My portfolio (beginner, please review)

Discussion in 'Ask A Query About Your Stock Picks And Portfolio' started by 7cr, Jul 16, 2017.

  1. 7cr

    7cr New Member

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    Sundaram Finance ~1,00,000 @ 1490 (demerger, strong company, conservative mgmt, brand, access to cheap capital)

    Epc industrie (irrigation) ~ 1,00,000 @ 199 (M&M mgmt, irrigation/agro play)

    NESCO ~ 1,00,000 @ 2450 (Fantastic business, debt-free, robust plan to monetise asset, undervalued)

    KCP ltd ~ 1,00,00 @ 107 (proxy play on Real estate, Amaravati development, Sugar entity in vietnam, undervalued)

    Agro Tech foods ~ 1,00,000 @ 498 (Undervalued, inflection point, good mgmt, India's next FMCG brand)

    Smartlink network systems ~ 1,00,000 @99 (cash bargain, Experienced mgmt, digital india, make in India, re-entry into structured cabling)

    Wonderla holidays (fantastic model, moat, mgmt quality, debt free expansion post chennai, operating leverage, revenue mix growth) will be punished in short term by market so will add on dips ~1,00,000

    Pokarna ~ 1,00,000 @ 1370 (mgmt quality, IKEA supplier, decreasing debt, cutting edge tech, entry barrier, growing housing demand in US and india)

    Sintex industries ~1,00,000 @28 (reasons listed by shyam sekar)

    Exide industries ~1,00,000 @ 220 (Market leader, turnaround coming as focus is shifting towards replacement market, lots of work on the ground via exile care app etc:, Accounting for Insurance business at Rs48, battery business available at 180)

    All these stocks are long term plays, I'm a long term player. I will hold for at least 3-4 years. My plan is to invest in total around 25,00,000 over next one year. It will be invested in these companies as story plays out or into new opportunities if a crash takes place.

    Please review my portfolio thanks.
     
  2. Ashish Datta

    Ashish Datta New Member

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    Your post title says beginner....but your profile sounds like you have been investing over 5+ years....or did you just hit a jackpot?? I would advice you to go slow and invest in MF's and Bank Deposits as well to protect your capital.

    You have a fairly long term horizon of 3-4 years. Do have a look at Indiabulls Housing, Piramal Enterprises, Yes Bank, REC as these companies are consistent performers that pay handsome dividends as well. Since you will be holding for 3-4 years you can then reinvest the dividends into buying some more stocks :)
     
  3. 7cr

    7cr New Member

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    Thank you for your reply. I have made an investment into Repro India last week. That company is going to be a superstar with their new business. I'm a new investor but I do a lot of research. And my approach is more common sense and scuttlebutt. I hope I hit a jackpot haha!
     
  4. Ashish Datta

    Ashish Datta New Member

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    Repro is a great company. Best of luck for your investment journey and would like to be connected so we can make informed decisions . Do keep a lookout for the companies I suggested...couple of them just made their 52 week highs :)
     
  5. 7cr

    7cr New Member

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    Yes we will keep in touch. I have done a lot of research on Repro India. Being from a family in the print/publishing business i understand the space and the various issues face etc: It is a one of a kind business. I don't know the upside for Repro but I know downside won't be too much. I typically shy away from large cap companies simply because I don't see enough growth potential in them. My goal is to find the next large caps. Big funds are limited to investing in these large caps due to fund size. They will have an army of analysts directing every single vertical so it is difficult to compete against them..
     
  6. W210

    W210 New Member

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    Hi ... I am a new member + new investor.
    I'm looking at KCP and Sintex as good long term candidates to start my portfolio but I am concerned about the current market levels. I would really appreciate if you guys could give me some advice.

    Thanks ...
     
