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Bajaj Finance
Capital First
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PI Industries
SRF
Balkrishna Ind
Hexaware
Supreme Industries
Jubilant Food
Dear All
Requesting your views on this Portfolio for further Study
Bajaj Finance
Capital First
Repco Home
SKS Mirco
PI Industries
SRF
Balkrishna Ind
Hexaware
Supreme Industries
Jubilant Food
The selloff in global markets, triggered by fears of a Chinese ‘hard landing’, poses a severe risk to India’s primary market, which is recuperating after four years of hiatus.
Merchant bankers and primary market observers said that grey market premiums saw a sharp fall on Tuesday and were reflective of the weakness in secondary markets. With the meltdown in in global markets on Monday and the prevailing uncertainty, retail investors have turned cautious and their absence may impact performance of forthcoming IPOs as it did with the Indian Oil Corp (IOC) offering on Monday.
Sources told FE the grey market premium of Power Mech Projects declined more than 60% ahead of its listing on Wednesday. The shares of Hyderabad-based power infrastructure company were quoting at a premium of R50-55 a share against Rs 150 levels late last week. The company had set a price band of Rs 615-640 for its IPO.
Navkar Corporation’s premium saw similar declines. The premium narrowed to Rs 20-25 apiece against Rs 55-60 per share last Friday. Shree Pushkar Chemicals and Pennar Engineered Building Systems (PEBS) lost the premium valuation, sources added.
Grey market is a pseudo over-the-counter market where IPO shares are bought and sold before a company officially lists on the stock exchange. It gives a broad indication of the appetite for a public issue.
Sandeep Nayak, CEO, Broking and ED, Centrum Capital, said retail investors’ participation is a function of sentiment and market behaviour and that they would not actively invest if the markets turn volatile. “We have witnessed dips in retail participation whenever markets turned volatile. For example, retail participation in June and July was down as Indian markets turned volatile,” Nayak said.
IOC’s secondary market offering by the government on Monday received a tepid response from retail investors even as they were entitled to a 5% special discount. While the offer for sale (OFS) managed to get fully subscribed, the retail book of the OFS was subscribed only 0.18 times.
The caution among retail investors comes at a crucial time as five companies — Navkar Corporation, PEBS Pennar, Prabhat Dairy, Shree Pushkar Chemicals and Fertilisers, and Sadbhav Infrastructure Project — have lined their public issues during the next 10 days. Together, these companies have the potential to raise close to Rs 2,000 crore. Ten companies have tapped primary markets so far this calendar and raised Rs 5,483.41 crore, data from Prime Database showed.
More than 60 companies scrapped their IPO plans between 2011 and early 2014 due to unfavorable market conditions, halting plans of Indian companies to raise more than Rs 65,000 crore through primary markets.
A section of the industry, however, said that the long-term state of the primary markets remains intact as India anticipates a bull-run in equity markets. Satyen Shah, EVP, Edelweiss Financial Services, said primary markets continue to be in a buoyant mood and subscriptions would depend on the nature of the issue.
“Performance of an IPO depends on the individual company, its track record and whether the pricing of the issue would leave something for the investors on the table or not,” Shah said on the sidelines of an IPO conference on Monday.
While equity markets were hammered on Monday amid a global selloff, mutual fund houses continued to see inflows. Asset managers are encouraging investors to put their money in balanced funds — and not pure equity funds — as markets are likely to remain unsettled over the next few months. On Monday, the Sensex plunged the most since 2009, closing at 25,741.56, down 1,624.51 points, or 5.94%.
Dinesh Kumar Khara, MD & CEO, SBI Asset Management company (AMC), said: “Despite such a sharp correction, our fund house didn’t see redemptions. In fact, we got net inflows on Monday. It shows retail investors are pumping in money whenever there is a correction in the equity market.” Tuesday saw Indian markets bounce back as they closed with gains of over 1%. Mutual fund participants are confident of seeing net inflows even in August.
