Which Sector and Stock to focus on ... my bets

Discussion in 'Ask A Query About Your Stock Picks And Portfolio' started by ayan.ghosh, Apr 18, 2015.

  1. ayan.ghosh

    ayan.ghosh New Member

    Mar 21, 2015
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    Hello All,

    I have been a silent spectator for some time ... Have missed several picks but have also profited from some ...
    Recently sold off Kitex ( booking 50% profit ... it has come down a bit ) ... There are several links for Kitex ... I felt the initiating coverage note from Motilal Oswal and the fact that Prf. Sanjay Bakshi has recommended the same makes it a wonderful story) ... Hoping to pick up the stock at lower level around 650-670 ... what are your opinions about the same ?

    So, # 1 Kitex
    No. 2 ... Torrent Pharma ... Booked 15% profit ... Pharma stocks are under the hammer ...hoping to pick it up at around 1200 ... There's a centrum report detailing the same

    So # 2 Torrent Pharma

    Granules ... there is wonderful collection of reports in this very site ... very good stock ... i believe this quarters results would be great ... better results as per the MD would be next 2 years .. have sold my holding @ Rs. 101 booking 16% profit ... will enter around 90-95

    So # 3 Granules India

    Aurobindo Pharma ... There is a thread in this forum which talks a load about the company .. I am super bullish about the stock ... am invested @ 1320 ... there was profit booking in the stock ...good scope for all to enter ... Lots of approvals pending for the stock ... On the flip side might post bad results

    So # 4 Aurobindo Pharma

    I have other stocks like,
    a. Axis Bank b. SBI c. HSIL d. HCL e. Snowman f. Apollo Tyres

    Will discuss about the stocks in some other post...

    Am looking to invest in 2 other stocks.. i am in a spot of bother for the choice ... the stocks are :
    1. Thomas Cook or Cox & King
    2. Essel Propack
    3. Idea Cellular
    4. Dewan Housing or Chola Finance or Capital First
    5. Glenmark Pharma or Cipla or (Lupin...I believe there will be a bounce ... only for very short term
    6. Ramkrishna Forgings or Century Ply or Star Ferro Cement (Great Q4 results expected)

    Or, any other small cap or mid cap stock ... for 2-3 months

    Will post about the details of the companies in follow-up posts ... Hoping for some inputs from all... cheers!!!!

  2. Srouta Mukherjee

    Srouta Mukherjee Well-Known Member

    Mar 28, 2015
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    Good stocks selection. Kitex is very good stock but is it not overpriced? The PE is 35 and it is a small cap stock. I also missed it. Feeling worried about valuations. Granules and Aurobindo Pharma are safe stocks I feel. Dewan Housing and Century Ply and Capital First are also good stocks to keep in long-term portfolio.

    Howe do you time your sales so perfectly that you can book profit. When I sell the stock price always rises When I buy the stock price falls ;)
  3. abhiarps

    abhiarps New Member

    Mar 27, 2015
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    if I had to make a choice then :
    Thomas cook instead of cox
    Lupin isn't that interesting but glenmark would be my pick..quality stock and moreover all its peers have enhanced much more and I think with earnings improving and other approvals coming it should test 1100 levels very soon.
    Well in the NBFC stream...safest bet would be chola..you can buy on dips and their business is very much related to Commercial Vehicles. so a turnaround story in CV would benefit chola
    I really dont track Cap first but with regards to Dewan i would like to say: it is very attractively priced, valuations supportive..going ahead it has great future as they are targeting the upper middle-class segment..the only flip side is: it is highly leveraged.. so of u have good risk appetite then go for dewan...and i see a bit more correction happening in this but it has great future.
    With regards to century i would like to say that it is already trasing at 40 PE and with high debt equity ratio...i think the price u pay for this doea not support the fundamentals... i find it highly overpriced...instead go for Greenply..i expect minimum 40-50% in current levels in 6-8 months and trades at around 20pe and it ia also a market leader...
    and instead of star ferro(because it is trading at vry high PE) you can look for saurastra cement....it is trading at low pe ...due to well reasons because it is not cash rich and poor working cap but with going ahead i see a great turnaround happening here...if you are patient enough to hold for 1-2 years then it can also be a five bagger as the management is looking very aggressive in improving the financial health of company
  4. ayan.ghosh

    ayan.ghosh New Member

    Mar 21, 2015
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    GST Bill will be tabled tomorrow and there might be some development around that ... The Logistics stocks are up ...

    My Pick ... Snowman Logistics ...


    I also added Axis Bank ... long term bet :) might give a rally ... retail focussed bank and also the FII thing similar to YES Bank 8)

    Am stuck with HSIL ... folks what do you say ....

