Members Volunteerly Quarterly Disclosure of their Investment Portfolio upto only 30 Stocks

Had accumulated IndiaNivesh 10K @ avg price of Rs.41/- with time horizon of upto 4 years.

 

Shree Pushkar Chemicals::: In FY17, revenue mix was -

Dye intermediates ~63%
Fertilizer ~18%
Dyestuff ~13%

In Q4 FY17, dyestuff as % of sales stood at ~19% vis-à-vis ~6-7% in H1 FY17.

By FY19E, with additional dyestuff capacity coming online... along with increasing captive consumption of dye intermediates, dyestuff will probably takeover dye intermediate as major contributor to revenue. This will result in operating margin expansion by ~150-200 bps i.e. 18~18.5%.

Management is not worried about Chinese players, though we as investors do need to be wary of this. At some point in time there will be margin pressure, as Chinese players are formidable and with huge capacities. They might now not be as competitive as they have been in the past, but still they will obviously try to sell their stuff, resulting in overcapacity in dyestuff segment, which could eventually lead to pressure on the margins.

Topline this fiscal will increase by 25-27% (lets be a bit conservative).So expecting 400 cr topline with 18% operating margins, with 33% tax. Depreciation will be close to 6-7 cr. So, ~ 42-44 cr bottomline.

As per these back of the hand calculations, stock is trading at 16 times FY18 PE at 225. Will there be more upside ???

And will Shree Pushkar Chemicals trade at 16 PE or 24 PE? Let's reverse that to get an answer. Would you be a buyer if today the stock was at 16 PE trailing?
If yes, then we have a margin of safety that if there is a correction in the markets this will protect the downside with its results if it trades at 16 PE.

Now for growth, we really have to wait for the full capacity expansion results to start playing out and the disclosure on the further foray into textile chemicals. I will expect them to give us updates every year on the plans for the forthcoming year. That we can watch.
The management has been able to continuously innovate and is for all purposes debt free. Any particular reason to think or suspect that they will not innovate from here?

Is it cyclical? Is it a core portfolio? That will be discovered in time.

One thing is for sure, the debt free status and innovative growth and profit oriented management is a plus not a minus. To say otherwise would be to say let's invest in a debt laden non innovative management who cannot show growth in sales and profits and that will make money.

We know what makes money always.

 

Super analysis is there of stock. Very good write up

 

My portfolio excluding mutual funds as on 30 June is as follows. Yes Bank 10%,HDFC bank 6.5%,ICICI bank 6.5%,Kotak bank 5.3%,Indus Sind bank3.9%,Axis bank 3.4%,DCB bank 2.4%,RBL bank 2.2%,Fedral Bank 1.8%,IDFC bank1.3%,DHFL fin 6.5%,Lic housing 1.8%,GIC housing 1%,Rel Capital 3.8%,ICICI insurance 3.2%,L&T fin 2.5%,L&T 9.3%,RIL 8.9%,ITC 4.8%,Asian paint 4%,Ultratech Cement 2.8%,HUL 2.1%,Indian hotel 1.2%,Maruti 1%,Dmart 1%,Vardhman textiles 1%,less than 1% includes Tata motors,JSW steel.

 

We at @AlphaStreetIn @VedicStocks recommend turnaround & stocks with some valuation comfort now & for a few years . Watching them QonQ is a must . The list includes 1. VIP clothing 2. Intellect Design 3. Dion Global 4. Centrum Capital 5 Vijaya Bank 6 Adani Ent 7 L&T Fin 8 SREI Fin 9 Gayatri Sugar 10 Riga Sugar 11 Shriram EPC 12 Yes Bank 13 Indusind Bank 14 Omkar Speciality 15 Vikas Eco 16 Vikas WSP 17 Fineotex 18 Prakash Industries 19 Kiri Industries 20 Mercator .

 

Your holding doesnt reflect the conviction you have in one particular stock

 

In this case conviction is sector specific. It is mainely focussed on Finance.

