IT sector at reasonable valuations: We elaborated earlier that IT stock’s valuation has corrected 17%-49% and Nifty IT index valuation corrected by 27%. Since then, valuations have inched up but valuation is broadly within the reasonable band (albeit at higher side of the band) adjusted for RoCE & growth rate expansion post-pandemic.

Bullish momentum which spilled over from October series in the form of short covering was held intact as bulls were unperturbed by any worries on global front. November series also witnessed fresh All time highs being registered on a closing basis. Bullish sentiments were distinctly visible as participants were confident of rolling over their bullish bets which was evident in high roll cost in Nifty. Last time Nifty had witnessed such a high roll cost was way back in September’20 series.

We believe BEL will regain and sustain double digit revenue growth in FY23-24, based on strong order book position, strong project line-ups, and easing of supply chains. Order book stands at INR 52,795 Cr and after adjusting for Triton Electric vehicle contract of INR 8,060 Cr, order book would be INR 60,855 cr. With strong order book in hand and parallel execution capability for multiple platforms, BEL has a strong P/L growth visibility. Further, it is emerging as a key beneficiary of increase in defence capital expenditure.

Balaji Amines Ltd. (BAL) posted robust growth on YoY basis, however performance on sequential basis was muted. Top line came slightly below expectations, primairly due to underperformance by the standalone business, while gross profit margin was under pressure despite stable raw material prices impacting profitability. Balaji Specialty Chemicals (BSC) contined its robust performance on strong realisations.

Companies like BDL (CMP INR 988, Mcap INR 18,105 cr) , HAL (CMP INR 2501, Mcap 83,640 cr) and BEL ( CMP INR 108, Mcap INR 78,836 cr) among PSU’s and PTC Industries (CMP INR 2859, Mcap INR 3,745 cr), Paras Defense (CMP INR 639, Mcap INR 2,490 cr), Data Patterns (CMP INR 1335, Mcap INR 6,930 cr) and SOLAR industries (CMP INR 3935, Mcap INR 35,611 cr) among private companies are better placed to exploit the upcoming opportunity

We expect the domestic plastic labware market expected to grow at a healthy rate of ~16% and players with quality products, wide distribution reliability and competitive pricing to outperform the sector, where Tarsons surpasses peers. The company’s in-house manufacturing capability provides a competitive edge. Moreover, Tarsons has a strong and well-diversified distribution network across India and a diversified product portfolio with 1,700+ SKUs across 300 products, which is difficult to replicate

Based on valuation correction and expected likelihood broadly unchanged guidance/commentary in 1QFY23. Our preferred pick to play IT stocks in near terms is Infosys (valuations corrected 26%, price by 18%) and TECHM (valuation down 38%, price – 32%) among large caps. Among mid-caps preferred picks are: LTI (valuation -49%, price – 42%) and LTTS (valuation -33%, price -23%). Under volatile/uncertain scenario, we prefer large caps or large mid-caps over small caps

Balance sheet strength continues along with capex announcements

The Shift: Changing business orientation

Gaining traction as pieces fall in place