NCL has been a high conviction bet for me from RS. 70 levels. A couple of things that are worth noting are
1. it does not sell to govt/contractors but sells on cash and carry/low credit period in retail
2. NCL's plants are amongst the closest to amaravathi the new capital city near vijayawada
3. for a near 25 % increase in sales in FY15, receivables have inched up only about 2%.
4. cash flows are very good - Rs. 55 Cr. of OCF - led by improvement in all effficiency parameters - increase in current liabilities, decrease in inventories,OPM. If the company can maintain these going forward, this can be a 2-3 x on the back of both PE re-rating and rapid EPS expansion.
Posts in category Value Pickr
NCL Industries – Resumption of growth? (02-10-2015)
Alembic & Alembic Pharma (02-10-2015)
Given that Alembic has captured roughly same market share for Abilify as done by Torrent (as per various reports) and if we use same back of envelope calculation as used for calculating the revenue for Torrent from Abilify, then it will translate into roughly 200 MUSD sale coming from Abilify in FY16 for Alembic.
Assuming a 60-40 split with their partner, it will translate into 120 MUSD contribution in topline from Abilify to Alembic for FY!6 and a roughly 80 MUSD to bottom-line (based on blockbuster Q1 result of torrent and in case of Alembic they are sourcing API inhouse as per conf call). This contribution from Abilify in itself will be almost twice the PAT which Alembic earned for FY15 and on top of that we have their base business, contribution from Celebrex (which is also a big molecule) and guidance from company of 7-9 launches every year in US.
My guess estimate is that the FY16 EPS will be 40+ but that includes one off from abilify but they have robust product pipeline as highlighted by Ankit and should be able to sustain decent CAGR on base business as well.
All these are rough calculation and Q2 results will give how much we are correct.
Thoughts welcome.
SYMPHONY COMFORT — ? inverted head and shoulders (02-10-2015)
Hello everybody!
My name is Amit Sharma. I couldn't locate any "Introduce Yourself" page on this forum. I have been a member of this forum for long but was never active. I will try to be active from now on.
I met Mr. Achal Bakeri, Chairman, Symphony Coolers in Ahmedabad. We had some conversation on discussions related to value creation in the business of Symphony Limited.
Mr. Achal Bakeri stated that the value creation in a business happens when the market capitalization of the business grows/increases. I didn't find this statement rational. In my opinion, the value creation in a business happens when the business is able to generate free cash flows for the shareholders of the Company, or RoCE improves and the business is able to create entry barriers.
If it comes to analysing Symphony Limited, they are a negative working capital business. They are asset light, no debt, good Profit margins and RoCE. The Company has design copyrights and they have a good design team and they come up regularly with innovative designs creating entry barriers. This way the business is creating value for the shareholders.
I just couldn't understand as to why he was placing much emphasis on market capitalisation rather than these elements. In my opinion, market capitalisation is the work of the market and it goes up and down in a moment. But the strengths of the business don't wither out easily and they result in healthy free cash flows for the shareholders of the Company. For me, the value creation is these strengths of the business.
May be, he got influenced by the crazy valuations of the start-ups...!!!
Ashok Alco-Chem (02-10-2015)
Hi Ayush,
Did you attend the agm? If yes, can you please share some information.
Thanks
Krishna
Alembic & Alembic Pharma (02-10-2015)
Hi Rohit,
We should also look at the company from forward valuation perspective and not just trailing. On trailing basis, yes it does look expensive but on forward basis it might not . I think Q2 results will give us a fair idea about how the earnings will look like in FY16. For FY17, it all depends on the product approvals and off course how the competition pans out in Abilify. I am banking on two things in Alembic:
- Their superior pipeline and R&D: I think the kind of R&D spent company has been doing is really commendable given its size.
- Establishment of front end in US markets: I think we can clearly see how Torrent has been able to leverage more from Abilify as compared to Alembic as it doesnt share its profits with the partners. Front end gives you more leverage on supply chain, pricing etc. They have hired three very experienced pharma executives for the US markets. Lets see how the execution is on that front.
NCL Industries – Resumption of growth? (02-10-2015)
Sagar Cements has other income of 350 odd crores in Sep 14 quarter. Do factor that in.
Accelya Kale Solutions-Niche & Sticky Business (02-10-2015)
Hi,
Anyone attended the AGM concluded on September 30?
Please do share any notes on the same.
Thanks
Alembic & Alembic Pharma (02-10-2015)
Hi Ankit,
Yes, thanks for the awesome compilation. Its the most comprehensive work I have come across. I saw the file only few days back. To me Alembic pipeline looks to be the strongest among companies of this size, maybe better than many bigger companies too. I have made a mind map of Alembic pharma. Will upload it once I am done.
The valuations on trailing basis (46x) appear high compared to the fair PE band of 25-30 assigned to Alembic in the VP public PF thread earlier. Assuming a 30% growth for 1 yr, it comes to 35 times 1 year forward PE. This is definitely pricey but there is a good visibility for next 3 years.
Does anyone have an idea about the bioequivalence activities of Alembic? As per my understanding, one success here can be a blockbuster.
MPS Ltd (02-10-2015)
From current rate I see limited downsides for MPS so opportunity cost purely depends on what other opportunities you have at this point of time because I see scope for good appreciation even from here on for MPS because there seem to be many ammunitions still left in company's arsenal.....key monitorable is how well company uses the cash it has whenever it does......even if management can generate less than half the returns from acquired company than it generated in case of Macmillan then wealth creation for investors could be significant which even at current corrected rates many high quality management mid & small caps might not be capable of delivering.......company should not burn cash in any way by making high loss making acquisitions or by buying hgh debt......if at FY18 dreamed scale of management, a 25 % + EBITDA margin is maintained consistently with healthy balance sheet then current valuations will look extremely appealing for not only long but medium term investors too.
Rgds.
Discl - Invested in MPS
Note - This is not a buy/sell/hold recommendation and is only part of general discussion.
US based NRI’s – How do you guys invest in equity now? (02-10-2015)
FATCA issues can be avoided by maintaining proper foreign allocation. Tax questions in india were based on the source of income for my parents..
I am more looking to get info on how to open a demat account with NRO linked account in india so that i can have shares on my name for long term and is repatriable later. Apparently, most of the brocker firms not entertaining US/canada based NRI's. US based NRI's please help me with your comments.
Please msg me privately or @ bijoy.finance@gmail.com if you want things to keep personal. thanks.