Discussion in 'Ask A Query About Your Stock Picks And Portfolio' started by bholu, Jan 22, 2016.
Well two benefits/positives doesnt mean double benefits/positives.
Well I do not agree. The articles maybe riddled with errors but I was accurate in presenting the information that is relevant and as you yourself wrote that this as important change. I still cannot see where I was wrong. And you are repeatedly writing that I misinterpreted and misrepresented. Please back your arguments with facts.
I wrote about RBI's norm on Tier I capital and how it eases capital raising requirements. Also how the recovery of NPAs will be a "double positive for banks" and improve their profits.
Both the conclusions were correct, regardless of the information you present here to prove otherwise.
I didnt seek your agreement. And what you misinterpreted and misrepresented is all already stated. If you wish to not see it then like i have already once before told you : i am not into repeating myself.
Love the convinient shift to 'conclusions' being correct now though. Most retail investors would miss this subtle shift. Anyways My time is far to precious to waste it proving anything to ppl in here.
I know you do not seek my agreement and you are entitled to your view.There is no shift in my information, and in my analysis.
What I wrote is for everybody to see and I will reiterate it in my future posts.The kind of effort you put in to prove me wrong and the irrelevant yet detailed information you put in this post completely contradicts the statement that "my time is too precious to be wasted here."
Oh btw basel and capital adequacy norms and prescriptions come quite naturally to me. Doesnt eat up much of my time. Forgot to tell you this. Am not suprised at you and almost all in here finding my detailed post irrelevant. What to do there is always a shortage of qualified people. Thankfully there arent bankers in here.
And what i said was ' my time is far to precious to waste it proving anything to ppl in here'
Quite different from you twisting it to " my time is too precious to be wasted here"
But maybe you cant see the difference. Just like real estate means the same as revaluation reserve to you. Or maybe all you know is how to subtly change stances and content.
Decide what you want to say. I never change my stances and content. You have changed them not me. I will continue to write what I understand is accurate and is correct.
Regarding qualifications I really have no objections. If Basel norms, and banking regulations come naturally to you then you are certainly more qualified than me. Also the information you have presented here is for everybody to see so you do not need to prove anything to people here. They will read what you have write and if they find it useful they will act accordingly.
Oh please do keep writing basis your understanding - which usually will be understanding of press reports. Anyways you rightly say that your posts covering stock recos and art of investing are meant for people who are either unlucky or bad stock selectors. A class which I stay away from.
Well your comments on this post certainly do not suggest so. But they are always appreciated. Any criticism which helps to gain insights is valuable.
And there have to be some unsuccessful and unlucky people as well. If not then who would read my posts.
So long as you dont boast off this gained knowledge elsewhere.
Dear Bholu I always read and appreciate your posts but even with good GK it is better not to go for long argument atleast in banking technicalities with a expert Banker .
I agree with you. I do not have the technical understanding of RBI rules.
I apologize for keeping the post dormant for some time. Due to some personal issues I could not contribute to this post. Meanwhile if you were following the post you may have noticed that Darth and Kharb has severely criticized my views on banking stocks. A part of this criticism is justified as I lack the technical understanding of the banking sector. My information is based on news media (though not entirely) and hence I may end up quoting erroneous sources and unknowingly present incorrect information. However I always try to present the fundamentals as objectively as possible and also present both the strengths and weaknesses of the stock. Also I noticed that most of the stocks I have presented have done well hence I am glad if I could be of help. Also I must reiterate that criticism should always be taken positively and should not be a deterrent. As of my friends told me "All along your life you have to meet difficult people and learn how to deal with them. "
Yet I would request all of you to do your own analysis before making any investing decisions. Belated wishes of Ram Navami. I would soon add new stocks to the list.
Dear Bholu,I never critcised your or any body positive views on Pvt banking stocks.I just suggested to consider views of Dear Darth ( he being a banker I guess )on technicalties of banking business,I also don't know working of banking in detail .Please read my post again, if still you get the same impression ,uncondtional apology for that.I hold you in high esteem.In fact I have mentioned many times that large part of my portfolio ,I hold many private banks like HDFC bank,Axis bank,Kotak bank,ICICI bank,Indusind bank,Yes bank,DCB bank ,Fedral bank and IDFC bank . Except IDFC bank I have made good money in other banks and I am also hopeful about IDFC bank in long term.
Good approach and attitude to keep
"The trouble with most of us is that we would rather be ruined by praise than saved by criticism."
Norman Vincent Peale
I am recapping the stocks I suggested for benefit of all.
Exide industries - Continue Hold. Good operational performance expected. I think Exide can really be a good performer after a modest run.
SBI - Continue Hold. SBI will gain from RBI's rule to allow real estate as Tier I capital. SBI has 20k crores worth of real estate and the RBI rule will add 9k crores to its Tier I Capital. This is big ease in terms of raising capital from the market to meed Basel Norms. Also the tackling of NPA issue seems to be bearing some fruits going by the developments in Kingfisher, JP, and Essar Steel Case. Lets hope ultimately it does add to the bottomline. Any up gradation or settlement of NPA accounts will be "double positive" for the profits of the banks. First they will recover money and secondly they will reduce provisions.
Since I wrote the last piece on SBI the the RBI has further allowed some large corporate houses to be removed from the "NPA list". This list was prepared and banks were asked to make provisions for the loans given to these corporate houses even if their loans were technically not NPAs (means they were being serviced). The media reports indicate that large leveraged groups like JP, Essar, etc. figure in the list.
