The Defence stocks within our coverage universe have delivered 58% returns in the last three months, 75% returns in the last six months, 148% returns in the last 12 months and 776% returns in the last three years, buoyed by healthy order books, revenue expansion and the government’s major push for indigenization in the Defence secto
JB Pharma offers a healthy cocktail of a robust domestic franchise, niche CMO presence and measured exports strategy, aided by peerless execution. Having primarily grown organically until FY2022 and later on aided by benefits from acquired brands, JB has handsomely outperformed the IPM in the past decade by ~600 bps and currently ranks 22 in the IPM. Backed by improved MR productivity in India amid a healthy CMO order book and steady exports traction, we expect strong 17%/19% EBITDA/PAT CAGRs over FY2024-27E for JB. We initiate coverage on JB with BUY and FV of Rs2,025 (36X Sep 2026E EPS), implying a 15% upside to CMP
We reiterate our conviction on banks with a strong balance sheet and formidable retail deposit franchise, which are likely to continue gaining market share, with ICICIBC (BUY, TP: INR 1,325), SBIN (BUY, TP: INR 1,040), and KMB (BUY, TP: INR 2,025) being our top picks amongst large banks
We maintain our BUY rating on Gabriel India led by double digit margin guidance in medium term, ambition to grow ahead of industry, presence with top EV players such as Ola Electric, healthy RoCE profile (20%+) and cash positive B/S. We expect Sales/PAT at GIL to grow at 9%/24% CAGR over FY24-26E. We value Gabriel India at ₹600 i.e. 30x P/E on FY26E
Focusing on boosting growth and on stability through continuing emphasis on infra and consumption inducing measures, the Budget is likely to be positive for Indian equity. Consumer and infra/capital goods sectors are likely to be the main beneficiaries. Despite the likely acceleration of revenue spending and the continued high growth in public capex, with favourable receipts, fiscal consolidation is likely to continue. We expect the FY25 fiscal deficit to be 5% of GDP. There is little reason to expect a populist budget
After a meteoric rise of benchmark indices in FY24, the bull run continues unabated in FY25, notwithstanding general election-led market volatilities. So far in FY25, the benchmark indices Nifty 50, Nifty midcap 100 and Nifty Small cap 100 have delivered remarkable returns of 9%, 18% and 23% respectively. These performances follow massive returns of 29%,60% and 70% respectively generated by these indices in FY24. Against the backdrop of these unprecedented returns, it becomes imperative to analyse if these are driven by earnings upgrades of companies or simply valuation expansion.
From the recent high, Bank Nifty has corrected more than 1000 points which we believe is a running correction in an overall uptrend. Bank Nifty has now reached near to support level of 51800-52000 levels. In the option segment we have seen put writing at 51500-52000 levels. We therefore believe Bank Nifty is likely to trend higher till 16 July 2024 expiry. We recommend a Bull Call Spread strategy in Bank Nifty to profit from this view
Sky Gold has acquired Sparkling Chains Pvt/Starmangalsutra Pvt for INR26cr/INR24cr. It will issue 4,17,542 shares to the shareholders of Sparkling Chains Pvt and Starmangalsutra Pvt on a preferential basis. Apart from this, promoters have lent interest free loans of ~INR38cr, which will be paid off. These acquisitions will help increase SKYGOLD’s addressable market in gold jewellery and diversify its product base. We recently initiated coverage on SKYGOLD which designs and produces gold jewellery. It operates in the casting jewellery space, which accounts for 35% of total jewellery sales in India
NIFTY is currently trading at 18.5x 1-year forward EPS, which is at 3.6% discount to 15-year average of 19.2x. Base Case: we value NIFTY at 3% discount to 15-year average PE (18.6x) with March26 EPS of 1417 and arrive at 12-month target of 26398 (25816 earlier). Bull Case: we value NIFTY at 5% premium to 15-year average PE 20x and arrive at bull case target of 28575 (27102 earlier). Bear case: Nifty can trade at 10% discount to LPA with a target of 24493 (23235 earlier)
MCX options volume is scaling new highs and the futures volume is catching up. Post the tech transition in Oct-2023, the options volume is up 60% and the futures volume is at a multi-quarter high. We believe MCX will be the least impacted by the ongoing regulatory risk
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