Camlin Fine Chemicals and Cigniti Tech

Again very convincing presentation.But , by calling it commodity type what I meant was that it does not appear to have MOAT,which ensures sustainablity of the company in the long term of 15-20 years henceforth .To my mind dominance,backward integration is no assurance of sustainablity against future competitions. Another point,I find that these days most of the good chemical companies are not comfortably priced, keeping valution of sector in mind.Why not wait for reduced p/e? This company has enough flot to buy in future . I myself buy stocks with the temprament of a vegetable buyer seeking bargain. I am always liable to be wrong because,as SOROS says,imperfect understanding is a human condition.

 

Very interesting perspective. If I sense a company does well for four to five years I tend to buy; because like Keynes once famously said : the only truth about the long term is that in the long term we are all dead. That said , I like your perspective from the sustainsbity point of view. Please give me some examples of companies you admire from buying shares point of view, so I understand better.

 

Correct me if my knowledge is incorrect.but Keynes although a Great Economist was short term speculator and did not make money in the earlier phase.Later on he also switched to long term to invest successfully.I am firm believer of long term in investment.

 

I agree with long term investing entirely. One must look at the long term. Anything else is speculation. On Meynard Keynes and his success as an investor I do not know much. The only thing I remember my profs telling me is that as an investment manager his success was driven by looking at alternative asset classes. Be that as it may, as regards Camlin :

The reason I like them is that they have the building blocks for generating disproportionate growth in the future. In this regard I see it as a Shilpa.( Of course the IP Shilpa has is significant) . While not being in an oligopolistic market, it is almost one and from what one understands they are placing very concentrated bets on areas which offer disproportionate returns, without compromising financial robustness. The margins are good, the runway ahead is significant and the management has track record. Of course, more research we do the better. I have started buying from around 100 levels and will keep buying over a six month period.

 

Congratulations ! For buying such a fine company operating in such a niche and coplex segment of oncology-to me it is a MOAT- at admirably such a low rate.I am no match of you-I have already been impressed by your critical analytical acumen and competence. What ever small I have achieved in investment, is mainly coincidences and luck.Please keep guiding me.

 

Dear Shakti,

The only person who can guide us is ourselves. Every other input must be taken with a healthy pinch of critical reasoning. Only from this can we develop our own style of investing, which is important. This calls for continous introspection and intellectual honesty.

As far as Camlin is concerned, only time will tell if it is a sensible call or not. The risk reward seems to be in its favour of nothing changes dramatically. But things change so a constant watch is a must. Not only that, but also an ability to act decisively in the face of changing facts.

This is the key reason I buy over extended periods once I like a stock enough to put it in my portfolio.

Good example of this is Kitex Garments. An excellent business but expensive. Always wanted a part of it but was unwilling to pay the price. After q2 stock is on a down slide with possibly more downside to come. But I see it as a chance to enter into an excellent business over the long term.

Good luck and look forward to mutually rewarding discussions.

 

@Fun_Da_Mentalist ,My style is long term,as I am lazy hence reluctant to rotate.I am also impressed by the fundamentals of KITEX but not sure of sustainablity for long time.Also, this scrip is very well discovered, which I don't prefer .suggest some undiscovered ideas which appeal you.I am positive - your analytical acumen can some bright ideas which are not obvious to others.

 

If you buy IDFC bank systematically over the next three years, with a large part of the purchase front ended, you will make very decent money over a five year period. It starts quoting this weekend or early next week.

AIA engineering is excellent as it supplies to growth industries; has good ROE, ROCE numbers with a staggering CAGR of 77 % in operating cash flow over five years.
Srikakahasthi pipes is an equally good story.

Among the large caps, RIL and Infosys will stun many over a four year period.

So the stocks I like very much are :

RIL
Infosys
IDFC Bank
Shilpa Medicare
Granules India
Camlin Fine Sciences
Kitex Garments
AIA Engineering
Srikalahasthi Pipes
Housing Finance Companies

All of them are known ideas but there is money to be made in them

 

A IA is already with me.I will prefer to bet on other stock you suggested elsewhere Kaveri seeds-you detailed nicely.Thanks.Also, kindly give your detailed views on PCJ& VAIBHAV.

 

Kaveri is a tough one. Good stock facing some sector related issues like political regulation. If that is removed it will realise superb value. Then the other company specific issues have also been highlighted. Yet, I am unable to look away and ignore it.

 

In my opinion,in such cases one should bet on managemen' quality or conviction in management' ability to taka company forward after taking care of such headwinds which comes from time to time.Such hic ups present oportunity to take entry at much better rates. Do you remember more adverse circumtaces of SKS MICRO? Try to recollect what HOWARD MARKS says in such cases,if you don't agree with JOHN TEMPLETON.

 

@Fun_Da_Mentalist it is proving tough for me too, to ignore Kaveri. I couldn't resist, I took a small 5% exposure today (5% of what I intend to buy!)
@shakti khanduri Bingo!. The SKS reference is apt, though I believe SKS went through tougher times than Kaveri. There were even discussions around Going Concern status those days!.

 

Very very wise words indeed!

 

Would like to know how the seniors are interpreting the second quarter results of Camlin Science. I think the results are good, if one ignores the exceptional expense of 454.73 lakhs, (seems related with the Insurance claim of a fire accident, which happened in the financial year 2013-14 - something I can't understand).

If price corrects further, it will be an opportunity for accumulating.

Views of seniors will help me in better understanding.

S.Karthikeyan

 

We have to wait for analysis from Nirmal Bang. Stock has longterm prospects so SIP is good idea.

 

Thanks a lot Sroutaji.

 

Hi Partha my watsapp number is : 91-9841413188. Kindly add me to the group.

 

@singaram tiyagarajan you have posted in wrong post. This is discussion on Camlin.

 

Camlin Fine Sciences has issued a clarification note on this which I am attaching. Just that it is worded in such a confusing manner that I am not sure if it clarifies or confuses further. Based on this note it is not clear to me what the implications of this line item are for future quarters. If it is clear to someone, please help clarify.

Please also note that promoter holding has come down this quarter.