Hi @ayushmit and screener team

Can you look to add Beneish M-score in screener

Hello community,

I’ve been involved with the markets for quite some time now. Started my journey with the help of tips and advices here and then. Initially things were going great. It was a great year to begin too, beginners luck that roped me in completely. Then started following the market more. Got into technical analysis. Got into F&O. Long story short made a lot of losses there.

In hindsight it was a combination of lack of discipline, poor risk management, poor position sizing and the biggest reasons - being too reckless and feeling I know too much. And then towards the fag end of that phase the baggage of all the failures made be perform even worse. Certain learning don’t come without a price I guess. My losses made me introspect and realise my mindset flaws and market was the boss. No point questioning it.

I don’t want to go back to that route again in my life. I still believe there’s good wealth that can be built by investing in the markets. And
I want to focus on long term portfolio. And I wanted to do it in the right way.

One of the things I realised through my journey is a lot of things depend on the approach and mindset. The differentiating factor between successful and unsuccessful people. Even though both try equally hard some times.

I request you all to share your thoughts with respect to what I’m mentioned below. Other wisdom is also highly appreciated.

Themes I’m betting on

1. China + 1
2. India Consumption story
3. PLI

My concerns

1. While getting trying to get exposure in a sector. How many companies should the investment be broken down into? E.g for chemical sector should one attempt to pick up. 2 companies or 4?
2. And within that sector what should be the approach? Should one have exposure in the market leader too? Or just focus on niche pockets
3. Should companies that are claiming 25-30% CAGR growth over the next 3-5 years be bought even if their PE is high?
4. How to decide when it’s a good time to start buying? And should the investment be done in 2-3 trenches or in one go?

Thank you, very helpful Chandra.

Other key qualitative points are:

1. Looks like it’s clear that the elder & younger brothers would take Sugar & Turbines respectively. I think the group itself is gearing for the upcoming gross fixed formation opportunity in India plus international business.

2. I think it takes a lot of confidence to amicably part ways with a behemoth & venture on its own. I think it stems from the R&D work Triveni is doing in-house which Nikhil is alluding to multiple times.

3. Nikhil was quite clear the opportunity in services & maintenance area. With the recent win (lower margins), they can venture into >100 MW area in this segment.

4. The other parameters like Cash rich, decent return ratios (in a down cycle), premium valuations (cause & effect), up cycle, promoter education background, small-cap are all pointing to positive views.

5. Technically, the stock is at all time highs in this scary environment is reminiscent of consumer stocks in 2012-2013 time which went on to create wealth over the next decade.

Capital goods is something I too never invested, so quite challenging to get a grip & build conviction. How ever, I think it is worth the time now.

On your IndiaMart AGM post, I’m in split minds on management. They come across as hardworking & decent corporate governance but some irritants remain. Probably, being new to stock markets make them jittery? I somehow did not like their minority investments strategy at all. But their presence through main business app IndiaMart is tough to ignore. With the sudden jump in quarterly subscriptions in 10000 range, I think it’s their sales team on steroids rather than genuine demand on the ground from MSMEs. In last concall for a question on what limits them to achieve 30% plus growth, if I hear correctly, Dinesh Agarwal said, “my bandwidth”! I did not like this. He should be able to recruit top talent and empower them to achieve targets rather than try to be one man show.

In the above interview, both the brothers gave lofty targets which were not at all achieved. Probably, we should give benefit of doubt as the external environment was not conducive? But something that needs monitoring if they are on track or not.

Some resources (you might have already gone through):

Good interview:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-10-27/indian-steam-turbine-maker-sees-demand-fueling-order-growth

Ardian seems to be looking for a buyer.
https://www.unquote.com/france/news/3027704/ardian-readies-engineering-and-consultancy-group-expleo-for-sale

Hi,

Thanks for the questions, will try to answer as best as I can.

Their Annual Report quotes from McCoy Reports which says that the global market for 5-100 MW segment has increased from 8.9 GW in 2012 to 11.7 GW in 2021, which is an annual increase of 3% over a period of 9 years. I am not sure how much this translates into in terms of dollars. This does not cover the below-5 MW segment in which the company operates, and for which I think no proper data is available. Broadly, the company says the market for large turbines (>100 MW) has declined in the past decade but that for smaller turbines is steady or growing slowly.

In India, I understand Siemens is the main domestic competitor though not a comparable company since Siemens does many other things also. International players which operate in this segment are GE, Siemens, Mitsubishi, MAN, Baker Hughes, Solar Turbines, Ansaldo, and Elliott. Frankly, I haven’t gone to the extent of analyzing the competition to have a more detailed perspective.

It must be highly cyclical no doubt, but I think the Ukraine war and the ensuing crisis is forcing the whole world to take a close hard look at its energy costs. This includes not only industry but also governments and municipalities. We are still in the middle of this, don’t know where it will end but hopefully the current upswing will last longer than normal economic cycles.

Renewables are a huge opportunity. It was already in an upswing as part of the broader ESG trend last two years, the company’s order book (pre-Ukraine war) was probably a reflection of that. The Ukraine war fallout will give it further impetus. This factor, is in addition to the sudden increase in TAM thanks to the GE settlement should move the company into a new orbit. That is the main investment thesis here.

I hope these answers suffice. For me also, this is the first and only investment in the capital goods / power / infra sector, so I am also trying to learn more.