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Hello people,

Fear is more powerful than greed and there is no greed still. People are scared and now people are starting to say that the risk reward is not in their favor right now so they wont buy. Proper bull market thought process.

Till the time they are scared and market goes up, we can all be buyers. The day they are not scared to buy, sell it all. Greed and fear always rules markets and i still smell fear on the street.

 

Hello people,

I do hope this finds all people who read this page with good faith. Believe me when i tell you this, however good a company is, do not put your money in it if there is corporate governance issues. Let me tell you. I keep saying investing is emotional intelligence rather than cognitive intelligence.

What happens is risks can be quantified. Valuation can be quantified, earnings growth can be quantified, but you cannot quantify fear and greed. People can act more irrational than you can remain rational.

What happens with corporate governance is by not able to quanitfy it, people act really irrational. So they just end up selling it and all your hard earned effort goes down the drain.

See YES BANK, DHFL,manpasand.

I bet a lot of retailers have bought yes bank. Trust me we do not know what is in the books, they can go under if they do not get funding. Now historically in India no bank has failed and if they are bailed they are done by the government. Now i do not think it will happen to yes bank that the governemtn will want to bail them.

Focus on good companies with good management,even though you make money , make less money its fine, just do not loose too much money over time.

 

Hi there,

Hope you guys are doing good. I just checked my holdings, to be honest my portfolio is just moving 10% and -15% down. I am invested in a mid and small names to be honest. I think this with everyone. I know a few will get frustrated. The markets are in a cleaning mode now.

People are so fearful that they are punishing everything. The slightest sign of debts and the company is getting punished. All kachra getting cleaned. This is the sign of a bull market beginning to be honest. The previous sector leaders are being taken out and new boys will come.

So if you get companies you like, buy them, believe me do not get scared.The full market is fearful right now, go and buy. This is the time, you will literally thank yourself in the future. I know people will say are you mad, the market is bad and all but this is the time you pump it. Buy good quality companies and let it be. They can under perform for a year but the cycle always turns.

People cannot stay sad all the time, nor they can stay happy all the time as well. Life is mean reverting, so are people and markets.

US markets is causing our markets not to perform. The money is so hot there, yesterday trump just tweeted one thing and the market went 1.5% up on a damn tweet? Are you f******* serious? That is something i do not believe can sustain on a bloody tweet. Either Trump is in the market making his friends rich, or people are just chasing hot money. Either case if i was a global fund manager, i would reduce my exposure to US markets and focus on emerging markets.

OUR markets will take time for sure. Its not going to come back that quickly, but this is the time to pick names you like. Pick good counters and hold them.

 

Good blog , on yes bank.

https://www.stallionasset.com/blog/yes-bank-say-yes-or-no/

 

Good morning,

Intermarket analysis, shows me a few risks, which i would like to address. With the dollar becoming a tad bit weaker, this should increase commodity prices making it an inflationary environment. I think we can see this in gold right now. But there is a contradictory statement that gold is used as safe guard against inflation, so markets seem to pricing this in.

The data is supportive with the interest rates being reduced, making the flow of funds flow out of US markets into emerging markets.

Our bond yields have come down in India as well and if this sustains we can see a good run.

I am expecting markets to sustain till the budget, could possibly correct also on the NIFTY( 300-500 POINTS, A MINOR CORRECTION, I CAN BE COMPLETELY WRONG HERE). But this will be a dip to buy if you get some nice companies.

The rate cut should create a good gush of inflow into emerging markets. So more bullish than bearish in the long run till now.

Hope you have a good day.

Cheers.

 

Hello All,

So i have been doing a lot of reading the past week. The thing i would like to share with you guys is something i encountered.

I noticed in the stock market you will always feel grief. How you take on that grief is up to you.

Take 4 scenarios.
1) You buy a stock, the stock goes up. You sell it at a lower price and it goes higher. You will feel bad for sure.

2) You buy a stock, it goes higher, you do not sell at a high ,then you sell it at a lower price, you will feel bad.

3) You buy a stock it goes down, you sell it a loss and it goes further down, you feel good.

4) You buy a stock it goes down, you sell it at a loss and it goes higher, you will feel bad.

The point i am trying to make is, the market does not give a damn about this. Only in our head we give a damn but the market does not. So indirectly there is no room for emotions. The market will keep doing what it has to do irrespective of you.

The baises are in our head. The only way to get use to it is to practice it. The mistakes what people tend to do is the tend to over invest and go big when they are not even ready. Why?
Because of greed.


I learnt that investing is a process. It is like a sport, first you need to start small, get use to the game, then once you reach a certain level, level up by increasing your investment size.

Do not go for the jackpot at one go, you will tend to make stupid decisions.

Happy investing.

 

The one and only Dolly khanna.

 

So recently i read a book on an Successful Indian Investor. Buy companies which have performed brilliantly in the last 10 years and leave them in your portfolio for the next 10 years. Do not do anything to it, even if the company goes bankrupt. What happens in this style is you just have to sit back.

