In my piece of 26th July 2014, I had expressed mild surprise over the fact that Dolly Khanna aka Rajiv Khanna had bought Avanti Feeds. I surmised that Dolly is a conservative investor on the basis that she has never bought any Bank or Pharma stocks (which are exposed to RBI/ FDA risks) but has instead always bought stocks with no external risk factors (such as makers of sanitaryware, plastic, paper, cookers, shoes, etc). My theory was that Avanti Feeds is exposed to grave and uncontrollable risk factors such as disease, cyclone etc and that Dolly would not be comfortable in that situation.
Whether the theory is right or not is not known. We will have to study more of Dolly’s stock picks to reach a definite conclusion one way or the other.
The theory that Dolly has sold off her holdings in Avanti Feeds is based on the fact that her name does not appear in the list of major shareholders as of 31st December 2014. It is possible that Dolly might be holding on to some shares. However, given her pattern of making investments, this appears unlikely. Dolly is either wholly in or wholly out. She does not believe in half-hearted measures.
Dolly has made quite a packet from Avanti Feeds during her short stint. Assuming she bought her chunk of 91,500 shares on 15th May 2014 (mid-way in the April to June 2014 quarter), her purchase price would be about Rs. 535. Assuming she sold her holdings on 15th November 2014 (mid-way in the October to December 2014 quarter), her sale price would be about Rs. 1809. This means that Dolly has raked in a mammoth 238% in just a couple of months.
What Dolly has done with the sale proceeds is another issue of great interest to us.
The information available up to date shows that Dolly has bought a chunk of 3,82,454 shares of Asian Granito, a micro-cap, in the December 2014 quarter. The investment is worth about Rs. 6.11 crore at the CMP.
We need to keep a red alert to see if Dolly has made any other additions to her portfolio in the December 2014 quarter.
Looks like she has exited Hawkins Cooker, Avanti Feeds and Manjushree Technopack, which indictes that she has encashed 43 cr. Further, she has reduced exposure in RS Software, Aditya Birla Chemicals, Paper Products, Cera and Selan. So gross selling of 50 Cr.
Now we need to see where this fund has been utilized.
this is poor article. you made lots of assumption. how can you assume at what rate she sold or even sold completely. why shoot gun in the air ?
The assumption that she sold all her shares is flawed.She may have sold some shares which may have brought her shareholding to less than one percent.
Hi Arjun, you kinna got it wrong.. There r various instances in which she has trimmed her position b it the likes of cera, rs soft, selan etc. There is all possibility tat she has just taken out her capital out. Or booked profit
nice article
Rajesh from which angle it looks nice ?
why you guys are criticizing arjun? He gives his opinion, if you do not like it do not follow him.
Dear Sumit, thanks for your concern but I don’t think one can, or should, object to criticism. We are all on a steep learning curve. All comments, supportive or critical, are welcome.
That’s good of you.
I think some of the readers are right here. It is not that she might have sold completely. Volumes In Avanti Feeds during the quarter do not suggest any big ticket offloading… It is just possible that she might be selling slowly and holdings might have come shade below 1%. Also I do not agree that either Dolly is there 100% or not at all as we do not have any proof of that as we only discuss of those investments where her shareholding crosses more than 1% in quarterly public filings.. Also I do not agree that she is averse to invest in pharma/banks. It is quite possible that banks and big pharma have huge market caps which runs in multiple of millions/billions of dollars and her investment is not big enough to qualify as 1% of banks as per quarterly filings.. I am an avid DOLLY fan and i have done volume check/deliverable quantity before and after her name appears and disappears in the quarterly filings..Given a choice I might agree that( though I am not sure over here too) that she might buy all in one quarter but selling all one one quarter and disappearing in thin air just like it appears highly unlikely all the more when there is no substantial underlying heavy volume/bulk deal/ in sync with her quantity..During the quarter Oct-Dec 2014 when she is presumed to have sold her holdings in Avanti Feeds the total deliverable quantity in the whole 1Oct-31Dec quarter is only 136328 shares and to assume that she sold 91500 shares accounting 67%+ volume of all deliverable quantity without any sharp deterioration in price is highly unlikely..The only plausible answer her is her holding has fallen below 1%. how much below she only knows..Cheers..
great work Amit suported by data. Avanti Feed is still a rock solid story with huge opp size due to whole world relishing shrimps full of good cholestrol n omega 3 .u wont find a better set of promiters . they are narayan murthy of feed industry with grt execution track record.Roce is awesome.due to grt work by Mpeda no chance of disease.huge wealth still to b created by Avanti. more importantly first Hni investor Girish Gulati hasnt sold anything inspite of sitting on a 20 bagger.
those who don’t even hold this shares will come out loud shouting on the selling price assumptions. Guys, let us just take it simple as ‘dolly khanna sold some shares of this company’ that’s it.. why this hoopla over selling price.. This chap is doing a good work, which I am sure many of us won’t be able to track even if we glued to our computer/tv screens. let him do what he does the best without any judgement..
well done arjun keep the cylinders firing
What about IFB Agro? I m into it due to Dolly news but sitting at loss. If case is like yours then she may sell this one as well.
You can’t make money on borrowed knowledge!
Well, excellent answer.
Arjun !
Mate u rock ! All this info & efforts ur putting in are highly appreciative .
Carry on the gud work !!