TARGET 2025 - Which are your favourite bets for next ten years

@good stocks right said.

 

Agreed but in our country even a 5000 crore mcap comapny is small cap. Anything below that is micro-cap. So stocks like JB Chem, Century Ply, Repco, HSIL, Heritage are all small cos with good management, track record, low debt, huge scope. Instead of investing in unknown cos it is better to invest in small-cap discovered stocks because there is huge safety of management quality in such stocks. If one is expert he can invest in unknown cos but ordinary investor is better in known cos.

 

Right @Srouta Mukherjee sir. the risk factor is comfortable in known companies.

 

Any fall out of Chenai Flood on Repco.I think real estate market will take serious hit in that metro.

 

sir, i think that chennai impact will be minimal.

 

Karb sir for major decisions like buying house may not be affected by incidents like this. Sentiment and mood will be down for sometime then people will resume daily activities I feel.

 

There are three type of buyers in real estate.One is permanent residents.They will come back after some type.Second is natives of chenai settled in other cities and third is investers in type 2.I think they may become relcutant and fence sitters may defintly decide other wise.I originaly belong to a city in north India in NCR(although now serving elsewhere) ,long back there were flood like situation resulting in cool down in real estate for five years..More over as Repco is serving small ticket size in unorganized sector,people in this Catagry might be hit resulting in stress to Repco in short term.Any way I think Repco home finiance has already hit fresh 52 week low after flood, discounting some portion of my discussion.But yes in long term these things don't matter.

 

My god. That long period?

 

But it is old story,now a days in time of information technology , cycles has become shorter and life has become fast .So things will play down faster.I think paints,ply wood,sanitary and sewrage infra like compnies may get replacement boost.

 

Good point.

 

Add ceremic tiles also as large no of people raise base of their houses after floods.

 

I already have Kajaria Ceramics which is great stock. I am buying on dips. Somany Ceramics is another great stock. Nitco Tiles should be avoided IMHO. Poor quality of management.

 

My top pick for the next 10 years will be Pantaloon Fashion and Retail ltd for those interested in taking nominal risk.

For those seeking ''extremely safe bets'' for the next 10 years my pick will be Tata Global Beverages.
Its foreign acquisitions and Starbucks story will start paying off in due course of time. Its a play on some very good global brands. (Tata Tea, Tetley, Good Earth, Eight 0' Clock, HImalayan Water etc)

Its current profitability is not all that great. But due to this the stock is available at a very cheap valuation. Going forward I think there will be a dual benefit where the absolute earning (EPS) will improve and also the markets will assign it a better PE ratio due to better visibility and better fund flow.

it has been testing patience since a long time but can soon get re-rated once its global brands and Starbucks become mature.

Management quality is no issue. With such a great management and such a strong global brand portfolio, it is sure to suceed. I guess it will offer a lot of downside safety and at the same time make your money grow faster then Bank FD. People seeking 'safety of capital' can consider this company as a better alternative to park their money for the next one decade. Just my personal opinion.

 

@Parin Gala right sir .Both are great , risk free businesses to own, but for very long term.

 

what s your view on Prozone Intu properties? Rakesh Jhunjunwala s holding it...their business plan seems to be good...plzz someone advice me on this

 

I am some how being attracted by Pantaloon fashions ,want more inputs by dear members before taking a call .Tata Globel I had for last three years on same assumtions but sold recently ,proved like Foot of Angad in Ramayana.

 

It has tested patience since a long time. People have almost given hope on it. But it was because the company was more focussed on expansion and growth rather than profitability. The next 10 years will see the profitability of its recent acquisitions. Re-rating is imminent. Some more patience reqd.

 

I have never tracked Tata Global apart from the oft repeated cry that it failed to deliver or live up to potential/expectations. So could you kindly elaborate a couple of points (i) did the markets give a thumbs down to the company's expansion and growth initiatives? If yes why? (ii) were recent acquisitions unprofitable when acquired and/or what drives up the profitability of these acquisitions

Thanks in advance

 

The company has been acquiring many global brands as a part of its expansion and growth initiative. Which resulted in a dented profitability. Unfortunately the markets did give a thumbs down to the growth and expansion initiatives of the company. Because most so called investors are interested in current profitability rather than future synergies and operational leverage.

Going forward the brands acquired will result in better operational leverage resulting in improved fund flows. Profitibity will thus improve. Stock is trading at cheap valuations due to the low interest among traders and investors due to low profitability currently.

In my personal opinion the maturity of its brands like Starbucks and some of its global brands like Tetley etc will result in improved visibility and markets will hopefully assign it a better valuation multiple.

Re-rating is imminent. Downside risk is capped. Patience is required. ​