I think valuation is very subjective matter. But to add some points for you to take better decision:

• Currently Vinati is trading at 16x 17E fwd PE multiple. If you read the reports which forms this consensus, you will find that they do not account for 200 Cr capex revenue which will start flowing from a year now.

• The company has excellent return ratios around 30% RoE and 23% RoCE, just look around in the market and see how are businesses with similar return ratios trading >>> look at La Opala, Mayur Uniquoters, Kajaria, Wim Plast etc.

• You find all the points which Graham or Fisher mentiones in their books >>> Dull B2B businessess >> Niche in their business >> Economies of scale >> Well-known among customers >> Expanding market share >> Oligopoly market >> Market leader with competitive advantage >> Good management etc.

• You can even compare the return ratios and multiples of its peers who are fairly discovered and having decent coverage like Atul limited and Aarti industries >> they trade at same multiples despite slightly moderate return ratios

• The only negative currenly I see is the stock is less discovered, less tracked by brokers and there is lack of communication from management in terms of disclosure, concalls etc

Happy to have your views on above points.

Disclosure: Invested and my views may be biased

Milk forms high part of expenses for Virat Crane as it's the main raw material (~ 80% of expenses). So, a sense of how milk prices would pan out in near future is important to evaluate the company's bottomline growth.

Milk price in India:

When compared to last year, milk prices are low and are expected to be low in 2015 and 2016 as per media reports (sources below).

Global milk price
The global milk prices play a key role on the Indian milk prices because -> Already we are priced at least 30% above global prices and If there is any further price increase in India, this will lead to import of milk and/or usage of milk powder. So, organised milk prices will remain low in India for the foreseeable future. USDA predicts increasing global milk output for 2015 and 2016.

Milk forms about 8% of Indian monthly per-capita expenditure and so has a high impact on inflation figures, second only to cereals. So, I think for food security, a sustainable low milk prices should augur well and as per RBI's projection overall inflation should be under 5%. However, I also think that high demand for milk might keep prices in a range as the domestic consumption increases as the per capita income for Indians go up.

Now, as milk prices fall, I think the milk product companies may also have to reduce their price of curd, ghee etc. I do no think the companies pass on the full benefit and thus better margins and bottomline.

Sources:

http://www.business-standard.com/article/companies/milk-price-hike-unviable-for-now-amul-115040700846_1.html

http://indianexpress.com/article/business/commodities/crashing-milk-prices-worldwide-is-latest-farmer-worry-at-home/

http://www.dairyherd.com/news/markets/wasde-2015-milk-production-forecast-raised-2015-2016-price-projections-cut

Syngene has appointed a couple of senior ppl. Pretty impressive profiles

Dr Thomas Privette as Head of Business Development. He has PhD from East Carolina and MBA from Wharton, 20 yrs experience in big pharma- GSK and Pfizer. His last role was in Covance.
Dr Bisachhi as Head of Discovery Chemistry. He has a PhD from UCLA and post doc from Stanford. Ex- Astra and BMS.

Great results from Syngene.
http://corporates.bseindia.com/xml-data/corpfiling/AttachLive/196A4865_E4EE_4EAD_9BF6_259895AF394F_191354.pdf

Revenues up 28% (compared to Q2FY16)
PAT up 31%
EBITDA margins at 33%

"Our recent capacity expansion in manufacturing services has helped us keep pace with increasing requirements of our clients."

"Growth was specially strong in development and manufacturing services. We had added capacities in the development and manufacturing vertical over the past 2 fiscals, which helped fuel this growth"

"We continue to plan investments towards capacity additions and capability enhancements in both discovery and development space. Key ongoing investments in these areas include a new research center, a formulations center and a large molecules manufacturing unit at our current site. In terms of new capabilities, we are currently investing in a viral testing facility and an oligonucleotide pilot plant."

Yesterday, NCL industries has reported further release of pledged shares to the exchanges.