FUTURE MULTI BAGGER COMPANY ANALYSIS

@RamaMurthSastriChalla- very good cartoon. But you could not see my presence,I am inside the trench.

 

what happened sir ? i am not understand your post ...please explain ....

 

I just like your one post of yesterday ,where stock market graph is shown and it has gone down breaking the ground .Three persons are shown wondering what has happened,and fourth unseen is I ,inside the trench.

 

no ji ... in this fall ...In that " Trench you find so many hidden Gems " we are all seeing but finally you will get those ...

 

@RMSC Sir,
Please guide us with levels in Grauer & Weil. Have been accumulating since 18 levels.. failed to book profit at 36 levels. ....Holding for Long Term though....

 

@K.Mahesh ji ,
profit booking is most important sir , but it is a good stock and good management company .... Rs. 22 is the strongest demand area ....

 

Thanks Sir!

 

Sir we are all deep in trench. How to rescue now?

 

Do I read that slowdown in china led to decrease in oil price with shale being a factor too.

Now the decline started from mid 2014. Was it known that China slowing down even then? I dont know. Further as in the case of other commodities, if lower Chinese demand ( resulting from slowdown) resulted in oil prices fall, interesting to note China's oil imports infact increased ~9% yoy upto Oct2015.

Actually the widely accepted trigger for the oil slide is United States domestic production nearly doubling over the last few years ( fracking boom) resulting in American imports plummeting and pushing out oil imports that now needed to find another home but didnt find any. This coupled with major oil producers stance ( which still holds) of not cutting back production lead to the still prevailing oil glut and falling prices. Why these producers hold on to not wanting to cut production is another debate. Along the way also comes the lifting of sanctions and China's 'new normal' economic growth rate of 7% ( probably depressing oil prices further as China has contributed heavily to new demand for crude oil, but that could be a thing of the past) and the expectation of continued imbalance in supply and demand gets cemented more. Demand for crude oil being seen as weak or at least not sufficient enough to cope with all the additional supply that is expected to hit the market in the coming years. some expecting prices for crude oil to go down from current levels. Some forecasted prices well below $30 per barrel and we are already elow $30. BP now says $10 is not improbable.

For oil prices to recover, increased demand for oil will have to be accompanied by decreased supply. One positive here is that the drop in oil prices has drastically reduced the amount of investment that is going into exploration of new oil fields. That should decrease the growth in supply. The current excess in supply is partially the result of all the heavy investment in previous years when oil prices were high.

Supplies should also be reduced when high-cost producers are unable to stay in business at current prices. The recent era of high oil prices brought a lot of expensive producers of crude oil into the market. This includes many producers of shale oil where cost of production is relatively high. These look increasingly vulnerable the longer oil prices stay low.

The longer prices stay low, the more likely it is that some oil producers will be driven out of the market. The low prices is already biting almost all oil producing countres. But its these low oil prices which will eventually restore the balance between supply and demand.

Voices from some quarters are already suggesting a recovery beginning H2 2016 with oil around $50 by end 2016.

 

i said several times on my previous posts :
some remedies to avoid market crash risk :

1.Make investment in Quality stocks only
2.60 % - 70 % Stocks in our portfolio make from top 200 companies only
3.Don't make investment in a single day
4.Make investment with 4-5 parts and invest slowly with your stock allocated money
5.Always try to maintain 15-20 % cash reserves minimum
6. Profit booking is also very important factor
7. Try for short term trading with small portion and get trading advantage
8. Dont Try for all stocks in your portfolio investment for Multi Bagger stocks
9. Before investing please think tomorrow on wards if stock delisted from stock exchange what is our future plan
10. We are all know up and downs are common in stock market , But we never try to know our risk apatite
11. Dont follow " Tips "
12. if you are a low risk apatite investor SIP method is very best method in stock investment
13. Always Buy stocks at Margin of safety
14.Dont try for very long term investment because human life is short and try for only 2-3 years max . investment

ALL THE BEST

 

I follow most,but always slip in mantaining cash .What has always happen ,that I keep cash and try to resist to be fully invested but when market keep on running,I feel left out with cash .And then I take the wrong step after lot of internal resistance. And historically big fall will follow soon.This is the safety step I know,but could never implement it ,when it was most desired .More over it us always accompnied by some fresh requirement of funds for some other urgency tightening the screw further on liquidity. .Although I try to make up the situation with fresh earning from my main source, my full time job.But still this wrong step is denting my long term CAGR returns.I hope ,next time I shall do it,but that has been case of my decision every time.Investing realy required lot of decipline,you miss once ,market will immediately catch you unguarded.Big learning for me - Market will always fall when you are fully invested with no cash .

 

My advise to all Investors is first they have to decide they keep on buying in market fall or they buy at market after stabilization and rising time ?

almost 90 % of the investors or traders not having clarity on this point ...
so please make investment rules first and after that trade or investment ...

if you are a high risk appetite investor buy in falling market ...if you are low risk apatite investor try to buy after stabilization and rising market .....
and more over most of the persons dont put stop loss ...big contradictory between value investing and safe investing ...fundamental analysis is having big loophole in this point .... second method if you have stop loss you will be much safer than others ....
these are all my personal observations from so many traders and investors past 2.5 Decades ...

ALL THE BEST

 

RMSC

Aren't they all value investors? These ride on the stock picks of gurus/wizards/savvy investors. Yet, can't take in a fall of 20-30-40% in their stride.
They quote from so many names which I've never heard of before. Perhaps, if they even followed what their gurus preach.

 

Dear Members .... My intention is not criticizing any body ... these are all my observations ... if it is not correct please don't follow it .. may be i am wrong ... correcting others is also wrong in Trading or Investment ... they should learn with their Lessons and experience ...
we really don't know actual risk apatite of others ....

ALL THE BEST

 

We always know more than we practice.There is always a gap, less the better.

 

Today i made successful Trade ...

 

goodness kharb!
It wasn't even distantly aimed at you. But the "value investors" with fancied gurus who are the who's who of the investment world. But looks like my post offended you. My apologies and I'll refrain from posting in any of your threads or to any of your posts.

 

Surely this is with reference to investing only. Otherwise to be followed judiciously. Else should i open a clinic just to close the gap between my practice and knowledge of medicine when i am not a doctor?

 

Definite thums up to points 6, 7, 10. All these long term investing (invest and forget or invest with 5+ yr time horizon) creating value is just chance. Profits take out periodically is real. Critically evaluate your risk profile and apetite (no bull shitting with yourself) and stick to it. Invest accordingly. So no harm if you dont have leaders or top 200 in your portfolio.