Robust Order Book To Drive Growth; Retain BUY
Est. Vs. Actual for Q3FY26: Revenue – BEAT; EBITDA Margin – MISS; PAT – BEAT
Change in Estimates post Q3FY26 (Abs)
FY26E/FY27E: Revenue: 14%/12%; EBITDA: 4%/3% PAT: 14%/10%
Recommendation Rationale
• Strong & Well-diversified Order Book Ensuring Revenue Visibility: The company’s order book position, including L1 projects, stands at Rs 24,965 Cr, comprising Roads, Railways, Transmission, Telecom/Optical Fibre, and Tunnel works, providing healthy revenue visibility for the next 24–36 months. A pick up in revenue is due to the oil & gas sector, and it is expected to contribute further Rs 1,000 Cr in FY27. We expect revenue to grow at 17% CAGR over FY25–FY27E.
• Order Inflow to Pick Up in Q4FY26: For 9MFY26, the order inflow stood at Rs 4,800 Cr and project awarding activity is expected to gain momentum. The management is expecting total order inflow of Rs 10,000 Cr in FY26 and Rs 20,000 Cr in FY27. As per the updated guidelines from the MLA and the Ministry, the qualification norms and project sizes have been enhanced. The management remains confident of meeting its inflow target, supported by a strong execution track record and diversified capabilities.
• Robust Tender Pipeline Supported by Balanced Segment Exposure: The bidding pipeline remains robust at more than Rs 1 Lc Cr in Highway projects and Rs 2 Lc Cr from Railways projects. Management has already bid for Rs 16,000 Cr in highway projects and Rs 4,000 Cr in tunnel and hydro, and plans to bid in projects worth Rs 20,000 Cr in the Oil & Gas sector.
Sector Outlook: Cautiously Positive
Company Outlook & Guidance: The company has revised its guidance for revenue growth to be around Rs 3,000 Cr in Q4FY26 and expects 10%-15% growth in FY27. EBITDA margins are revised from11-13% to be around 11-12%.
Current Valuation: 10.5x FY27E EPS (Earlier Valuation: 10.5x FY27E EPS) and HAM, BOT, and transmission assets at 1x book value.
Current TP: Rs 1,540/Share (Earlier TP: Rs 1,420/share)
Recommendation: We maintain our BUY rating on the company.
Financial Performance
GR Infraprojects Ltd. (GRIL) reported in Q3FY26 revenue of Rs 2,039 Cr, up 36% YoY, the increase in revenue is primarily on account of execution in oil & gas, power and transmission. The company reported EBITDA of Rs 206 Cr, up 7% YoY, and PAT of Rs 232 Cr, up 38% YoY. EBITDA margins for Q3FY26 were reported at 10.1%, compared to our estimate of 11.4% and 12.8% in Q3FY25. The decrease is due to one-time claims income of Rs 38 Cr, recognised in Q3FY25. Outlook: GRIL anticipates strong order inflows, underpinned by a robust bidding pipeline across multiple sectors, particularly in EPC and HAM projects led by NHAI. Beyond roads, the company is actively exploring opportunities in railways, ropeways, T&D, and telecom segments, which present significant growth potential. This diversified project portfolio is expected to enable GRIL to leverage its execution capabilities across various infrastructure domains and capitalise on the sector’s upcoming expansion.
Valuation & Recommendation
The stock is currently trading at an implied PE of 11x/10x FY26E/FY27E EPS. We value the stock at 10.5x FY27E EPS and maintain a BUY rating on the stock with a target price of Rs 1,540/share, implying an upside of 55% from the CMP.
