TARGET 2025 - Which are your favourite bets for next ten years

Rerating is imminent - do you have any inside info?

Future performance ( both growth and sustainability) is a major dertiminent of stock prices. So its not that low valuations is due to low profitability. It could be due to an expectation that this is the likely scenario in the coming next couple of years atleast. This could also explain the low interest of traders and investors in the stock currently. So isnt it better to wait till the first signs of change?

Btw do metals and commodity stocks feature in your Target 2025?

 

100% Agreed. All stock picking is like that only. But why you said that you will not wait in Heritage Foods because you have trading opportunities where you can make more and here you say Patience is required?

In case of Heritage Foods, there is track record of delivery (stock market gains) and well-known investors and research house are bullish and there are targets of 6-bagger by year 2020 (on basis that stock is undervalued compared to Hatsun Agro) while TGBL has no such track record then is it not better to bet on Heritage instead of TGBL?

One point is political risk is there in Heritage (AP CM CB Naidu is promoter) such risk is absent in TGBL. But barring that all points are in favour of Heritage IMHO.

 

Here is analysis by SP Tulsian about Heritage Foods

SP Tulsian of sptulsian.com told CNBC-TV18, " Heritage Foods is a company promoted by N. Chandrababu Naidu family, the Andhra Pradesh (AP) Chief Minister and if you see the promoter stake of 40 percent, 33 percent is held by his wife and his son."

"They have predominantly presence in the dairy segment. They process about may be 10 lakh litre of milk per day. They have presence in nine state but in five states they have a predominant positions mainly the southern states. If you see their 150 centres for the chilling, packaging, procuring and all that are giving them a good business."

"In the first half they had a topline of Rs 1,165 crore against FY15's Rs 2,070 crore. So, you can say that there was a growth of about 10 percent on that topline. One can understand that- that kind of growth is normal. The operating profit margin has risen from 2.3 percent to 4 percent. Because of that the operating profit has risen to Rs 46 crore in first half against Rs 48 crore for whole of FY15."

"The profit after tax (PAT) also has risen to Rs 26 crore for first half against Rs 28 crore for the whole of FY15. That means they have achieved the bottomline what they have achieved in the full year in the first six months itself resulting in to an earnings per share (EPS) of 11.2 against 12.2 of FY15. So, that is I am expecting an EPS of closure to about Rs 25 because the winter season is again good for the milk industries and all that," he added.

"Apart from that they have 92 retail stores in the southern states mainly into Tamil Nadu, Telegana and Karnataka. They are expanding their footprints in others states as well - the other two or three states may be like Kerala or may be like Andhra all that. However, they have, as I said in the milk business they have presence in nine states. They have presence in Maharashtra, they have presence in Rajasthan, so may be but I am not banking too much on the retail at the current level."

"Come on the financial position, if you see equities quite low at Rs 23 crore, debt is just Rs 40 crore on a net worth of at about may be Rs 220 crore. That Rs 40 crore debt also is largely for the working capital. Come on the comparable peers, as I said Rs 24-25 is the expectation of EPS for FY16, so ruling at a PE multiple of about Rs 20. The comparable peer is Hatsun Agro Products, having the similar topline, similar kind of profitability, that is ruling at a PE multiple of a Rs 40. So, I think that stock holds quite a good promises."

"If you see the recently Chief Minister of Andhra Pradesh Chandrababu Naidu met with Australian Minister who has agreed to provide the support in dairy and fishing in the state of Andhra Pradesh. If they provide that kind of support obviously this company will be seen beneficiary. I am not trying to connect any political to my list to give this purely on the fundamental. So, taking this into consideration share is now ruling at Rs 525. One can look for six months target at Rs 675 though this qualifies as a portfolio stock may be with a view of couple of years as well," he added.

Read more at: https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/s...p-tulsian_4563321.html?utm_source=ref_article

 

I am not invested in TaGlBev nor I intend to buy it. I am happy with my core portfolio and my trading.

