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Discussion in 'Stock Advisory Services' started by Red Devil Manan, Jan 11, 2019.

  1. Red Devil Manan

    Red Devil Manan Member

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    Let today be a lesson for all DUMB MONEY.The date is 23/5/2019.

    The market is smarter than all of us and will always be. To all those who sat on the sidelines waited for the election results and bought today, look what happened.

    The smart money got out. From 300 points, to nothing, the Nifty corrected. That is why you must go against the crowd. The crowd is entering the market, this is the time to book some profits if you have some.

    You cannot time the market, it is for fools. I am bullish on the market for long term always, i believe our country will grow, but let us see for a week.

    Cmon, now if the best news of Modi coming back to power will not move markets, then what will, you want him to start giving out gold coins? Buy the rumor, sell the news.

    If markets correct, good companies with strong earnings growth can be accumulated.
     
  2. Red Devil Manan

    Red Devil Manan Member

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  3. Red Devil Manan

    Red Devil Manan Member

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    Hello people,

    Fear is more powerful than greed and there is no greed still. People are scared and now people are starting to say that the risk reward is not in their favor right now so they wont buy. Proper bull market thought process.

    Till the time they are scared and market goes up, we can all be buyers. The day they are not scared to buy, sell it all. Greed and fear always rules markets and i still smell fear on the street.
     
  4. Red Devil Manan

    Red Devil Manan Member

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  5. Red Devil Manan

    Red Devil Manan Member

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    Hello people,

    I do hope this finds all people who read this page with good faith. Believe me when i tell you this, however good a company is, do not put your money in it if there is corporate governance issues. Let me tell you. I keep saying investing is emotional intelligence rather than cognitive intelligence.

    What happens is risks can be quantified. Valuation can be quantified, earnings growth can be quantified, but you cannot quantify fear and greed. People can act more irrational than you can remain rational.

    What happens with corporate governance is by not able to quanitfy it, people act really irrational. So they just end up selling it and all your hard earned effort goes down the drain.

    See YES BANK, DHFL,manpasand.

    I bet a lot of retailers have bought yes bank. Trust me we do not know what is in the books, they can go under if they do not get funding. Now historically in India no bank has failed and if they are bailed they are done by the government. Now i do not think it will happen to yes bank that the governemtn will want to bail them.

    Focus on good companies with good management,even though you make money , make less money its fine, just do not loose too much money over time.
     
  6. Red Devil Manan

    Red Devil Manan Member

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  7. Red Devil Manan

    Red Devil Manan Member

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  8. Red Devil Manan

    Red Devil Manan Member

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    Hi there,

    Hope you guys are doing good. I just checked my holdings, to be honest my portfolio is just moving 10% and -15% down. I am invested in a mid and small names to be honest. I think this with everyone. I know a few will get frustrated. The markets are in a cleaning mode now.

    People are so fearful that they are punishing everything. The slightest sign of debts and the company is getting punished. All kachra getting cleaned. This is the sign of a bull market beginning to be honest. The previous sector leaders are being taken out and new boys will come.

    So if you get companies you like, buy them, believe me do not get scared.The full market is fearful right now, go and buy. This is the time, you will literally thank yourself in the future. I know people will say are you mad, the market is bad and all but this is the time you pump it. Buy good quality companies and let it be. They can under perform for a year but the cycle always turns.

    People cannot stay sad all the time, nor they can stay happy all the time as well. Life is mean reverting, so are people and markets.

    US markets is causing our markets not to perform. The money is so hot there, yesterday trump just tweeted one thing and the market went 1.5% up on a damn tweet? Are you f******* serious? That is something i do not believe can sustain on a bloody tweet. Either Trump is in the market making his friends rich, or people are just chasing hot money. Either case if i was a global fund manager, i would reduce my exposure to US markets and focus on emerging markets.

    OUR markets will take time for sure. Its not going to come back that quickly, but this is the time to pick names you like. Pick good counters and hold them.
     
  9. Red Devil Manan

    Red Devil Manan Member

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  10. Red Devil Manan

    Red Devil Manan Member

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    Good morning,

    Intermarket analysis, shows me a few risks, which i would like to address. With the dollar becoming a tad bit weaker, this should increase commodity prices making it an inflationary environment. I think we can see this in gold right now. But there is a contradictory statement that gold is used as safe guard against inflation, so markets seem to pricing this in.

    The data is supportive with the interest rates being reduced, making the flow of funds flow out of US markets into emerging markets.

    Our bond yields have come down in India as well and if this sustains we can see a good run.

    I am expecting markets to sustain till the budget, could possibly correct also on the NIFTY( 300-500 POINTS, A MINOR CORRECTION, I CAN BE COMPLETELY WRONG HERE). But this will be a dip to buy if you get some nice companies.

    The rate cut should create a good gush of inflow into emerging markets. So more bullish than bearish in the long run till now.

    Hope you have a good day.

    Cheers.
     
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