ICICI Bank - I would recommend a sell. If you have a long term view (> 1 year) I would suggest other stocks. I feel SBI offers better value at this point. Also ICICI Bank will continue to disappoint on the operational front.Unless there is a change or improvement in management quality there is no way ICICI Bank will outperform its peers. I fear ICICI Bank may slip further as its competitors continue with their expansion.
The management of ICICI Bank really needs to pull up its socks. Having a good brand recall and geographical presence is not good enough. Banking is a service industry where the quality of service is important.The fate of PSBs is well known to us. But PSBs have the govt. to back them with pretty deep pockets. ICICI Bank cannot afford this luxury. Anyways an exit is what I would recommend especially if you have a view of more than a year.
I will end my review of ICICI Bank and add new stocks from the finance sector.
PFC - Continue hold. The bottlenecks in the power sector are getting reduced. Also the UDAY scheme is getting implemented well.
GE Shipping - Continue Hold. Another good quarter expected.
Selan Exploration - Continue Hold. Valuations still inexpensive. Crude prices are off their lows. Efforts on between producers to cut production.
Cyient- Valuations cheap. Stock has appreciated by almost 25%. Results were ordinary but profile still good. I really cannot think of a better stock in the mid-cap space which are cheap.
NMDC - A dividend of 10% and good capital appreciation since presentation. Iron ore prices have also increased indicating positives intact.
Tata Global Beverages- Hold. Tata Steel UK is being sold off indicating that the group is really showing an serious intent to restructure, cut unproductive assets and improve profitability. Tata Global could really do well from here.
City Union Bank - Hold. Positives intact.
Tech Mahindra - Inexpensive stock with strong management. Continue hold. Further upside expected. All companies are indicating that FY17 will be a better year.
Ramco Cements - The 5, 10, 15 year stock. Continued strength displayed. Might be the multibagger. The stock is now showing an up move indicating that my conviction is correct. There is an interesting story behind the discovery of this stock which I will share after 5 years.
Orient Cement - Positives intact. Cement prices and demand on upside and so is demand. .
Prestige Estates Projects - Exit. Though positives at company level are intact weakening real estate demand and new regulatory bill are causes of concern. Better to deploy capital elsewhere given the risks. I will end my review of this stock here. Given the profile of this stock I had high hopes but the macros are too challenging.
BHEL- Results were ordinary but order inflow was high. The fundamentals of the stock are really good and the company is strongest in its sector. I think the stock has gain around 25% since I put it on the list and further upside is also possible.
Engineers India - Niche stock. Inexpensive valuations. Hold
Karnataka Bank - Hold. Value stock with good fundamentals.
Lupin - Watch. Full clarity on the USFDA issue is yet to emerge though management commentary is reassuring. Stock is expensive but pharma sector has commanded premium and Lupin has been at top of the league. Consolidated numbers following the spate of acquisitions and management guidance will be key in the following results.
I will add new stocks to the list including micro-cap stocks and small stocks.
I wish that all investors find success in this market. I reiterate that I am undeterred by criticism. People like Darth or Kharb and their objectives of proving me wrong are simply not worth my time or theirs (as they themselves have acknowledged). They can write anything they want. In fact any body can write anything. Technical knowledge or understanding of banking rules really does not change the reality for me or for anybody. Any knowledge is worthless if it cannot create an impact. I know what drives their actions and hence I can not allow their criticism to stop me.
I would encourage all of you to help people in need as you may not get a chance again.
Hope for your sake somebody cares about that you remain undetterred by criticism. Though personally am happy at this for as you might not know criticism is necessary for it calls Attention to an unhealthy state of things.
And what a strange coincidence that I put to use the below quote twice in one day ( so sorry @kharb saheb)
"The greatest enemy of knowledge is not ignorance; it is the illusion of knowledge"
Keep living in such illusion of yours.
Also keep posting for I do get tickled reading what you mention abt me.
I am presenting my next stock pick. A micro-cap company by numbers Panasonic Energy India is really a high profile company. It is the Indian subsidiary of Panasonic Corporation of Japan engaged in making dry cell batteries. With changes in lifestyle, dry cell battery usage in India is likely to increase substantially as more and more electronic gadgets are being used. With a country of more than 1.2 billion there is vast market in India which should lead to a very healthy demand for the company. Hence this company is in a promising sector.
At the company level the fundamentals are very good. It is a zero debt company trading at around 15 times forward earnings. Since the last few years the company has made efforts to improve brand visibility by bringing all products under the Panasonic brand (from erstwhile Novino brand). It has increased its capacity by 25% (unconfirmed reports) and is focusing on improving sales and distribution network. The efforts of the company have borne results on its financials with net profit increasing by almost 100% year on year in 2014-15. The current year till date EPS is almost Rs. 17.
Hence we see that PEL scores very well on all counts. It has strong financials, backed by promoters with both strong financial and technical capabilities and making a product which has a vast and expanding market. PEL can really provide great returns. However in my opinion you would have to hold the stock for a couple of years to see the fullest benefits. At these levels though downside is limited and purchase seems risk free.
The next stock I pick really needs no write up or explanation. You just have to buy it (but do your research before doing so).
Infosys Technologies has been of the best wealth creators in the history of Indian stock market. Vishal Sikka's vision of aiming for $ 20 billion revenues by 2020 (from 9.5 billion now) with 30 percent margins is ambitious. However even if Infosys falls short of that mark the turnaround is clearly visible and it is likely to do very well over the next 5 years.
Add to that more than $ 5 billion in cash reserves (which will only increase) and revised dividend payout of 40% PAT Infosys can provide very decent rewards to its investors. I probably should have started this thread with Infosys but better late than never. If there is one stock which every retail investor should look to buy for a 5 year view Infosys is that stock.
panasonic is a good lt pick.
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