Announces Q2 results:
The Company has posted a net profit of Rs. 582.20 million for the quarter ended September 30, 2015 as compared to Rs. 489.70 million for the quarter ended September 30, 2014. Total Income has increased from Rs. 4320.80 million for the quarter ended September 30, 2014 to Rs. 4505.50 million for the quarter ended September 30, 2015.
Top line Growth: 4%
Bottom line Growth: 19%
Couldn't understand the price movement, post the result. I was hoping for an upper circuit kind of move, with these results but Mr.market gave Alembic a sulk. Can anyone weigh in here ? Is this considered a flash in the pan result ? After all, this isn't like your Lupin result ( annus horribilis) announced today. Hoping for some insights
I dialled in second half of the call, missed the inital 20-25 mins of the call. here are few points which I noted:
the management didnt disclose the contribution of Abilify in Q2. They have lost market share in Abilify in last 2-3 months. They reached 10% market share but now its down to 6%. The management said there has been drop in prices of Abilify after the entry of Apcotex and recently after the entry of Aurobindo.
R&D expense in H1 FY16 is around 158cr (disclosed in the investor presentation). The management is guiding for R&D expense of 250 cr in FY16.
The company plans to launch 6-8 products every year for next 2-3 years in US.
Q2 FY 16 doesnt include any contribution from gCelebrex. It is launched through partner in US and its contribution will be reflected in Q3 FY16.
-Alembic has now its own front end team in US. They are selling gZomig through there own front end team (not sure about this drug name, plz check)
-There were some one -off expenses in 'other expenses" (like litigation costs) in Q2 but management didnt quantify the one off exp.
I'm really surprised at the amount of brickbats this company gets and has been receiving since Q2 results. 
I've done a quick 5 minute comparison analysis for the last 4 years for Page and Kitex (similar businesses according to me apart from balance sheet/m.cap size which is reflected in their P/E I believe) to try and understand if the criticism for Kitex is fair by any means:-
Page (2011-2015)
Revenue Growth - 3x
Profit Growth - 3.2x
Debt to Equity - Down from .85 to .35
RoE - 50-55% consistently
NPM - 12-14% stable
Current P/E - 78
Kitex (2011-15)
Revenue Growth - 2x
Profit Growth - 4.7x
Debt to Equity - Down from 1.25 to .6
RoE - Increased from 25-27% to 32-34%
NPM - Massive jump from 8% to 20%
Current P/E - 32
Based on the above numbers, IMHO Kitex is absolutely fairly valued (give or take 10-15%). As long as their is earnings growth, the valuations should remain stable unless they can no longer increase margins because of low revenue growth.
But with 20-30% PAT growth numbers, I'm not sure what else people are expecting? I'd take 20-30% earnings growth any day even if revenue is muted if I've invested with any degree of MoS.
I agree with the fact that there is little MoS at current valuations and it may require a leap of faith to bet big currently. But I certainly don't see much reason to start predicting doomsday scenarios. Infact, for all those eager to exit any major positions, I'd be very happy to take some big bites at 600-650 
Discl - Invested
PS:
1)For the calculations, please allow for 5-10% error as I have calculated some of it mentally
2) I don't have much knowledge on accounting, so if you're one of those who believe it's books are cooked - most happy to listen to that argument with evidence
Hello friends,
Indocount has reported a stellar set of numbers.
Revenues up 21% YoY
Ebitda & EPS up 55% YoY.
Debt down to 217cr from 267cr YoY.
Company is migrating to higher value added products like Bed linens.
Company is focusing on increasing client base.
Global home textiles market is expected to grow 15% over next 2-3 years.
Mission of the company is to become Debt free.
No shares are pledged now.
475cr expansion over 2 phases.
*Phase 1 expansion is 175crs which will be completed by December 2016.
*Phase 2 expansion is approx 300crs which will be completed over 3 years (very nice to know).
Plans to enter domestic industry too.
Conclusion - Very measured approach. Co is in a sweet spot at the moment, lets hold it.
Neil
I agree @jitenp. And thats exactly my point. Your price point was great, congrats for that but current price point to invest, in my view its quite high given the reasoning in my previous post.
Hi Sunil,
As per the management commentary, the debt is for funding the working capital needs of the company. As they do not want to touch the long term investment that they have made in debt mutual funds, they are borrowing money to fund the same. Whether that is the the most optimal approach or not is debatable. However, personally I do not see that as much of material concern as the financing cost is quite less compared to overall profitability levels.
Management Interview on CNBC
Mr Khorakiwala today in interview with ET Now mentioned that Wockhardt's US business went down from $500M to $150M due to US FDA ban on Waluj and Chikhalthana plant. He also mentioned that Wockhardt has completed all the pending action items like responding to minor issues raised by US FDA during their plant visits. So now it is only question of time when they should receive approvals.
So this makes a perfect case of " Low Risk, High Uncertainty Business" as defined by acclaimed investor Mohnish Pabrai in his book "The Dhandho Investor"
I am adding more on every dip.
Please see the complete interview in the video in the attached link -
Disc - invested for more than one year and intend to hold for long term
That sounds good. Is the call limited or could others take part - even in listening mode - as well? If yes, do share details.
Areas I might seek clarifications are
U.S sales : what kind of volumes and margins and by when? Implications of this on sales to existing clients. If not from client side at least from production constraints side.
TPP
What is their sense of when member countries will ratify and adopt it? What concrete steps is India taking for regional agreements to go around this? Any plans of acquisitions in Vietnam? How long does it take to ramp up capacity to plant optimal scale? Do they prefer greenfield route or acquisition route? Why? How will they respond to glut in India of yarn and fabric once yarn forward principle is applied?
What are growth plans in India? In terms of volumes, values, margins and time frames.
What are growth plans in Europe and Japan in terms of volumes, values, margins and timeframes.
How do they plan to build in house brand building capabilities?