    Anyways ... I made some money out of Glenmark and Sun Pharma .... some intraday rally 8) and thanks to Mohnish Bhai ... RAIN Industries ... 20% in a week ... 8)

    Would suggest people to avoid Sun Pharma for the moment ... the synergy with Ranbaxy needs to be watched and also there is some negative hang over the daichi thing .. would like to enter around 880-900 :)

    GLENMARK : 880-920 range is great ... would give a rally if it breaks 920 with volume ...fundamentally debt is the only issue which will be much lower :)

    My picks in Pharma : a. Aurobindo b. Glenmark c. DRL ( hasn't given much upside movement last year ...awaited )

    Like I suggested KPIT has found support around 150 ... its 52W low is at 142 .... KPIT might give a short rally on bounce :) i don't hold any share .... mere pass HCL hai ...great level to get in HCL :)

    Granules : would enter again at 85-88 :) results on Monday ... think they would give decent result ...nothing great ...

    I am holding some cash in hand ...looking for some opportunity ...

    O1. BK Birla Group companies - demerger etc
    O2. GST
    O3. don't know ... may be gabriel/ultramarine

    Last thought before i go to sleep ... MAT wala issue would be resolved next week ...so the trend of the market would be decided next week ... tab tak ... results
  5. vprajesh25

    vprajesh25 New Member

    Apr 21, 2015
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    Dear.. What about ITD Cementation and IPCA lab? ITD Cementation's earning visibility is better with their good order book and a debt free company. IPCA will definitely will come out all these mess. I remember Aurobindo going through the same 6 years back with their price touching nearly 80 bucks. Look at the same script now. 15 times in just six years. Rajesh
  6. ayan.ghosh

    ayan.ghosh New Member

    Mar 21, 2015
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    Ran a filter in screener.com....


    Please suggest any picks from the screen ...
    the conditions were:

    Promoter holding >51 AND
    Sales growth > 15 AND
    Interest Coverage > 3 AND
    Sales growth > 12% AND
    Return on invested capital > 12% AND
    Debt to equity <1 AND
    Debt To Profit < 3 AND
    Return on equity > 15% AND
    Price to Earning < Industry PE AND
    EPS > 0 AND
    Sales growth < Profit growth AND
    Price to Earning < 25

    The filter results:

    1. Waterbase Ltd. = Operator driven = 50 to 60 is the range
    2. Umang Dairies Ltd.
    3. IFB Agro Industries Limited
    4. Indo Borax & Chemicals Ltd.
    5. Anuh Pharma Ltd.
    6. Bharat Immunologicals & Biologicals Corporation Ltd.
    7. Nesco Limited
    8. ABM Knowledgeware Ltd.
    9. NMDC Limited = Dividend yield and commodity cycle reversal
    10. Ratnamani Metals & Tubes Limited = I have seen a edelwiess report praising the stock
    11. Premco Global Ltd.
    12. Ultramarine & Pigments Ltd. = How is this one?
    13. Control Print Ltd.
    14. Kesar Terminals & Infrastructure Limited
    15. TV Today Network Limited
    16. SNL Bearings Ltd.

    Folks suggestions???

    I had run a less stricter screen without the sales growth > 25% ...it had other names including Gabriel India ... Is it a good level to enter Gabriel India ... it has a support at 75-80 level ...
  7. Parin Gala

    Parin Gala A long term investor

    Mar 19, 2015
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    I have been holding Nesco since last 7 years. I stay quite nearby to it. Its main highlight is the huge land bank where it has made a nice dome and lets it out for some high level business fairs. Business fairs and exhibitions are held throughout the year at this land. Thus the income is sustainable. My money is multiplied in the last 7 years but I think its still a great story considering the unique land bank it has.
  8. Meenakshi Razdan

    Meenakshi Razdan Administrator Staff Member Moderator

    Mar 19, 2015
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    Nice. The stocks that I am familiar with are Nesco Limited, Ratnamani Metals & Tubes Limited and TV Today Network Limited.

    Nesco appears to be a good buy if you are a reasonably cautious investor, looking for a good quality stock. The only problem is that the slowdown in the realty sector means that they may be unable to find occupants for the building and/ or get appropriate rentals. The other issue is that there appears to be a new exhibition cum convention centre being developed by RIL at BKC. The convention centre is scheduled to be up and running in the next couple of years (2017 as per the report) (see link at valuepickr). This may put some pressure on the stock.

    As regards Ratnamani Metals, there is an elaborate initiating coverage report by Centrum. Nalanda Capital is one of the major investors of the stock. Another stock is the same/ similar field is APL Apollo Tubes. The stock has witnessed a lot of fund buying from HDFC Mutual Fund. The drawback of Ratnamani and APL Apollo is that they are dependent on heavy capex spending. If there is a slowdown in the economy, they would be among the first to suffer.

    TV Today is expected to benefit from the digitization. If that comes through, TV Today could be a big winner. It’s major shareholders are Radhakishan Damani and Ramesh Damani. The 12 minute ad-cap row could, however, queer the pitch for the stock if the verdict goes against the company.

    There is an initiating coverage report on Gabriel by Karvy. The report states that Gabriel is a market leader with strong presence in the shock-absorbers and front forks segment in the country. It has over 78% market share in commercial vehicles, 28% in passenger vehicles, 22% in 2/3 wheelers and over 51% in the after sales segment.

    Another report in BL adds that the fall in the stock price offers an attractive entry point and that the company’s market leadership and diversified clientele provide good visibility to earnings growth over the next two-three years.