Private banks have adequate capital buffers to grow comfortably

Our last year’s Diwali picks have done well, with some of our ideas, such as L&T (+58%), IDFC First (+48%), Lemon Tree (+38%) generating superior returns compared to Nifty’s gain of 10%

Going forward, we expect markets to be volatile till the 1st half of 2024 even as the outcome of state and Central elections will be watched closely as would be the repercussions of the two geo political events. Though the local fund inflows have remained robust, we would need resumption of FPI flows once the global risk appetite revives. We continue to favour domestic oriented businesses and favour opportunities in the sectors like Materials, Pharma, Oil & gas, Small Finance banks, Petrochemicals, consumption, Power EPC and restructuring plays for the next year. With a focus on these themes, here are our 10 picks for Samvat 2080. These stocks have robust fundamentals and some margin of safety in their valuation to offer superior returns to investors.

We continue to see reasonable opportunities across the market spectrum with key filter being quality. We continue to advise investors to utilise equities as a key asset class for long term wealth generation by investing in quality companies with strong earnings growth and visibility, stable cash flows, RoE and RoCE.

Our Last year’s Performance. Astounding Returns of 28% since last Diwali vs the Nifty 50 return of 9%. Target achieved for 7 calls out of 9 calls with superior margins. However, status is open from the long-term perspective.

The Indian economy stands at a sweet spot of growth and remains the land of stability against the backdrop of a volatile global economy. We continue to believe in its long-term growth story, supported by the emerging favourable structure as increasing Capex enables banks to improve credit growth. Strong earnings trajectory continues in the NIFTY 50 universe.

Nifty Last Close – 19527 “Entered into bearish territory”

While Nifty-50 is at a new high and is creating a lot of buzz, the fact remains that on a two-year basis, it stands nearly flat (just up 4% from Oct’21 high); whereas its aggregate FY22/FY23 earnings are up ~38%/10% and that for MOFSL Universe are up 39%/10% over the same period.

Keeping these latest developments in view, we have made one change to our Top Picks recommendations. This includes booking profit in Dalmia Bharat and adding Rites Ltd. (Railways Infra consultancy). Our modifications reflect the changing market style and shift towards superior-quality and growth-oriented stocks

Historically Nifty has never risen for four series on the trot since June 2017 and therefore history suggests, there is a higher possibility of profit booking in the July series after three series of consecutive gains. Therefore our advise is to book profits in long positions on any rally towards 19200-19500 levels to re-enter at lower levels