Strong start to the festive season!
According to the RBI, total electronic payments surged to INR11.3t on 22nd Sep’25, nearly ten times higher than the INR1.18t recorded the previous day. This sharp spike was primarily driven by the recent GST rate cut and a strong boost in festive season consumption, reflecting heightened transaction activity across retail and e-commerce channels.
According to the players in the automotive industry, there has been a surge in demand for cars and two-wheelers following the GST rate cut. This sudden uptick in vehicle sales has led to capacity constraints across the logistics sector. Both transporters and service providers struggle to meet the heightened movement requirements of OEMs and dealers during the ongoing festive and post-GST revival phase.
With the consolidation of express logistics players, particularly following Delhivery’s acquisition of Ecom Express, the company is expected to capitalize on the surge in festive season volumes and strengthen its market position. Furthermore, consumption activity, which had moderated amid the anticipation of GST rate cuts, is now showing a sharp rebound post the rate reduction, supporting broad-based demand recovery across major product categories in the upcoming months.
Management, through its press release, announced a strong start to the festive season with the company processing more than 104.4m shipments (including Express and Part Truck Load (PTL) segments) during Sep’25. Delhivery, with >20% volume market share, is the largest 3PL express parcel player in India and is strategically positioned to capture disproportionate benefits from this growth. The company’s pan-India reach spans over 18,800 pin codes, supported by a modern integrated network of mega-gateways, automated sortation centers, and a high-capacity trucking fleet.
Delhivery’s ability to serve high-growth sub-segments such as D2C brands and SME shippers provides an additional growth lever beyond large marketplaces.
Valuation and view
Delhivery is well-positioned for future growth, supported by strong momentum in its core transportation businesses and a clear focus on profitability. With Express Parcel and PTL segments delivering consistent volume growth and healthy service EBITDA margins, the company expects to sustain 16-18% margins over the next two years.
The integration of Ecom Express is set to enhance network efficiency and reduce capital intensity, while new services like Delhivery Direct and Rapid offer long-term growth potential in on-demand and time-sensitive logistics.
We expect the company to report a CAGR of 14%/38%/53% in sales/ EBITDA/ APAT over FY25-28. Reiterate BUY with a TP of INR540 (based on DCF valuation)