The style is very very simple, but difficult to implement. In the book , the portfolios have a drawdown of 50%. Yes you heard it right, 50%.

Now i just started thinking, even with a 50% drawdown, he still made money. Half the guys i know sell stocks making a 30% drawdown. Would i be mentally comfortable with a 50% drawdown, i honestly don;t know.

But the main point is even though the fund manager is so big, he had a 50% drawdown. I learnt it is ok to have a drawdown, it is part of the business, but the tricky part is you must be confident on your investments and believe in your thesis.

BTW the investor is Saurabh Mukherji. Great respect for the man.

 

What happened in the budget yesterday was a complete unknown uknown. Many individuals i spoke to were really sad. Why?

Because their expectation was quite high from this government and nothing was delivered. We saw this in markets when it dropped yesterday. All the mass were like modi modi and i think the FM delivered a very neutral budget.

Expectations were not met, people are sad and we are seeing this reflected in the price.

Also with the promoters having to reduce their stake ,this is going to really affect supply.

I too was dissapointed but what to do. We live in India. I hope our government does the right thing and spends the money wisely. The problem is faith has been lost by people which is not good.

One thing was only good was that the government did not go over board. I was a little worried when the RBI deputy governor resigned because i thought Nirmala would go for a fiscal stimulus by borrowing more. But they did use sense and knew they would be way aggressive.

I personally will be fully invested but its going to take a toll on our emotions. Guys who entered in 2017 will not get out fully, people will be scared and sentiment will be destroyed for the common man.

But a smart man will know hold on, markets are always mean reverting. What goes up goes down and what goes down will go up.

The problem is we need to keep our emotions at bay, be rationale and just let the investments be. Buy good companies, quality companies right now, we will definitely be getting them cheap. When the time is right, we can go hit a six, but i personally believe because of sentiment, things will take time to come.

I am more in favor of a time correction rather than a price correction.

 

Hi Investors,

" Buy when people are fearful, sell when people are greedy. "

The most simple line to say, the most difficult line to implement. Is anyone buying right now, lol.

Every investor is just scared and so pessimistic. This is the time to BUY. But to buy you need balls of steel.

Only the guys who will take this leap, have courage and believe in themselves will be the ones who make money.

This is why even the smartest people do not make money because they do not have the courage to buy when the crowd is selling.

Let the GDP growth slow down, let the media say pessimistic things, let people say the market will crash. Keep quite and do your buying slowly and nicely, everything reverts to mean.

I remember in 2017, everyone is bullish and look what happened.

Right now it is the exact opposite, everyone is bearish,let us see what happens.

 

Love Keneths Simplicity

 

Hi Friends,

My portfolio is around 10% down, got a mix of all large , mid caps and small caps. I am writing this to just tell my fellow investors i am with you. I can feel your pain but believe me it is not worth taking pain. This is exactly opposite of 2017.

If there was so much euphoria in 2017 but the upside was not sustainable, with so much pain in 2019, the downside also will not be sustainable.

Markets work on it's own logic. It is the collective sentiment of the crowd, it is the sum of all parts of what all people think. As an investor we have to use other people's irrationality by keeping our rationality.

Right now every person is only saying sell. I have not heard one person say buy.

There is a big bull market coming, the more pain the more we gain.The only problem is how much pain can you take?

If you are in good companies let it be, do your buying you will thank yourselves later believe me on that.This thread is proof and going against the crowd is only way to make money. Problem is only few people are able to do it.

Relax breath, this too shall pass, when will it pass is a multi billion dollar question but this too shall pass as well.

Buy when there is pessimism, sell when there is optimism. Easiest thing to say, most difficult thing to implement.

 

For all the Yes Bank Lovers.

 

Good morning people,

I am down 12% as of today morning, the date is 29/07/2019. To be honest it's getting so frustrating but what to do. I try doing Yoga everyday just to keep my head and heart clean, not letting it affect my emotions.

There is so much negativity, it is actually worse than 2018 October, when the market came cracking down and that was at 10000 levels.

Trying to get the mind of things is not easy, but i know this is an opportunity. I do believe by sticking to good companies we will be rewarded. The market is a mind game, your own enemies are your own thoughts.

I will try my best to stop mine from doing irrational things and i hope you can use this post to help yourself doing irrational things either.

 

Hola Amigos,

Haha, just trying to lighten the mood. Things have gotten better, trying to ignore the market. I realized one thing of very great importance. If the market panics,and it rises or falls its fine. The day it stops panicking that is the day to be very scared. We are fools of our own emotions and we have to control it.

Coming to the rate cut of 35bps today, seemed priced in markets are sitting. We need growth for the markets to push higher, but i think the price correction may be done. We may be in for some time correction but lets hope that companies keep growing.

My condolences to Sushma swaraj family. She was an honorable person, Rest in peace.

Keep smiling, be happy, enjoy markets , be rational, let emotions be at bay.