Aurobindo Pharma

Discussion in 'Ask A Query About Your Stock Picks And Portfolio' started by Sachin pathak, Oct 11, 2015.

  1. Sachin pathak

    Sachin pathak Active Member

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    USFDA approval for its ANDA Aripiprazole Tablets in six strengths.....

    What uptick / opportunity does it bring to Aurobindo?

    It is bioequivalent and therapeutically equivalent to the reference listed drug product (RLD) Abilify Tablets, of Otsuka Pharmaceutical Company and which has an estimated market size of $7.3 billion in the United States, for the twelve months ended August 2015, according to IMS data.

    Abilify is one of the blockbuster drugs off the patent list in 2015
     
  2. abhay6605

    abhay6605 Member

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  3. shakti khanduri

    shakti khanduri Active Member

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    Aurobindo Pharma is an investment which is worth keeping for very long time for many multibagger returns.
     
  4. Sachin pathak

    Sachin pathak Active Member

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    Hi,

    My question was a bit specific about how much would the company benefit further from aripiprazole.

    That its a multibagger - i have no doubts. Its already the case with me....my cost is less than 50/- per share
     
  5. Carl Icahn

    Carl Icahn Active Member

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    Here is an update I found on twitter regarding the impact of Aripiprazole approval:

    Aurobindo Pharma (ARBP IN)

    Aripiprazole approval strengthens US sales

    Auroblndo Pharma (ARBP) got GSM% nod for generic AbIlley (with potential market of .$ 0.21m) taking Its cumulative AHEM approvals for F`116 to 20, which is the highest amongst its competing peers for US generic business. With this approval, we estimate a robust 23% CAGR for ARBP's US generic sales over FlE1S-12 to US$ 119Smn in HUT. Specifically, we estimate the gAbilify to contribute Incremental sales of US630mn/US$02mn to ARBP for fl(16/M(12 with EPS implication of Rs 1.00/Rs 1.80 Implying an Incremental earrings of 3.836/0.3%, respectively. Hence, considering the Incremental earning implicyllon from the said approval, we raise our price objective to Rs 900 ().e. 22x FYN), from earlier Rs 900.

    ARBP Is the 6th generic to launch Aripiprazole in US

    Aurobindo pharma got USFDA nod for Aripiprazole tablets for all the strengths of 2mg, Smg, lam. 'Sm. 20mg and 30mg. It is generic equivalent of branded product Ability of Otsuka Pharma and indicated for psychotic conditions such as schizophrenia and bipolar disorder (manic depression). Aurobindo is the sixth generic companyto launch the drug after competitors like - Tem, Torrent, Alembic, Hetero and Apotax, who launched the drug after the patent expiry in February 2016 in the US market.

    Generic MAIM boosts F1•16/M1IE earnings by 3206/4.3%

    The branded market size of Aripiprazole in OS was US$ 0.2bn and the said drug is available in multiple forms like Oral tablets, von (Orally Disintegrating Tablet), and Oral solution. The tablet form account for .96% of the total market.

    With the simultaneous launch of gAbilify by five generic players, the branded market has already witnessed price erosion to the tune of Mo. VW. ARBP is thegeneric player and Sun Pharma as well as Cadila are waiting for USHJA approval for their AND,. Additionally, considering Me scenario of backward integration in the drug by all competing players, we expect larger price correction the drug gradually. Hence, anticipating SM6/9296 price erosion in FYIRM12, we estimate the drug to contribute incremental sales of US$30mn/USMI2mn to ARBP with an EPS implication of Rs 1.00/Rs 1.80 implying an incremental earrings of 3.06/0.396, respectively.

    Strongest ANDA approval Row vs. global peers: Buy with raised TP Rs 900

    With the approval of Aripiprazole AMA, ARBP's total AMA approval for M16 became 20 (including 6 injectables) and that is strongest amongst competing peers in US generic space. Factoring the fresh sales from Aripiprazole, we estimate robust 23. CAGR for ARBP's US generic sales over FY1.17 to US$ 11 in RM. Hence, led by Me incremental earning implication from the mid approval, we raise our price objective to Rs 900 (le. 220 PY17), from earlier Rs 900.


    [​IMG]
     
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  6. Sachin pathak

    Sachin pathak Active Member

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    Thanks carl....

    Exactly what i was looking for.

    How do you hit upon such articles?
     
  7. shakti khanduri

    shakti khanduri Active Member

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    @ Mr Pathak Sir, almost same is my case. Took position about 6years(aprox)back at about same price,but in small quantity.I am of the opinion that in similar cases we should not bet on potential of a single product but on management's ability to face new future challenges and expand company's market.I am from pharma background . Can we explore some more ideas(pharma) for potential multibagger returns.
     
    Last edited: Oct 12, 2015
  8. kharb

    kharb Well-Known Member

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    You r from Pharma, you give your top picks for long term.
     
    Last edited: Oct 12, 2015
  9. shakti khanduri

    shakti khanduri Active Member

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    @Mr kharb,we will try. Plz, suggest some names.My experiences guide me towards Contrarian perspective.
     
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