I also visited the blog for the same reason, and it looks like pressure on margins is definitely a factor. Another possible reason could be the backward integration by key customers. I’ll need to go through the transcript. Their revenue concentration for the top 5 customers is 22%, so if one of these top 5 customers is engaging in backward integration, the thesis may not play out well.
Posts in category Value Pickr
Everest Kanto Cylinders Ltd. – A long runway ahead! (14-08-2024)
- Consolidated revenues increased by 28% Y-o-Y in Q1 FY25, driven by a steady increase
in demand across both our domestic and international markets - CNG segment sales volume reported a YoY and QoQ increase, making a strong
contribution to the overall results - USA business up 63% to
Rs.90cr, India up 18% to Rs.196cr, UAE up 6% to Rs.52cr. - Consolidated PAT stood at Rs. 28 crore. Key factor here could be deferred tax.
Piccadily Agro Industries Ltd (14-08-2024)
@venkatesh_G1 – The news you posted earlier is partially correct. Piccadily is included in MSCI India Domestic Smallcap Index. Link to MSCI site.
Piccadily Agro Industries Ltd (14-08-2024)
I am not sure what happened to Kamet … it has simply vanished from the product list. True,It was a jointly produced brand but it was an award winning brand and they were producing it as much as Indri till last year ,going by old annual reports .Maybe they switched supplies of aged malt to Indri ,when it got famous. Also 253 cases of CAMIKARA was produced in FY23 and they used to sell other cheap rums in huge quantities then and even cheap rums need some aging. It’s also available in one or two online sites and apparently in Spencer’s in Kolkata. I will not be very surprised if Camikara 3 year version is very available by this Diwali …
Disc. Invested and largest position still.
Prevest Denpro Limited (14-08-2024)
Main point of revenue on a small base not growing – 100% I was wondering the same few quarters post IPO as well. Their market share is low single digits and so definitely a huge opportunity – domestically and internationally. 20 years in the industry and they have not grown that share significantly – either grabbing market share in dentistry is difficult or they have not cracked the business yet.
They seem to focus a lot more on the international business which requires more certifications and accreditations and is higher cost, higher margin business. And they work across so many countries with a small sales and marketing team so they would be spread thin.
A possible rethink on their go to market strategy for growth is essential I believe – the S-I-L has his task cut out!
Singer – Possible turnaround a.k.a. Symphony (14-08-2024)
Quote” At an investment of only Rs, 15 lacs, production capacity will be increased from 90,000 units to 6,30,000″ Unquote
1 Singer is essentially outsourcing part manufacturing/assemblies to the coveted sewing machines. The company had invested in developing its marketing muscle, when it entered consumer electricals, encashing its great brand name.
2 Culturally, the place for supporting a sewing machine in a house has been done away with, explainable with many options viz change of preference from tailored clothes to the readymade, lack of space and time with the homemakers, shifting hobbies, fashions – which calls for more tolerance of deviations. And above all, the availability of smaller-sized innovated products which can handle small and emergent work. That says it all for the Domestic part of Singer’s market. The commercial market was hitherto kicked off due to the government’s indifference, the erstwhile textile strike, and the costing issues etc.
For the sake of the company and the shareholders, pray for a revival in the garment stitching from the country so that much of the increased capacity of these 6,30,000 units is consumed.
Piccadily Agro Industries Ltd (14-08-2024)
From presentation we know that company has 45,000 barrels. I am trying to calculate how many cases of Indri Whiskey can be produced in these many barrels.
I am assuming the following –
- Barrel Capacity: 200 liters per barrel.
- Angel’s Share: Assume 30% total loss over the maturation period.
- Cask Strength: 60% ABV in the barrel.
- Bottling Strength: 40% ABV in the bottle.
1. Total Initial Volume of Whisky:
- Total Volume in Barrels:
Total Volume = 45,000 barrels × 200 liters per barrel = 9,000,000 liters
2. Adjust for Angel’s Share:
- Volume After Angel’s Share (assuming a 30% loss):
Volume After Angel’s Share = 9,000,000 × (1−0.30) = 6,300,000 liters
3. Adjust for Dilution from Cask Strength to Bottling Strength:
- Dilution Factor: The whisky is diluted from 60% ABV to 40% ABV, which means the volume increases by 50%.
Volume After Dilution = 6,300,000×1.5=9,450,000 liters
4. Convert Volume to Cases:
- Bottle Size: 0.75 liters (750 ml) per bottle.
- Bottles per Case: 12 bottles per case.
- Total Number of Bottles:
Total Bottles = 9,450,000 liters / 0.75 liters per bottle = 12,600,000 bottles
- Total Number of Cases:
Total Cases = 12,600,000 bottles / 12 bottles per case = 1,050,000 cases
Therefore even if they sell 1,00,000 cases of Indri whiskey, they have capacity for 10 years. I think this is the reason Malt is sold. They have access capacity.
Now further increase in capacity of Malt from present 12kL/day to 30kL/day in Sep-Oct will only increase the revenue by selling malt.
According to their FY23 annual report ( they have still not published annual report for FY24) the sale of the company is (cases) –
Golden wings whisky - 8,315
Whistler whiskey - 49,371
Kamet (single malt) - 3,912
Indri trini - 15,145
Camikara rum - 253
Royal highland - 432
Whistler was their highest selling whiskey in terms of number of cases. What happened to this whiskey, this quarter?
Also @anon do they take the ethanol sale in distillery division or sugar division?
Monthly Income Plan for 76 year old (14-08-2024)
If you sell equity / MF in large amounts, govt will take 10% LTCG tax for the duration after 2018.
Personally I would take the least-change approach. I would do regular partial withdrawal manually on a quarterly or yearly basis as needed, retaining the balance in the existing portfolio.
VP Cyclicals 2.0: Cement Industry Key Issues & Cyclicality (14-08-2024)
With two large players looking to grab market share, I assume somewhere down the line, all these investments will have to make sense from an RoIC level. What one can clearly interpret from the situation on ground is that there might be a vested interest to keep prices so low so that the smaller players face financial duress and hence, pull the plug on capex/or even look to get acquired (Penna for ex, some others in progres.) Once the industry is consolidated to a fair degree (infact the top 2 players are now nearing 40% of industry capacity) , pricing discipline would ensue, much like the Telecom cycle played out?