Views

Conclusion: -

1. Reduce exposure to share market. (Threat of global recession)
2. Avoid investment in steel, non-ferrous metal, chemical and plastic companies. (Curse of marginal cost)

 

And at Davos 2016, Bob Diamond, one time star banker at Barclays Plc, Today had this to say about liquidity :

new regulations brought in since 2008 aren’t helping to calm the markets:

“A lot of people are taking about where is the liquidity, where are the buyers? Basel three, Volcker rule, ring fenced banks, buffer upon buffer of capital. Are we surprised there is less liquidity from the banks?”

 

WEF, Davos is such a sham - they want to show that while sitting in the lap of luxury in the Swiss Alps, they are tackling the problems which will affect the other 90%

 

Thanks for sharing. Do you think we should reduce our investment in share market?

 

i can't say for everyone but my actions are pretty much what you've read here and i will only increase exposure to equity in the coming few months

reduce if you can book losses and move on or hang in with a hope and a prayer that the tide will change (especially if you're following the wizards/gurus or if you're subscribed to some advisory - what are they suggesting now?)

not selling anything that we own but not committing any significant funds to new purchases either, fortunately, didn't commit a significant amount in December 2015 and will wait for opportune time to enter irrespective of any value traps that emerge now

 

All those doing negative predictions presently were in front to make excesses,So they must be knowing the exact excesses .But I heard such noises so many times.These are relevant for only Devolped economies .Indian is more of a domestic Economy with 1.3 billion consumers, which can take care of Indian growth for next 25 years.These are just market actions to come to mean avarage returns as per growth of compnies ies.So when market moves fast ,it has to retrace back to average out excesses.But long term journey continues Market will give 15% plus return in long term for next 25 years.I expect Sensex to kiss 100000 in next 12 years plus minus 2. So if we remain invested in Nifty or Sensex minus metals,commodities,airlines,utilities ,PSU we can make 18% return for next 25 years

 

You have a point there. But for that GST must be passed. Earlier NaMo,Sushma, Jaitley made sure that GST is not passed. Now RaGa, SoGa and Kharge will make sure that GST is not passed. Revenge will breed revenge and we will suffer. Also Indian people elect politicians like Lalu in spite of what he has done. Not sure if we really deserve progress. So I do not think that Nifty will reach 100000. But I think some individual companies have potential for growth irrespective of economic condition and if we buy at right price then we may earn 18% returns.

 

Can you name stocks suggestion? I think Bajaj Finance, TCI, CAPF, Heritage Foods, Nitin Spinner is in this club.

 

@San8422-You have raised the right question. This is the exact reason of hitting sensex 100000 in 12 years If all would have been well,who knows we might have been sitting at 100000 today. Who knows our society believes in Slow and steady wins the race .

 

1. Wonderla is excellent company but it is in amusement park business so fear of government imposing more taxes. So I will wait till budget is over.

2. Karur Vyasya bank very good but for some time I will stay away from banking stocks.

3. Infosys looks good. I will have to study more (Sikka's Vision 2020, transformation in IT etc...) before investing.

4. Jamna Auto seems great. I have invested and I will hold it.

5. I wanted to sell RIL but could not get required price (Rs 1100). I will hold RIL even if it crosses Rs 1100.(due to lack of other options).

6. New IPO coming: - Precision Camshaft. I will apply.

https://economictimes.indiatimes.co...put-it-on-your-radar/articleshow/50661917.cms

 

Problem is also there from Chennai floods. Public was not in mood for spending on amusement park so results may be poor.

 

Optimism isnt injurous to health ( at least until reality hits ) while pessimism is. So lets remain optimistic. Afterall someone has correctly said - at the end of it all : Health is Wealth.

A few observations on your thread though kharb :
- our esteemed FM now says our economy can grown 8% in a 'friendly global environment' which unfortunately isnt likely to be the case for some time to come. Surely his team has assessed and informed him the % in a hostile (volatile, slowgrowth, deflationary) global environment. He should state that too. has a lot been said through this subtle change in stance when until november his statements on the indian economy read something like 'its insulated from the global slowdown'
- i suppose you meant 1.3billion population and not consumers. Is ~300 million under BPL a consumer target segment of any private sector?
- developed world problems : interestingly from what i read large parts of this world (US and Eurozone) happens to be on the road to recovery ( unless there has been a reversal).
- The sub-prime/2008 was also a developed world problem. Repercussions resonated worldwide including India. But back then EM's were part of the solution. This time, if indeed there is a problem that developed world faces ( if the voices of the many emminent economists, investors etc is to be believed), EM's are a part of the problem.

But like I said before, lets remain optimistic about the future, our stock markets and resilience of our economy. Optimism ----> good health ------> long life ------> we are alive when our sensex hits 100k in 8-12 yrs timeband to importantly enjoy our wealth creation

 

Well, some interesting discussion up there.

I don't mean to sound pessimistic but what does that data suggest? Then there's again the thought - "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics."

Demographics - when I was studying, the textbooks said ~ 67-68% of India lives in the rural areas. Just looked it up and The World Bank data shows it at 68% for the current century. No change at all. But look around, you see people flocking to cities in search of a better livelihood. How much of the population is unproductive? What's with the current social trends of late marriages & DINKs Double Income No Kids?

The PM is an excellent salesman. Govt schemes - named after a family or any other name, are populist measures and bound to fail.

It looks just like India Shining - भारत उदय once again.

You want to enjoy the gains from globalization and wealth created in the process, but, when the going gets tough - just dismiss it as "developed world" problems. In many a things, we aren't better off than a 3rd world country.

I don't know if you see a drastically different India & world since the change of the century, I certainly do. And believe it or not, our fates are intertwined.

 

I am just trying hard to be a optimist at the moment.... Health is wealth

 

I'm thankful to PE & it's subscribers to keep me amused. Also the buy Indiabulls Wholesale & Ujaas. I've sold everything and bought those two

 

What is PE?

 

Prudent Equity - some advisory

 

Thanks I will stay away from them.

 

Arent you reading the great PE tamasha tread under stock advisory

 

It is getting too much for tolerance now. I think PE should settle with subscriber by refunding. It is only Rs. 20,000 at stake.