Associated alcholol and breweries ltd

Hello did you notice the volume is increasing and also this stock has grabbed the attention in many forum KUMARESH sir fy 16 is going to rock with 400 cr revenue 12% opm 48 cr ebita and dep and int at 16 cr so ebiT of 32 cr and net profit of 21 cr eps of 25 so now you tell me my target 250 is resonable isn't

 

Hello iam Tilak Sharma iam interested in this stock because iam in liquor business and found this only company showing excellent growth of over 30% in five years and very important is there trade reciavable and inventory is very low that is very good and since iam in this business I confirmed that they are supplying the 50% of production of ENA TO RADICO DIAGEO, NK DISTERLERRY for vodka brands SMIRNOFF ABSOLUTE AND GREY GOOSE. Now a days the trend is towards grain spirit even for whiskey like Europe the bottlers require grain spirit these guys are bottling for HAIG AND JOHNYWALKER these requires a high quality and good experience I think we can expect this company to grow at its historic growth rate because I see a good potential also since they are even selling country liquor which is around 30% of the revenue I hope they can withstand any shortfalls and cover in other area. A good potential candidate in liquor segment with LOWEST DEBT HIGH GROWTH INCREASING ROE ROIC OPM AND GOOD CAPEX AND DECENT MANGEMENT IF THEY GIVE DIVIDEND THIS QTR THEN WE CAN EXPECT A RERATING IN THIS STOCK EVEN AT 10 PE it works to 130 for fy 15 and 200 for fy 16 still will be under 4 evebita

 

May I have a comparison between AABL & Pincon Spirits?...During the last 5 years, Pincon spirit growth both in revenue n profit is excellent....in last qtr, they decleared dividend too...Extreme popular multibagger picker Ace Investor recommended Pincon recently....I am from W.Bengal n here I am seeing Pincon is doing really good business...building strong brand value by hugely advertising, sponsoring social function. ...went to some liquor shop n their feedback is also very good about the sales of Pincon....recently they got land from W.Bengal govt. for their expansion....Plz share urs views

 

First of all pincon is not considered basically it nil promoter holding cash flow are very low promoter holding in public categories in future enables them to dilute the equity thru warrants and increase the holding by which even if profit increases the eps remains same with equity dilution and only promoter benefiting even now there is 100 cr ncd wait and see the debt postion it is good they have there own brands but the debt is going to be huge and promoter will further dilute equity with AABL at least we have a clear history of 5 years from. Fy 11/ 15 the growth on revenue is 35% and profit is 40% there is consistent cash flow negative working capital and inventory and trade recievable at the lowest. Also in the last five yrs there is capex improvement and fy 15 debt is reduced considerably to 38 cr with Der < 0.6 also the ROE ROCE AND ROIC and OPM has always shown growth no stands at 18% 24% 26% and 11% respectively now the promoter is holding 58% and has increased stake this fy 14 by 8% even bought at the price of 55. Only negative is dividend policy but in microcap we should not worry about this as long as there is no unwanted equity dilution or preference capital thru which promoter strip the dividend. Here agin the buisness model of AABL is supplying high quality grain spirit to leading vodka brands and not directly incurring all the pain of brand building these are kind of space you should look for in this segment because invariably about brand performance they will be able to supply to some manufacturers and maintain opm of 12/13% and bottling for international whiskey is really good and lucrative.
Last but not the least please don't go and buy because it is suggested by some aceinvestor or Valuepickblog do your research and be patient and then invest. This so called investment guru make money using the sudden popularity and sell off with huge and sudden spurt of the price a good example is HBJ capital. Now even after SEBI clear instructions these guys still publish so called GTS to build up curiosity and sudden volumes and make quick bug. Be careful

 

Thx for ur in depth reply

 

Guys read Forbes investor advisers list first is headed by ayush Mital and Donald Francis if you notice in Valuepickr.com and screener.in you will know that ayush Mital has already invested in AABL

 

Plz share d link showing Donald n Auysh Mittal has jolding in AABL....

 

Go to screener.in and refer in one of the discussion ayush mentioned about he started investing in AABL also refer VALUPICKR.com thread of AABL were ayush has clearly mentioned that he is invested since as per SEBI guidelines he cannot comment on buy sell he just mentioned that he is invested

 

These so called ace investors pickers are now not recommending but doing some biased appraisal to attract retail investors and on rise or UC they unload their holdings. Beware such appraisers, I notices some of them publish the appraisal report just ten minutes before clossing bell so that the retail investors does not get a second think and price go up and the appraisers easily unload !!!!!!

