The calculation is a rough estimate. This is how I calculated it:

• Create a list of all currently listed BSE stocks. So there is survival bias - I dont look at companies which disappeared, but they may not have contributed much to BSE market cap.
• Fetch market cap stock price history from BSE. BSE provides quotes adjusted for splits/bonus.
• Average stock prices across the year to get an annual price for stock. (AnnualPrice/CurrentPrice)*MktCap should give historical market-cap measure.
• For each year, add all marketcap grouped by sector and represent as a percentage.
• Plot

Beyond survival bias, there are some problems with the data

• Like @lustkills mentioned, the right category for any stock is unclear. I did some cleaning on my own but it is grossly inadequate.
• Convertible receipts like ADRs are not something I can handle. So I just ignore it

I spent some time looking at the numbers and I see two broad trends - Consumption cycles and Investment cycles. It is my personal opinion that this is the start of an investment cycles (with many false starts and delays). Each cycle then breaks down further into a few sub-cycles. Unfortunately there isn't enough data to make a definitive statement.

Nice strategy,
What method do you follow to choose the contracts? and the weighing scheme?

BTW, I personally your method is far more efficient than leveraged ETFs. The only problem is the rollover cost as 3 month futures aren't necessarily the most liquid. Might actually be better to use monthly contracts. Other than the liquidity there is the advantage of having a specific rollover product per script which helps you minimise impact cost. Another drawback for most small investors is that these days each lot is a minimum of Rs. 4-5 lakhs so minimum exposure that one can take is actually a bit steep.

Cheers
Sachit

Though large caps don't give high returns but there are quality large caps which assures steady growth for long term.
Currently the method I use is to buy futures contract for it for 3 months and then sell it irrespective of what price it is at and replace it with another futures contract for next three months, so mentally I am holding it for long term. This way I keep replacing every 3 month.
What other ways can a value investors use to leverage for long term ?
I read somewhere there is a way to purchase leveraged ETF for long term, Is it possible in India ?

Disclosure: Bought some Deepak Fertilizers today

Not expecting a huge upside even if profits reach Rs 200cr. Find the HDFC Sec target of Rs 190-200 realistic. What is the PE that a company like this should get? Current market cap is Rs 1361cr. So about 46% return if share reaches a PE of 10 with profit of 200cr.