  7. 7cr

    7cr New Member

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    Hi W210,I have bought very small portion of Sintex as of now just for testing purposes. KCP is a high conviction investment for me. You can comfortably load up on KCP at CMP. But please invest with a minimum 3 year horizon. Don't be bothered by corrections and global issues, if there is an overall correction you can use the opportunity to add if you still have spare funds otherwise just sit tight. Thinking long term of atlas 3 years itself gives you a major advantage in the market and eliminates huge amt. of risk. Remember you are buying a company not a stock. Stick with and build your own conviction. Don't sell KCP at 50% upside, hold it and you may see multi bagger returns.
    Agro tech foods, KCP, Smartlink, NESCO and Exide you can enter comfortably and take up full position at cmp. EPC industrie is a long term play on agriculture for me. Sundaram finance is another healthy long term company I like. Repro India is a disruptor and can be a monopoly business, it is going to be winner in my eyes.

    I would advise you to look at KCP, Smartlink, ATFL, NESCO and Repro (staggered buy between 450-550). These are good companies with unknown upside potential and very low downside. Buy them and hold them for minimum three years. Hold them for 3-5 years and you may see some serious returns. Dont sell them unless there is some fundamental change in the company itself. Dont get worried if the stock falls 10 or even 20 25% it is all temporary in the short term. Think long and you have already beaten 90% of indian investors.
     
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  8. RAJE

    RAJE New Member

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    Hi 7CR,
    I am a new member here and new to value investing. mid to long term horizon.( 3 + years) I have recently invested in Sintex, SPML Engg, Kridhan infra, KEC, ITC, PTC, Tata Global, Suven Life Sciences, L&T Fin and Mnappuram fin. Can you please help assess my portfolio.
     
  9. 7cr

    7cr New Member

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    Yes of course. My email is pransach@outlook.com you can send me an email there. Tata global is a good pick, they are on wathclist but I have not done any meaningful research on them. Investing in companies like ITC may not fetch you huge returns but they are strong companies none the less. Everybody has looked/invested in SIntex. They seem like a good company to me as of now but I'm still testing the waters with them.
    Suven have a new drug formula or something that looks to be a game changer. I cannot comment much on any of these companies due to lack of research. But It is good to play the infra theme now. I believe that Infra will be huge over next 10 years. Finance is a good proxy to play on housing and other themes. ITC is not a company I would invest in simply because they are already a huge company. You can look at some smaller FMCG companies. You can also look at some companies in the agriculture/dairy space.
    I'm sure that you have done research on your companies since you plan to hold them for 3+ years. If you have researched and have conviction then trust yourself. Please don't bother about short term fluctuations. Grexit,brexit etc: is not going to affect footfalls in wonderla holidays so majority of the time these global issues may not impact the business of your companies.
    If you have anymore questions or want some advice and help or have questions regarding my investments please feel free to email me:)
     
    Last edited: Aug 1, 2017
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  10. W210

    W210 New Member

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    Thank you @7cr for such a detailed reply and valuable insights. I really appreciate it.
     
  11. 7cr

    7cr New Member

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    Please feel free to email me if you have any questions about investing etc: :) pransach@outlook.com
     
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  12. 7cr

    7cr New Member

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    Portfolio plan update:

    Orient paper and industries 1.5 lakhs over next two months. (Currently holding 1,00,000 @100 would like to own 2.5 lakhs but funding constraint)

    Repro India- 2.5 lakhs over next one year as thesis plays out.(currently holding 70k@500)

    Exide industries- 2.5 lakhs over next one year (currently holding 50k @216)

    Epc irrigation-1.5 lakhs over next one year and upto 2.5 lakhs over next two years as thesis plays out(currently holding 1,00,000 @199)

    Agro tech foods ltd.- 2.5 lakhs over next one year(currently holding 70k @500)

    KCP ltd.- 2.5 lakhs over next one year.(currently holding 1,00,000 @109)

    Smartlink network systems- 2.5 lakhs over next one year as thesis plays out.(currently holding 40k @95)

    NESCO-2.5 lakhs over next one year as thesis plays out.(currently holding 50k @2450)

    I will be buying Wonderla holidays as planned. I will also be closely tracking Pokarna and investing in them slowly. Prima plastics is also on my watchlist along with amrutanjan healthcare, snowman logistics and Crisil. I have exited Sundaram Finance temporarily to pursue other opportunities. Demerger will take time and I feel like I can re-renter at a decent level.