I have mentioned the stock only for those people who want very safe stock for next 10 years with limited downside and with reasonable appreciation.

It is just an idea for others who are very safe players. Because generally when people invest for 10 years, most of them seek very stable stocks.

There is no comparison between Heritage and TaGlBev. Heritage is also a good company. But it has run up a lot on recent days due to news of some investor buying stake in it and its a potential multibagger. A lot of expectation has been built into the stock.

If it disappoints in its results it can do down a lot. On the other hand TaGlBev is trading at very bottom levels because of lack of expectation. So there the downside risk is very less.

Therefore, even though I also like Heritage I would suggest long term investors to go for TaGlBev. Just my personal view.

I clearly mentioned in my first message that my top pick for 10 yrs is PFRL. But only for those investors who want a very safe stock my pick for such investors is TaGlBev

 

Now it makes sense. I got confused.

Agreed. TGBL is like Blue Chip of Tata Management. Safety of principal is there.

 

smfh at this comparison of a Tata group company with Heritage Foods and saying it has "no such track record" because well known investors and research houses aren't bullish on it?

i mean it's okay if you like X stock because XYZ well known investors you like and follow are shilling it as the next 6 bagger, but be realistic

Tata Global is easily the largest tea company in India. Owns marquee brands. Global presence.They realigned the business in the recent years and are going through a transformation after all the acquisitions

that is just called shilling, not putting your money but selling it to others

it is like those analysts/experts on TV - disclosure - hold nothing

 

Sir you are very strict buy you are also right. In valuepickr such post would get banned we have to be careful also.

 

Srouta please don't Sire me. I'm not strict but rather straight forward or blunt. I hope you understand my idea behind the post and don't take offense. My idea is simple - my money is where my mouth is. If I won't buy a certain stock, won't even go on selling it to others.

Read that technical report on Heritage, the guy got lucky with Rajesh Exports because there were material developments for the company. Valcambi (revenues ~ USD 38 billion) acquisition. I think we talked about this in one of your threads. It was only the 2 of us.

Again, I'll apologise if my post/s is/are offensive.

ValuePickr - registered there around the same time as this forum, found it to be informative but a society of mutual appreciation (not saying the real word because it lacks decency)

 

I am.not interested in "selling" any stock to anyone since I will not get anything by doing so.
I just highlighted the stock for those who want a safe bet for the next ten years.
The analysts on TV who say disclosure- hold nothing get paid some fees for talking about that stock. Here I am not getting anything. In fact I am spending by means of internet charges.
Since the thread is about picking your fav stocks for next decade I am giving my opinion.
We all are giving our opinion and stock picks here. We do not get anything if someone buys our suggested stock nor we lose anything if no one buys our suggested stock.

 

Agreed one has to be careful not get carried away.

 

Yes Dear Parin Gala,any body may have 20 stocks in portfolio ,but certainly can have views on many more.You have rightly disclosed it also .All of us have political views,but every one don't fight Election.We can have just views also.

 

We are getting "likes" lol
i really find those experts' disclosures amusing

personally, i'd feel terrible if somebody bought something after listening to me - when it is my money, i don't care, that is why i don't have wealth
i'd keep buying things i've never used and it is as good as money down the drain

 

Which stocks i can bet sir? which ones do you like?

 

are you bullish on prozone?

 

Sold ard 118

 

PFRL finding resistance ard 240, if cleared can see higher levels

 

PFRL looking good for 241

 

PFRL figured in 20th Wealth Creation Study of Motilal Oswal

 

@BobmayBoy, I don't agree that you need to feel terrible when some one buy after listening you.Any body who buy after listening any body,certainly reprocess the information .If after that he also come to same conclusion as you then he might buy it.After that,He certainly know ,what he is doing.I most of the time find your posts informative. and useful.You are certainly a wise invester.Those who follow other views and recommendation blindly with out reprocessing the information,should not do it.Either they should learn to analysis the information given by others or should invest through top rated mutual funds.

 

I meant TG B Hotels