But there the labour cost is so low that it beats having a tiller.
The industry seems only able to support that many players due to less sales.
Of the three power tillers listed in company's website, two are 600+ & one is 1000+ cc diesel engines. Compare it to motocycles (say bullets), the price seems justified, even less. Btw, the company licenses the technology from Mitsubishi.
As pointed out in point 1, most small land holders :
a. Work in their own fields
b. Have access to cheaper labour
c. Don't have the wherewithal to buy tillers even with the loan & the subsidy.
Chembond Chemicals- A Perfect Misvalued Bet (09-11-2015)
I have seen many a times that shareholders expect hefty dividends after a sale of business/land etc. But is it desirable? Asking because I am not competent to understand it.
If company has alternatives to build capacity in related or same business or they have capability to invest in business and make more money for us then I do not want one time dividend. If it is idle then I want it.
Thanks
Amol
Zen technologies – A micro cap in the defense space- Can it be the next defence multibagger? (09-11-2015)
Here https://www.screener.in/company/ZENTEC/ in the Pros & Cons it's written that the promoter's stake is down & promoter's stake is up.
What's going on here?
Intellect Design Arena PICK for 2015 (09-11-2015)
@hrishikesh
Hi, Since you have done extensive work on the company, can you please clarify some doubts for me?
You have moved ahead in your projections by creating an expense schedule assuming 50% gross profit margins. However can you please make me understand how can we get that by the current expenses schedule shown in the annual report. There are two major head of expenses in the Income Statement for 2015 i.e Employee costs & Other expenses. The former is 88% of sales while the latter is 26% of sales. Now while checking the schedules out of 530 crores of employee expenses for 2015 500 crores is for salaries which i believe include the expenditure for R&D as well. However is their any way of finding out how much from this expenditure goes under the head R&D and how much is normal employee cost. Secondly, of the Other expenditure of 158 crores for FY 15 30% is travelling expenditure while business promotion is just 10% of the head. Now, i just want to understand that should i take the promoter's word on the numbers or is their any way by which we can validate the projections through the accounts as well. I am very new to this sector hence the query