 

And they don't even publish the comments about
question their views

 

First off all they are not your type of ace investors neither do they publish investment reports the name mentioned Donald and ayush are founders of valuepickr.com unlike you who have no full knowledge may end up with aceinvestors please this is a forum were even the thread starter has not talked about any share price we are here to discuss the value first read fully understand and then post

 

Value creates wealth and what do you meant by saying "my type of aceinvestor"

 

Guys ok don't sway away from the topic AABL historical growth rate for 5 yrs is 35% say let us assume 30% growth so fy 16 is 390 cr sales 60/62 % is raw material cost 230 cr other expense around 70 cr employees cost 17 cr dep 11 cr inventory change 10 cr so max 340 cr so profit on operations 45 cr tax and finance cost 15/17 cr so 28/30 cr profit roe will be 25% book value around 100 debt 0.5 so even at 6 Evebita the market capitalisation should be 250/300 cr with 10/13 PE which will be less than sales and compare to sector PE the target should be anywhere in 250/300 range in FY 16 one good dividend is enough.

 

with bottling for international brands like johny walker and haig and single malt glendrummond and major supply of ena to reputed vodka brands like smirnoff absolute hidden investment in two breweries as associate company mount everest and narmada distellery target can be 300

 

Guys in the screener the debt is showing and roe of Fy 14 is showin once fy15 debt roe and cash flow entered it will appear in many search in screener s now it is right time to accumulate

 

Btw....What about its current debt n roe level?...is there any update??

 

DANGER AYUSH MITTAL OF FORBES WIZARD HAS ISSUED WARNING ABOUT THIS STOCKS:

Dear Friends,

I got a call from couple of friends asking about my interested in Associated Alcohol. Just want to clarify that I'm not recommending or endorsing any idea (specifically Associated Alcohol). Like I have mentioned in my ppt - many often we just buy starting quantities based on the good numbers and past performance of a company to understand it better. And similarly we have a small exposure in this which we bought probably 6-7 months back based on the consistent good performance being delivered by the co.

There are several negative also in this co (like mentioned above) - 1. Lack of transparency 2. Industry is such that there haven't been many cases of big winners 3. Volatile numbers (I was quite not happy to see the sudden jump in Q4FY15 results with no explanation in the notes to acs).

So please be careful, do your own homework, understand the context of the discussion, and don't take any/every mention as an endorsement.

Thanks & Regards,
Ayush

https://forum.valuepickr.com/t/associated-alcholols-breweries-ltd/1570/20


DONALD OF VALUEPICKER HAS ALSO ISSUED CLEAR WARNING:


As you might have noticed these are cautionery statements put out by Ayush & Hitesh for the benefit of newbies who frequent ValuePickr and other forums for investible idea recommendations.

If you set alerts/search - you will be able to see that Ayush's disclosure on this thread has been used (out of context) by several unscrupulous people on different message boards like MMB and RJ saying Forbes listed wizard Ayush (or something similar) has invested in Associated Alcohols...folks might get excited...jump in at the wrong time ....you get the drift.

This is dangerous territory for newbies - we have to remain vigilant - and do our bit in educating new investors.

https://forum.valuepickr.com/t/associated-alcholols-breweries-ltd/1570/23

SO YOU CAN BUY ON YOUR OWN RESEARCH BUT NOT On BASIS OF FORBES WIZARDS RECOS

 

I read the entire thread and it just wrong to copy paste the last comment of ayush even if you clearly see the wordings he did not deny having invested and did not mention what is meant by small quantity the spike in the last qtr employee cost is discussed in detail and the company also has given some clarifications which is there in the thread even the last comment of ayush before this when somebody pointed about holding has replied that there is nothing wrong in that so don't copy paste the last comment it was given as a clarification with sebi regulations in mind what I understand clearly after reading is that this company has clearly grown at 35% and that is what has got the attention of the investor like ayush on first place To invest and every company there will some negative which was also discussed in the forum copy pasting one portion of the comment does not give a full understanding and even in the thread it was mentioned that ayush has invested and ultimately it is correct and yes he has invested what qty he has no need to reveal but as investors we can see for ourselves the growth numbers and study the AR now I feel that now the heavy weight realising that it a good one then they noticed the price has gone up by 15/20% they suddenly come up with this vague sought of clarification Just highlighting one two negatives and when price goes down They buy fully and then say now the negatives has been solved this has been going on for long time as retail investors we should be able to read the thread fully and come to conclusion here it is obvious that this company has got good potential otherwise why there was a full fledged discussion With such good ground work done by some senior which gives a clear picture about the investment rationale far better rather hastily conclude with copy pasted last comment.

 

Kumaresh5 months ago
Hai Ayush earlier also I asked about this have you seen the dec numbers of associated alcholol and brewery ltd very interesting you suggested that we see for consistency in performance now how do you feel with dec qtr numbers

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  Ayush Kumaresh5 months ago
  Hi Kumaresh,
  
  I can't share my view/opinion on a stock as per the SEBI requirement. However, will like to share that we are invested in the same and its good to see the co posting good results.
  This was five months before itself so copy pasting anybody's can do using own brain is importantly