APSEZ is well on track to cross its revised cargo volume guidance of 400 MMT during FY24. It continues to gain market share while generating strong cash flows and maintaining its leverage position, with a net debt-to-EBITDA ratio of 2.5x as of Dec’23. We increase our volume estimates by 2-3% for FY24-26. Over FY24-26, we expect APSEZ to register 10% volume growth and a CAGR of 15%/16%/18% in revenue/EBITDA/PAT. With consistent outperformance in cargo volumes, we increase the target multiple to 17x EV/EBITDA (earlier 16x) and reiterate our BUY rating with a revised TP of INR1,600.
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