 

Absolutely nothing can keep an individual stock out of the equation. A sector view is made up of individual stocks and if one has a conviction on a particular sector its only because of conviction on individual names within the sector.

So if I repeatedly go gaga on a particular stock because of its great future and I am also bullish on the sector this scrip is in, not having this stock or a very low allocation to this stock doesnt make sense.... holdings do not reflect specific stock conviction

 

Actually investment style is developed over a period of time for most of investers ( there may be exceptions).Every invester ultimately settles at style which give him results and satisfaction.l am basically conservative invester of 55 plus and like to invest in secular known growth stories .My target return are 15 % CAGR or nifty plus 5% or avg of best mutual funds ,which ever is high.For me in large cap conviction start at aprox 3% and then if conviction is high it goes near to 6% and at around 9% conviction is highest and don't like to invest in single stock above 10% ( but due to only appreciation it may go higher but no fresh funds will go after 10%)But in small and mid cap my conviction start at 2% and at around 5% it is highest and like not to invest more fresh funds then that in single small or mid cap.In small and mid cap I invest mostly through small cap mutual funds like mirae emerging blue chip fund,franklin smaller compnies fund ,Rel small cap fund,dsp Microcap fund and HDFC mid cap fund etc.I keep arond 25 Stocks( would like to reduce it to 20 in future which may increase allocation to individual stocks slightly) in my portfolio .Presently I am bullish on Pvt Financial,consumer including FMCG and infra cum defence.Yes this is in contrast to what you said or many investers follows but more similar to mutual funds( I assume) except that I can be more overweight or underweight (or even can skip) on a sector(but not on individual stock ) .

 

@kharb - How much is the timeframe for keeping any stock in your holding?I am interested in your experience.

 

My current portfolio holdings are 1 HDFC Bank 2 Kotak Bank 3 Yes Bank 4 ICICI Bank 5 InduSind Bank 6 Axis Bank 7 DCB bank 8 Federal Bank 9 RBL Bank 10 DHFL 11 L & T financial Holding 12 HDFC Life 13 ICICI prudential Life 14 RIL 15 L&t 16 HUL 17 ITC 18 Asian Paints 19 Ultra tech Cement 20 Maruti 21 D mart 22 ICICI Lombard insurance 23 A B Capital 24 Vardhman Textiles. Since last post I completely exited from IDFC Bank(at loss), Lic Housing, Rel Capital, Indian Hotel( booked profit in all three) and Added more quantity of HDFC bank, Kotak Bank, L&t, RIL, HUL, Maruti, Ultra tech cement. Only fresh significant addition is HDFC life insurance.

 

I hold the following. Basis of investment is to invest in companies that can grow at 20 - 25 % CAGR for the next 3 yrs. I hold stocks for long term and have no intention to sell for the next 3 years even if there is a crash.

1) Piramal Enterprises
2) Indiabulls Housing
3) Yes Bank
4) REC
5) L&T Finance
6) Automotive Axles
7) Himalya International (Turn around Bet)
8) Zen Technologies
9) Intense Technologies
10) PNB Gilts (every1 makes mistakes )
11) BSE Limited
12) Dilip Builcon

 

My current portfolio constructed in last 3 years.
1.DHFL 2.Canfin Homes 3.Yes Bank 4. DCB Bank 5.KNR Construction 6.TV Today 7. Godrej Properties
8.AB Capital 9. Asian Paints 10.HUDCO 11.DMart 12.CDSL 13.Ujjivan 14.Manpasand Bev. 15.Som Distiliries and 16. Cochin Shipyard 17.PC Jeweller 18. Ambika Cotton
Fresh buying in AB Capital and thinking about increasing my allocation in PC Jeweller and DCB Bank.

