I predicted Trump would win when the odds were against him
Old-timers may remember that in 2016, Poll Pundits had predicted that Donald Trump did not have much of a chance against the then favourite Hillary Clinton.
However, the Pundits got their prediction wrong and Trump stormed into power.
Jeffrey Gundlach, the Billionaire investor, was one of the lone voices who had taken a contrary stance.
“Back in 2016, when Trump was little more than an asterisk in the betting odds, I predicted he was going to win,” he said with justified pride in his voice.
“This one is much more murky, but in my eyes it favors a Trump win,” he added.
“Mind you, my conviction is way lower than it was four years ago,” he cautioned.
Gundlach’s theory appears to be correct if we go by the latest Exit Polls.
Trump now ahead in Arizona in the RCP index of polls. 2 weeks ago, Biden was leading by an avg of 4. If Trump takes FL, NC, AZ, OH, he basically has to take PA or MI to win (given Georgia doesn’t flip, which hasn’t since ‘92 when Clinton won with just 43%) https://t.co/8MRQWDyU9j
— Joe Concha (@JoeConchaTV) October 31, 2020
Stock Markets prefer a known Devil than an unknown one
It is elementary that stock markets prefer stability and certainty rather than venturing into unknown territory.
Trump is committed to the well-being of the economy and the stock markets as he has repeatedly proclaimed.
“Stock Markets will hit new highs if President Trump wins. Tremendous growth like never before. If Biden wins, it’s strangulation. Not good,” he said in his latest tweet.
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) October 20, 2020
In contrast, Joe Biden appears to have a leftist/ socialist ideology and is opposed to capitalism and the stock markets.
He has pledged to increase capital gains tax, which will send the markets into a tailspin.
Joe Biden’s plan to increase the capital gains tax could lead to a large-scale sell-off of stocks, according to economic analyses. https://t.co/Wi8OOykWxR
— CNBC (@CNBC) September 21, 2020
Jeffrey Gundlach confirmed that this line of thinking is correct.
“You might dislike Trump or some of his policies, but risk is not what you’re getting with him, particularly compared to turning the presidency over to another party, and particularly when that party’s candidate isn’t saying what some of his policy positions are,” he said.
“Markets don’t like uncertainty, and with Trump, I think you have more certainty. With Biden, you have peak uncertainty because there’s been very little information given to the public,” he added.
“We have to discount the probability of outright socialist policies with outrageous amount of deficit spending. That would pose a big problem for stock and bond markets,” he warned.
Gundlach described Kamala Harris as “one of the most left-leaning people in all of the Senate”.
He advised Americans to consider the possibility that a Biden victory could mean that at some point within the next four years, Harris will ascend to the presidency.
I am apolitical and bipartisan
Gundlach knows that he will come under relentless attack from Biden’s supporters and the leftists for predicting a Trump victory.
He hastened to clarify that he is apolitical and bipartisan.
“I don’t have a Republican voice. I actually don’t like the Republicans, and I don’t like the Democrats. I used to be a Democrat, and I’ve voted for Republicans, but I simply don’t like the influence peddling that both parties do. They’ve really turned into the same party in terms of their sources of money,” he said.