Discussion in 'Ask A Query About Your Stock Picks And Portfolio' started by darth, Feb 16, 2016.
If US increase more production it may nullify this effect , and Iran may not agree with OPEC production cut also ...
may be 40-50 $ above may feel Resistance ...if oil price increase india may be sufferer for trade deficit .... we hope oil price is with in these price levels
Oil does not deserve even this price.Oil producers cost of production is in single digit , they can not keep on squeezing whole world for for a natural resource,which belong to whole manknind.I wish it remain below 20 USD. All talk of negative impact of oil crash on India is wrong..
yes , i wish oil price it remain below 10 USD for next 5 years , and solar technology and world power production increase and further Reasearch is required in solar power or battery cars and scooters sector , if oil price down Indian imports also down and it lead to reduce Indian Trade Deficit .........
Not much to cheer abt in the immediate future.
Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Venezuela and Russia have agreed to freeze the production at the record highs, seen in January(take note, they are not talking abt reducing oil production), if, a pretty strong if, all the stake holders follow suit. Iran, having come just now, out of the sanctions and fighting for its market share has not agreed with this so far. Understandably so.
Practically, it is going to be very difficult for the oil exporting countries to swallow this bitter pill, as they can't let their revenues nosedive further. Not all the oil exporters can operate at the current price levels and some will be forced to close their shops, if the prices remain so low for a prolonged duration. Everyone is prepared to fight till the end, till someone else blinks and stops the supplies.
So, don't see oil prices going up significantly in the near future. The least, one needs to see is some stability in oil prices. Volatility begets volatility and equity markets can't remain insulated from the extreme mood swings of oil market. If the oil producing countries can keep the prices stable, we can rest assured that they have taken the first step in the right direction.
@kharb ji some thing bad about crude price fall is it will
1.shrink global trade significantly which will shrink global gdp
2.corporate profits will drop.
3.investment climate will get freezed like the one we are facing now.
considering these, a minimum crude price of 40-50$ is needed to keep the world trade in balance. other wise one side of world will collapse - the oil producing countries. In the case of India , crude prie fall is definitely positive. but in long term , investment climate should b bouyant to keep india growing with foreign investment. this is only my view may be wrong.
the general perception is tht with freezing oil prdn at january 2016 levels will not help in the price of crude. becoz oil prodn is at record levels than the levels when crude was peaking at 140$. prodn i jan was at 3.23 cr barrels per day which is much more than the demand.
i think for next 2-3 yrs crude will be at lows and india will benefit significantly from that. curren t price of crude is 34.2 $ which is way below last yrs price.
chart of crude price for last 5 yr is below.
Can you back this up with concrete data please
sir that is true patriotic thinking .congrats
just google it ...
at present world situation is " large oil money used in Terrorism & Luxuries purpose " , if solar power genaretes oil war will be vanished , world need oil price down ...
with our peace and it leads to world prosperity directly ...
thank you very much sir
So why don't you google and publish it for the benefit of all in here... Showing that this 'single digit' cost of production is all crap.
I dont need to google it, for i know what the cost of production range is
ok. then what is the cost of production range??
Need to filter the noise....do you see this as a significant step to trigger the rebalancing of the demand vs supply equation? Afterall it involves the two of the top three oil producers in the world. See it as a 'wink' if not a 'blink'
USA oil rigs count is down ( 8 straight weeks now). Bankrupties there are on the rise too.
Google it and paste it
i said first to you to do it.
Too big a question for me to answer. When commerce, politics,Uncle Sam and faith are the stakeholders, it gets murkier and a detailed study is needed to come to a meaningful conclusion, which I haven't done.
Yes, it is a significant step in that direction. It was more of a question of when than if. Saudis were just waiting for the right time to initiate it. Probably the falling USA oil rigs count and increasing bankruptcies are the triggers for acting now.
Would like to know your perspective.
Yes , please note cost of oil production which includes pumping and project cost. These are average of many sources and are based on reliable sources as oil producers never disclose their Loots or Robery. .Arab countries below 10 USD .Saudi and Kuwait 4 to 6 USD ,UAE 7 USD ,Iran and Iraq 10 ranging 9 to 11.Nigeria 15 USD,Russia 10 to 15 USD,Kazikstan 15 USD,Venezuela 20 USD,US around 25USD,Europe and many others around 30 to 45 USD.So present prices have huge profit margins,just fooling world talking about low price.World petroleum economy will do very well even at 20 USD .All above that is Just a Robery or Loot specialy of India.Stone age did not end due to shortage of stones,oil countries must remember to avoid fastening of solar revolution.
Ofcourse yours are reliable sources and the only reliable sources!!! I am not in here to educate people about the cost of crude production. Let them believe what they want to.
My sources are confidential, for I have client confidentiality clauses built into every 'energy sector deals' I have worked on. Credible and often audited figures Anyways i am sure there should be something on the net which will show that
- probably what you quote is a mix of marginal cost and operational cost of production and not the cost of production
- even this is not below 10$ - of the 4 top producers, three as per your own figures are above 10$
Separate names with a comma.