 

In spite of all type of uncertainties ,my portfolio continue to perform EXCEEDINGLY WELL.I had complete exit from DHFL and partial exit from Yes bank during last financial year.My Finicial year ending direct stocks portfolio( I have 60 % invested directly in stocks and 40% in mutual funds ),which is highly tilted towards fundamently strong leadership compnies addressing GREAT INDIAN CONSUMERS, is as follows in terms of percentage in portfolio .HDFC BANK 10.6%,ICICI BANK 8.6%,KOTAK BANK 8.2,AXIS 5.5,Indusind bank 4.3%,RBL bank 2. 7,YES BANK 2.1%,DCB bank 1.7%,FEDRAL BANK 1.2%,IDFC BANK AND BANDHAN BANK 0.5 % each,HDFC LIFE 4.2%,ICICI LOMBARD 2.4%,ICICI LIFE 2.4%,L& T FIN 2.0%,HDFC 1.8%,ABFL AND HDFC AMC 0.7% each,RIL 11.7%,L&T 3.6%,HUL 3.3%,ITC 3.5%,DABUR,GODREJCON,MARICO ,BRITANNIA 0.5% each,ASIAN PAINTS 4.3%,ULTRATECH CEMENT 1.1%,HEDILBERG CEMENT 0.4%,INFOSYS 1.1%,TCS 03%,MAHENDRA LOGISTICS 0.7,HEVEELS,VOLTAS,PEDILITE,VARDHMAN TEXT 0.5% each,TITAN 2.7%,AVENUE SUPER MART 1.8 %,SUN PHARMA 0.5%,MARUTI 1.1%.All holding below 1% are just for testing the ground,may go up or down after continuous monitoring of performance of the compnies.I increase holding above 1% only after I am fully convinced about stock meeting my long term investment criteria, which is secular growth of atleast double digit but preferably 15% or more.No recommendation but for discussion.

 

What a dud portfolio.

Might as well buy more of mutual funds. Good mutual funds will out perform you comfortably net of fees.
Better you stop this Kharab active investing Mr. Kharab and just increase our mutual fund holdings

 

Ignore Gaithonde! Just a pompous ass who is frustrated after losing money in stocks. Trying to vent his frustration by giving out unsolicited advice!

 

My "Systematic" Equity Portfolio.
Approach is Number of stocks in folio should be of max 15 and allocation per scrip is any where between 6 to 14 % max. its good to have even equal allocation going forward.
any advice is welcome.

Sector : Auto/Auto ancillary
Balkrishna Induestires

Sector : Banking/Finance
Kotak Mahindra Bank
City Union Bank
Bajaj Finance
HDFC AMC

Sector : Paints
Asian Paints

Sector : Pharma & Healthcare
Biocon

Sector : Power/Generation/Distribution
KEI Industires

Sector : Refineries/Oil-Gas
Reliance Industries

Sector : Retail
Relaxo Footwares

Sector : Specialty Chemicals
Pidilite Industires

 

Excellent choice of stocks is there. All stocks are high quality stock high ROE. How much is return of portfolio in one year and three year if you have calculated.

 

One Year Avg return 34.2
three year avg avg 34

 

My current holding in % of my portfolio is ,Hdfc bank 12.3%,Icici bank 10.8%,kotak bank 9.1% ,axis bank 5.1% ,Dcb bank 1.5%,Federal bank 0.9%,Bandhan bank 0.4%,Hdfc 2.9%,L&t fin 1.1%,Aditya birla capital 0.45%,Hdfc life 6.6% ,icici life 3.2%,Icici LOMBARD 3.1% ,Sbi life 0.5%,Hdfc AMC 2.5%,Nippon AMC 0.6%,Ril 10.7%,Asian paints 4.8%,Berger paint 0.3%,pidlite 0.3%,L&T 3.6%,HUL 3.7%,ITC 2.6%,DABUR 0.56%,MARICO 0.35%,Godrej consumer 0.36,nestle 0.3%,Britania 0.3% ,united spirit 0.3%,Voltas 0.2%,Havells 0.4%,Maruti 1.2%,Ultratech cement 1%,Heidelberg cement 0.5%,Infosys 1%,Tcs 0.8%,Titan 2.8%,Avenue Supermart 2%..My portfolio remains heavily loaded in favour of pvt financials and consumption.