In the last 15 months, equity funds have seen net inflows.
Data from the Association of Mutual Funds in India (Amfi) show MF inflows at over Rs 32,000 crore in this fiscal so far.
“I think Indian investors have understood that there was nothing wrong with the fundamentals and the fall in equity markets was mainly due to the slowdown in China. We believe retail investors will continue to put money in equity markets through mutual funds,” said Khara. Mutual fund players say flows are not only coming in from the top-15 cities, but also beyond, which is a significant success for the industry.
AUMs from beyond-15 locations grew from R1.82 lakh crore in July 2014 to Rs 2.04 lakh crore in July 2015, show data.
A marketing officer from a leading fund house said: “It was quite surprising that a few of the top fund houses got net inflows on equity side. With weak China markets and expectations of hike in interest rates in US markets, volatility will continue in Indian markets. Given such a situation, we are cautioning investors to go for balanced funds at this point of time and not go aggressively into equity funds.”
I think its not necessarily that dividend yield stocks cannot build capital. Obviously you cant compare them to the high growth companies but to people with a preference for lower volatility a carefully selected portfolio with decent dividend yield can give good income and also capital appreciation in future. Few things which one should consider while selecting such a portfolio is only include companies where:
a) Dividend payments can be sustained in the long term (think non cyclical business)
b) Scope for dividend increases in the future and hence avoiding companies with unsustainable payout ratios
I think the call is highly personal. If one is in capital building stage, it doesn't make sense to hide in div. yield stocks. If one has already built a nest egg larger than required and is feeling uneasy, div. yielding stocks might be the right choice. Most people would NOT have built a nest egg larger than required.
At the cost of being repetitive, let me elaborate since fear does terrible things to our rationality. I see 2 main risks for all the above stocks:
Opportunity cost - "Time is the friend of the good business, and enemy of the mediocre business".
I think the main reason people might be looking to hide in div. yield stocks right now is to get less damage in a bear market and convert the capital to high growth stocks when the dust settles. But cash (read as cash/bank FD) is the best place to hide for such a purpose (I am not advising to liquidate one's portfolio). It is certainly true that high yielding stocks won't fall as much as small/mid cap or even some large cap stocks in a bear market. But that is just relative - in absolute terms 20-30% falls are nothing. And stocks can quote at less than cash on books (which should also be discounted by 16% for DDT). Though only for a short time, but exactly when your 30% compounding machines are available at 15-20 PE. Even if the yield is 2-3% more than FD rate, that gives 10% over a 3 year period. And like I said before, one incurs a huge opportunity cost in holding div. yielding stocks for a long time.
Cyclicality - Most of the commodity stocks can keep going down like in a bottomless pit. Porinju is smart and might get it right, but it is VERY difficult for an average valuepickr to make money from such stocks even once in a row - because you need to get 2 calls right - buy and sell. Even if Porinju is buying right and sells right, we don't know when he will sell. Btw, NALCO is 25% down since he tweeted about it on Aug 10. And unlike most of the secular growth stories discussed here, 5-10x moves on either side over a cycle are common for cyclicals. We don't know whether Porinju is averaging down, or whether we have nerves like him. No one (including in the China's finance ministry or LME) knows when we reach a bottom. With the China export engine coming to a stop, there is no bottom in sight - I am not saying this time is different, I am just saying that this time things could be amplified further.
For PSU stocks, there is a third risk, namely govt intervention. Disinvestment might keep prices at bay. From the div. yield perspective, its nice that govt. is arm-twisting companies into paying high div. Further, NALCO and NMDC have 4.6kcr and 18kcr of cash. But all this could backfire due to the law of unintended consequences if the co. decides to start using its cash rather than pay dividend and ends up di-worsifying.
For Vedanta, I don't see any other risks (mainly because I never thought of investing in it), but I see one thing for CERTAIN. They WILL fleece minority investors. I am saying this not because I have a crystal ball, but because I have looked at the past track record.
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