    Plan is still the same to load up on 10-12 stocks 25 lakh total over next one year.
     
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  13. W210

    W210 New Member

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    I'm also holding Orient Paper, 25k @ 101
    Looking to get into KCP and either Repro or Sintex.
     
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  14. W210

    W210 New Member

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    @7cr Can you indicate what should be reasonable entry range for KCP, Repro and Sintex? Thanks in advance.
     
  15. 7cr

    7cr New Member

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    KCP ltd. cmp is an attractive price. I have avg. buy price of around 109. Repro cmp is a decent price. I have avg at 500.. Ideally you would want to get into Repro at 400 levels but i don't know whether stock will reach that level ever again after Hdfc reported it and their BOD business will grow at a rapid pace, their old business has also turned around and they are focussed on collections and cost cutting so... Sintex is a low conviction buy for me. I have just bought for testing purposes I will probably exit at any time if i need the cash for other opportunities. But that being said if company becomes attractive then why not buy more. For now it is just a testing period. I think next two quarters i will track the company and see.. You can look at ATFL and Exide industries too...
     
  16. W210

    W210 New Member

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    Thanks for the reply. I am also of the opinion that any significant lowering from cmp is pretty unlikely, and temporary if it should happen. It's good to know that my thought process is not badly out of line of others with more experience. I'm thinking that in the long term (4+ years) these should be valued satisfyingly higher, because of their sound business.
     
  17. 7cr

    7cr New Member

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    I'm not experienced at all. I have been investing only for 4 months. You can learn a lot with the right education. Specific education is what it is about. Feel free to email I will send my education/research sources etc: etc: Repro is a company that I want to load up on but I'm waiting for it to reach 450 levels again. Smart link ATFL and KCP are very attractive at CMP. So is Orient...
     
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  18. 7cr

    7cr New Member

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    Update: I have decided to stop buying exide and nesco for now. Exide I have decided to stop because they are already a large cap company. They are a very strong company with decent upside and warranted a place in my portfolio. It is hard to see them going 3 or 4 times from here in the next 3-5 years.
    NESCO is an extremely long term play (5-10 years) since they it will take sometime for them to fully monetise the asset. They are a brilliant company and a good opportunity. If all goes as per plan over next the next decade they will have huge cash flows. The sky is the limit with that type of free cash for NESCO. So I will keep adding quarter by quarter as execution plays out. For now I will buying Repro, ATFL, KCP, orient and smartlink. Over the rest of 2017 I will be slightly quiet. As and when cash comes in, if the price is attractive I will buy further. ATFL can be bought all the way upto 600 levels. Even at 650 it is undervalued. Smartlink if execution picks up is an easy 5x from here. KCP is a great opportunity and so is orient as both will proxy on real estate and housing push. I'm still unsure about Sintex.. I may exit the stock to pursue other opportunities. I will also be keeping a close eye on Pokarna.
    As far EPC goes, it has not gone anywhere for many years, integration with the M&M agro devision has not been very good. But I still believe in the industry and the management. I believe M&M will sooner or later list their agro business, either under EPC and rename it or to reward shareholders merge EPC with MASL. Or we may see none of that happen and we may see EPC do very well from here. Either ways downside is limited, it could fall back to 130 in which case I could add a little more, but in the long term there is virtually negligible downside.
     
    Last edited: Aug 3, 2017
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  19. W210

    W210 New Member

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    Compared to me you are still more experienced. My experience does not even total a whole month :)
    And I would like it very much to communicate via emails. Will send one soon.
    It seems to me that Repro anywhere below 500 should be a good buy. Not sure it would be at 450 but who knows. Orient and KCP are fine at CMP.
     
  20. W210

    W210 New Member

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